外文翻譯---隱蔽性通貨膨脹的影響及其應(yīng)用-精品講述

1、中文2640字本科畢業(yè)論文設(shè)計(jì)外 文 翻 譯外文出處 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg,2021,173-182 外文作者 Cengiz Kahraman,Tufan Demirel,and Nihan Demirel 原文：Effects of Inflation under Fuzziness and Some ApplicationsAbstract:This chapter presents the ways of incorporating the parameter fuzzy inflation to the engineering econom

2、y analyses. Inflation is a financial parameter difficult to estimate. The fuzzy set theory gives us the possibility of converting linguistic expressions about inflation estimates to numerical values. In the chapter, discounted cash flow techniques including these fuzzy expressions and some numerical

3、 examples are given. The obtained results show the interval of the worst and the best possible outcomes when fuzzy inflation rates are taken into account. 1 IntroductionInflation is an increase in the amount of money necessary to obtain the same amount of product or service before the inflated price

4、 was present. With the inflation in anytime prices rise and the purchasing power decreases, it takes more dollars for the same amount of goods or services. Deflation is the opposite of inflation. It has the oppositeeffects, with deflation prices decrease and the purchasing power increases. With the

5、deflation, it takes fewer dollars in the future to buy the same amount of goods or services as it does today. The governments can be face to face with the inflation much more commonly than deflation at national economy (Blank and Tarquin 2002,Sharp-Bette and Park 1990, Degarmo et al. 1990, G.nen 199

6、0, Young 1993).Most people are undoubtedly aware that inflation has to do with price increases. What is perhaps less well-known is that the meaning of the word inflation has changed somewhat over time. Originally the word inflation was used to describe a characteristic of money that its value was er

7、oded. This happens when all prices in an economy rise at the same rate over time. When all prices rise at the same rate,households incomes (for example wages) increase as much as their expenses. This means that households have to pay more for the same quantity of goods. However,neither household con

8、sumption nor its actual value (utility) is affected when all prices rise at the same rate.Over time, however, the meaning of the word inflation has changed somewhat. Today it is often used synonymously with the words price increase and can there by describe any kind of price rises, not just increase

9、s in all prices. For example, one often hears of wage inflation, domestic inflation or imported inflation. None of these terms mean an increase in all prices. Rather, they refer to rises in the prices of certain specific goods or services.The most common and most well-known measure of inflation is t

10、he change in the consumer price index - the CPI. The CPI is a so-called cost-of-living index or compensation index. This means that the CPI measures how consumers cost of living changes over time. If consumers incomes increase at the same rate as their cost of living, their utility will be unchanged

11、 over time. The CPI is often used for exactly this purpose - as a basis for adjusting pensions or determining how compensation clauses in different agreements should be interpreted.To adjust for the effects of inflation in project evaluation, most authors prefer to use a general index, such as the C

12、onsumers Price Index. The reason is as follows: Since it is the investors' real income or purchasing power that we seek to enhance,there is a slight advantage in choosing an index of Consumer Goods' prices such as the CPI. The changeable value of currency is the reason of inflation. With the

13、 inflation the currency value goes down. The inflation and deflation can be occurred as higher prices for food, cars, and other purchased commodities and services for the people. On the other hand for the business and government, inflation has eroded the purchasingpower of savings and earnings, if i

14、nterest rates and salary raises have not kept pace with general price trends. Inflation types are shown below:Cost push inflation: Increases in producers costs that are passed along to customers,sometimes with disproportionate escalations that push prices up. Demand-pull inflation: Excessive spendin

15、g power of consumers, sometimes obtained at the expense of savings that pulls prices up.When the literature is searched, we can see that there are few works on fuzzy inflation.Kahraman and Tolga (1995) examine the effects of fuzzy inflation rate on aftertaxrate calculations. De and Goswami (2006) pr

16、esent an EOQ model with fuzzyinflation rate and fuzzy deterioration rate when a delay in payment is permissible.2 Relation between Inflation and InterestInflation affects everyone with some degree. The degree of inflation affects the consequences when inflation is mild, the economy prospers. When in

