澳大利亞金融業(yè)：財(cái)報(bào)季風(fēng)險(xiǎn)呈下降趨勢(shì)

1、Credit Suisse4 February 2019 Asia Pacific/AustraliaEquity ResearchDiversified FinancialsAustralian Diversified FinancialsResearch AnalystsJames斜照璇，瞬PRE RESULTS COMMENTAndrew Adams 61 2 8205 4106 Anna Milne 61 2 8205 4369 Reporting season risks skewed to downsideWe generally see more downside risk am

2、ongst the diversified financials ahead of reporting season. However following a sector de-rating we expect that those who deliver on earnings could see a positive share price response.Results with downside earnings riskCGF: Despite a pre-announced result, we still see scope for downside risk. Flows

3、could disappoint, details in the result could raise concerns of further COE margin compression and discussion on regulatory tailwinds could be less optimistic than in the past.CPU: A deterioration in operating conditions late in 1H19E reduces the likelihood of an upgrade to FY19E guidance. While we

4、expect CPU can still meet its guidance, this could still disappoint some who were expecting an upgrade including consensus (who sit 4% above the guidance).NWL: Consensus earnings appear too high with this result holding the potential to see consensus downgrades to revenue and EBITDA margins.IFL: Whi

5、le the focus will be on the impact of APRA*s actions, the Royal Commission and ANZ acquisition, there is downside earnings risk due to a cost miss (higher cost inflation due to compliance / regulatory burden).PTM: Despite FuM being known and post balance date guidance on performance fees and investm

6、ent income, consensus forecasts look too high posing downside earnings risk. The flows outlook could also be bleak.HUB: There is potential for disappointment on revenue margins (client mix, competition) and EBITDA margin (cost inflation for client on-boardings).Results with mixed trends and low surp

7、rise resultsJHG: While inexpensive (9.5x), this result is unlikely to be a turning point with outflows likely to accelerate in 4Q18E and management likely to be cautious on the outlook. Any buy-back is likely to be tokenistic.ASX: A low surprise result given activity levels are known. Focus will be

8、on updates on some of the strategic initiatives (DLT, Sympli, data analytics).MFG: A low surprise result given FuM, flows and performance fees are preannounced and consensus forecasts seem fair.LNK: We see scope for a disappointing result in FA (account losses) and cautious commentary on Brexit to b

9、e offset by more optimistic commentary on PEXA, opportunities to deploy excess capital and FA (potential for repricings to offset regulatory headwinds, strong member growth).PPT: The first result under the new CEO / CFO could pose earnings risk due to a rebasing, however, we will also gain for the f

10、irst time insights into the new CEOs strategy (likely to include organic and inorganic aspects).DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seek

11、s to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.CP

12、U - NEUTRAL ($19.00 target price)Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesDate:13 February 2019Period:Half YearTime:Earnings Risk:Pre-MarketDownsideCredit Suisse estimatesBriefing and dial-in detailsManagement NPAT: US$176.3mn (US$166.8mn 1H18)CPU Management EPS (USD): 32.5cps (30.5cps 1H18)Inte

13、rim DPS (AUD): 21.0cps (19.0cps 1H18)10.00 am AEDTTeleconference onlySydney: +61 2 8088 0906; Melbourne: +61 3 8648 8889Code: 928 9542 6531H19E ForecastsWe are forecasting 1H19E USD Management NPAT of $176.3mn, up 6% on 1H18. We are forecasting USD Management EPS of 32.5cps, also up 6% YoY although

14、in constant currency terms this equates to 8% growth. This is below the FY19E EPS guidance run-rate of 10% growth but we expect an acceleration in growth in 2H19E with our FY19E forecasts slightly above the guidance. While there is no reliable 1H19E consensus, our FY19E forecasts are 3% below the IB

15、ES consensus for USD EPS.What to look forAt the FY18 result, CPUs FY19E guidance for 10% EPS growth was viewed as conservative with the market anticipating a guidance upgrade over the course of the year. However, the past six months have seen some headwinds emerge, especially late in the half. These

16、 include further Brexit uncertainty, an equity market fall, contraction of bond yields and lower activity levels. We therefore expect CPU to reiterate its FY19E guidance, rather than upgrade it, which could disappoint consensus which we estimate is 4% above the guidance. We see very little risk that

17、 the guidance is downgraded remembering that in November CPU confidently reaffirmed their FY19E guidance.There is scope for CPU to be more cautious on the medium-term outlook due to the slowing benefit from margin income as US bond yields have fallen over the past six months and the impact of inflat

18、ion in the US (which has not fallen in line with bond yields).We expect CPU to deliver a solid 1H19E result underpinned by: 1) higher margin income; 2) cost outs with US$26mn of incremental cost savings expected in FY19E; and 3) strong growth in US mortgage servicing. We expect these drivers alongsi