17、flation is moderate,increased demand pulls prices still higher. When inflation is severe, prices rise much faster than wages do. When inflation is hyperinflation (this is the most dangerous level of inflation), this uncontrolled inflation destroys a nations economy (Park2006). Hyperinflation is a pr

18、oblem in countries where political instability, overspending by the government, weak international trade balances, etc., is present (Sharp-Betteand Park 1990). When the government has inflation in its economy, first of all it pays attention to credit restrictions, wage controls, contraction of the m

19、oney supply, reduction in demand by raising taxes, increased demand by reducing taxes, enlarged supply of goods through greater productivity stimulated by investment incentives and wage-price guidelines backed by political persuasion to manage inflation and its effects on the economy (Park 2006). On

20、 the other hand the government can redefine the currency in terms of the currency of another country, control banks and corporations, and control of the flow of capital into and out of the country in order to decrease inflation(Sharp-Bette and Park 1990).Most of the engineering economists are more i

21、nterested in the effects of inflation than its causes and corrections. Due to inflation, a dollar assumes different values at different times. The dollars do not have the same value for yesterday, today and tomorrow. The engineering economists have to predict the dollars values and organize their wo

22、rks by concerning with inflation and also they have to research what would happen if inflation became high level such as moderate or severe.2.1 Inflation MeasurementThe measurement of inflation is difficult because the prices of different goods and services do not increase or decrease by the same am

23、ount, they change at different times by the different amounts. The calculation of a general inflation rate can be changed by geographical differences in prices and different buying habits of consumers.The whole sale price index, producer price index, and consumer price index are used for the measure

24、ment of inflation rates. The consumer price index is the most commonly used technique for the inflation rate measurement.The whole sale price index (WPI): This index measures inflation at the whole sale level for both consumer and industrial goods.Producer price index (PPI): This index measures aver

25、age changes in prices receivedby producers of all commodities. On the other hand PPI is a composite that measures changes in prices paid for selected goods and services used by producers(Blank and Tarquin 2002).Consumer price index (CPI): For calculation of CPI, prices for goods are obtained monthly

26、 and are averaged according to demographic distributions. Then the prices are weighted according to the expenditure proportions of the typical family (Park2006). CPI is a composite that measures changes in prices paid for selected goods and services used by ultimate consumers (Blank and Tarquin 2002

27、). In CPI seven different things are measured as fixed market basket of goods, foods and beverages,housing, apparel and upkeep, transportation, medical care, entertainment, and other (education, personal care, etc.). This index shows the effect of retail price changes on a selected standard of livin

28、g.2.2 Impact of InflationThe analysts have to be interested in the impact of inflation on economic evaluations. There are two basic methods for researchers in the literature for consideration of inflation in their calculations.Constant (real) dollars: All cash flows are converted to money units that

29、 have constant purchasing power for eliminating inflation effects. It is generally easier to estimate future costs in constant dollars because the estimator is familiar with todays values. On the other hand there are two weaknesses limiting the usefulness of the constant dollar: tax effects are igno

30、red and no provision is made for differences inescalation rates among price and cost components (Biermann and Smidt 1990). It is denoted “R$.Future dollars: In the amount of money units that are called future dollars actually exchanged at the time of each transaction for estimating cash flows. Futur

31、e dollars are sometimes called then-current dollars, nominal dollars, or actual dollars. It is denoted as “A$It is a simple matter to convert estimates in real dollar flow to actual dollar flow when inflation is assumed to be a constant rate. To make comparisons between monetary amounts which occur

32、in different time periods, the different-valued dollars must first be converted to constant value dollars in order to represent the same purchasing power over time (Sharp-Bette and Park 1990).As an economic evaluation, when the rate of inflation increases, there is a corresponding increase in the ma

33、rket interest rate. Inflation is differential rather than uniform. Goods and services prices do not always change proportionately. Including the effect of inflation is a second-order refinement for economic evaluations; the first-order refinement was the inclusion of the effect of taxes on basic cas

34、h flow.For eliminating weaknesses of the constant dollar approach, the analysts can use after-tax actual cash flow comparisons. In the literature, there are three different comparisons for actual cash flows:No responsive charges in after-tax analysis.Multiple inflation rates in an after-tax analysis

35、.After-tax modified cash flow comparison.譯文：隱蔽性通貨膨脹的影響及其應(yīng)用摘要：這個(gè)章節(jié)主要包擴(kuò)隱蔽性通貨膨脹分析方法。通貨膨脹是一個(gè)難以估計(jì)的財(cái)政參數(shù)。隱蔽性通貨膨脹理論告訴我們?nèi)绾伪磉_(dá)通貨膨脹以及如何用數(shù)值表達(dá)隱蔽性通貨膨脹。在本章節(jié)中，忽略了現(xiàn)金流量的影響，表述了隱蔽性的概念以及列舉一些數(shù)據(jù)。結(jié)果顯示在考慮了隱蔽性通貨膨脹后的最壞可能結(jié)果和最好可能結(jié)果結(jié)果的差距。一、簡(jiǎn)介:通貨膨脹概念指的是貨幣的增長(zhǎng)沒(méi)有與之對(duì)應(yīng)的相同數(shù)量的產(chǎn)品或者效勞，在通貨膨脹下物價(jià)是當(dāng)前物價(jià)。在通貨膨脹時(shí)期，隨著物價(jià)上升貨幣購(gòu)置力會(huì)減少，將來(lái)將花費(fèi)更多的美元才得到和今天相同

36、數(shù)量的產(chǎn)品或效勞。通貨緊縮是通貨膨脹的對(duì)立面起到相反的效果，當(dāng)通貨緊縮時(shí)期，物價(jià)下降和貨幣購(gòu)置力增加，將來(lái)將花費(fèi)更少的美元得到和今天相同的數(shù)量產(chǎn)品或效勞。通常情況下，政府面對(duì)通貨膨脹情況多于通貨緊縮的情況Blank and Tarquin 2002,Sharp-Bette and Park 1990, Degarmo et al. 1990, G.nen 1990, Young 1993。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，多數(shù)人認(rèn)為通貨膨脹必伴隨物價(jià)增加。但很少有人知道通貨膨脹一詞的意思已隨著時(shí)間的流逝發(fā)生改變了。最初通貨膨脹一詞用來(lái)描述價(jià)值被貶值的貨幣的特征。這發(fā)生在經(jīng)濟(jì)和物價(jià)同比增長(zhǎng)的時(shí)候。所有物價(jià)以相同的比率上

37、升時(shí)，家庭的收入例如工資增長(zhǎng)和家庭支出相同。這表示家庭必須為相同的數(shù)量的商品支付更多的貨幣。然而，在物價(jià)上升相同比率時(shí)，家庭支出和實(shí)際的價(jià)值效用均不受其影響隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的開(kāi)展，通貨膨脹一詞的意思有所改變。現(xiàn)在通貨膨脹經(jīng)常被定義為當(dāng)物價(jià)不同增長(zhǎng)時(shí)可以描述多種物價(jià)上漲，不只在所有物價(jià)相同比率增長(zhǎng)的情況。例如，我們經(jīng)常聽(tīng)說(shuō)工資通貨膨脹，國(guó)內(nèi)通貨膨脹或進(jìn)口通貨膨脹。這些并不意味著所有商品的價(jià)格都上漲。更確切地說(shuō)，他們指的是某些特定產(chǎn)品或效勞物價(jià)的上漲。計(jì)量通貨膨脹的最多最常用的方法是消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù) - CPI。CPI 是所謂的生活本錢(qián)指數(shù)或補(bǔ)償指數(shù)。 CPI 是用來(lái)測(cè)量消費(fèi)者生活本錢(qián)隨著時(shí)間的變化而變化。

38、如果消費(fèi)者的收入和生活本錢(qián)增長(zhǎng)相通，他們的效用隨著時(shí)間的流逝將是不變的。CPI 經(jīng)常被用來(lái)確定這樣的目標(biāo)即用于調(diào)整養(yǎng)老金或確定協(xié)議的補(bǔ)償條款應(yīng)該怎樣的得到的補(bǔ)償數(shù)。為調(diào)整工程評(píng)估中通貨膨脹的效果，多數(shù)作者喜歡使用一個(gè)常規(guī)的指數(shù)，例如消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)。理由如下：它是投資者的實(shí)際收入或我們?cè)噲D提高的購(gòu)置力，這是使用CPI的一個(gè)好處。貨幣的可變價(jià)值是通貨膨脹的原因。當(dāng)通貨膨脹時(shí)，貨幣價(jià)值下降。通貨膨脹和通貨緊縮更容易發(fā)生在如食物，汽車(chē)，等商品和效勞物價(jià)上升時(shí)時(shí)候。在另一方面對(duì)商業(yè)和政府而言，如果利率和工資薪酬的增加沒(méi)有跟上一般物價(jià)的增長(zhǎng)，那么通貨膨脹就會(huì)削弱了儲(chǔ)蓄和收入購(gòu)置力。通貨膨脹的類(lèi)型如下：本錢(qián)

39、推動(dòng)通貨膨脹：生產(chǎn)者的本錢(qián)增加轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者,從而本錢(qián)增長(zhǎng)不成比例的拉動(dòng)物價(jià)增長(zhǎng)需求拉動(dòng)通貨膨脹：過(guò)度的消費(fèi)能力限制了儲(chǔ)蓄增長(zhǎng)，從而帶動(dòng)了物價(jià)的增長(zhǎng)。收索相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)隱藏的通貨膨脹導(dǎo)致失業(yè)。Kahraman 和 Tolga1995 年計(jì)算了隱蔽通貨膨脹的稅后影響。De 和 Goswami2006 年發(fā)表了一個(gè)關(guān)于測(cè)量隱蔽性通貨膨脹率和延期付款后隱蔽程度的EOQ模型。二通脹和利率之間的關(guān)系通貨膨脹在一定程度上影響每個(gè)人。通貨膨脹程度決定了通貨膨脹的影響程度。在溫和通貨膨脹下，經(jīng)濟(jì)緩慢增長(zhǎng)，日益增加的需求拉動(dòng)物價(jià)。在惡性通貨膨脹下，物價(jià)上漲高于工資上漲。當(dāng)處在惡性通貨膨脹時(shí)惡性通貨膨脹是通貨膨

40、脹之中危險(xiǎn)水平最高的，不受控制的通貨膨脹摧毀一個(gè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)水平 ( Park2006 )。當(dāng)一個(gè)國(guó)家政治不穩(wěn)定、政府過(guò)度支出、國(guó)際貿(mào)易失衡，等等夏普-Betteand 公園 1990 年將出現(xiàn)惡性通貨膨脹的問(wèn)題。當(dāng)一國(guó)政府經(jīng)濟(jì)上出現(xiàn)通貨膨脹時(shí)，首先該國(guó)信用貸款水平受到限制，其次工資水平受到限制，貨幣供應(yīng)量減少，稅收增加需求減少或稅收減少需求增加，說(shuō)服管理當(dāng)局增加投資或提高工資水平來(lái)刺激生產(chǎn)力從而帶動(dòng)商品供應(yīng)，在另一方面，為了減少通貨膨脹，國(guó)家也可以通過(guò)控制銀行和公司來(lái)控制現(xiàn)金的流入量和流出量比起通貨膨脹的原因和改良方法，大局部經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)通貨膨脹的影響更感興趣。由于通貨膨脹，一美元呈現(xiàn)不同的價(jià)值在不同的時(shí)期：一美元的價(jià)值在昨天，今天和明天各不相同。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家必須預(yù)測(cè)美元的價(jià)值，開(kāi)展工作關(guān)心通貨膨脹，而且他們必須研究：如果通貨膨脹程度上升到更高水平比方惡性通貨膨脹時(shí)，將會(huì)發(fā)生什么。通貨膨脹的