19、de organic revenue growth (e.g. inflation linked price increases) to more than offset lower activity levels in some business lines (e.g. class actions, corporate actions, stakeholder relationship management).An update on the Equatex acquisition which completed during the half.Credit Suisse ViewCompa

20、red to the broader financial services sector, CPUs 10% earnings growth rate is quite unique and quite attractive. We expect this result to deliver further growth underpinned by rising interest rates, cost outs and organic growth. While business conditions deteriorated late in the half we do not beli

21、eve this jeopardises CPUs ability to hit its FY19E guidance. Nevertheless this could disappoint those who were expecting a guidance upgrade and consensus earnings (who sit above the guidance) could be at risk of a downgrade.Figure 7: CPU Financial summaryComputershareCPU.AX Rating: NEUTRALTarget pri

22、ce: A$19.00In USDmn, unless otherwise statedYear ending 30 JuneProfit and loss (USSmn)FY17AFY18AFY19FFY20FFY21FRegister maintenance697.9710.3704.1708.1711.3Corporate actions125.8160.6150.2153.0156.6Business services785.9894.4948.0988.71,026.3Stakeholder relationship management79.894.869.270.171.0Emp

23、loyee share Plans220.5228.4266.0310.3316.0Communication services177.5181.6167.8168.9171.1Other26.630.831.532.633.8Total revenue2,114.02,300.92,336.82,431.72,486.0Total operating costs(1.573.9)(1,678.5)(1,642.7)(1,668.5)(1,664.6)Associate income0.70.2(1-1)(1.1)(1.1)Management EBITDA540.8622.6692.9762

24、.1820.4Depreciation & amortisation(59.2)(68.0)(77.1)(83.5)(85.6)EBIT481.6554.6615.8678.7734.8Borrowing costs(54.4)(62.1)(84.6)(95.1)(95.1)Profit before tax427.2492.5531.3583.6639.7Tax on operating activities(124.6)(139.6)(150.9)(165.5)(180.2)Outside equity interest(5.3)(8.3)(5.5)(5.5)(5.5)CPU Manage

25、ment NPAT297.3344.7374.9412.6454.0Amortisation post tax(39.3)(37.0)(37.4)(37.4)(37.4)Abnormals post tax8.4(7-6)0.00.00.0Statutory NPAT266.4300.1337.5375.3416.7Balance SheetFY17AFY18AFY19FFY20FFY21FCash4965077651,0461,350Receivables423429446456466Property, plant and equipment110115115115115Intangible

26、s2,3422,3282,4742,4212,368Other576509859859859Total Assets3,9473,8884,6594,8975,158Payables438445462472482Provisions7376767676Current Interest bearing liabilities117427847847847Non-Current Interest bearing liabilities1,4561.0541,0541,0541.054Other625553723765809Total Liabilities2,7102,5553,1613,2143

27、,268Contributed equity -ordinary shares00000Reserves(98)(148)(148)(148)(148)Retained profits1,3161.4551,6151,7941.995Outside equity interest2026323743Total Equity1,2371,3331,4981,6831,890Net Tangible Assets(1.125)(1,021)(1,008)(775)(521)Cash FlowsFY17AFY18AFY19FFY20FFY21FReceipts from customers2,201

28、2,3902,3372,4322,486Payment to suppliers and employees(1,671)(1.795)(1.643)(1,668)(1.665)Interest paid and borrowing costs(56)(63)(85)(95)(95)Interest received33000Incomes taxes paid(59)(87)(151)(165)(180)Other4065(0)00Operating Cash Flows458514458503547Payments for purchase of controlled entities(1

29、11)(121)000Payments for investments14000Payments for property, plant and equipment(34)(39)(39)(42)(43)Proceeds for asset sales90(12)000Other00000Investing Cash Flows(53)(169)(39)(42)(43)Proceeds from issues of ordinary shares00000Buy-back of ordinary shares(29)(69)000Proceeds from borrowings4661,337

30、000Repayment of borrowings(681)(1.354)000Dividends paid ordinary shares(130)(150)(178)(196)(216)Other(44)(81)000Financina Cash Flows(416)(317)(178)(196)(216)Total Cash Flows(12)29241265288Exchange rate variations(38)(18)161616Net Change in Cash(50)11257281304Andrew AdamsJames Cordukes, CFA+612 8205-

31、4106+612 8205-4858andrew.adam$credit-$ui$e.8miame$.corduke$credit-$ui$e.8mSource: ReutersCPU code:CPU.AXShare price:$17.90No. of shares (m)543RatingNEUTRALMarket cap (A$m)9,719Target priceAS19.00Weighting - ASX2000.37%TSR8.9%Weighting - software & services15.88%12mth Fwd PE18.3xAUDUSD0.72Valuation r

32、atios:FY17AFY18AFY19FFY20FFY21FCPU Management EPS (USD cps)54.463.469.076.083.6Statutory EPS (cps)48.855.262.269.176.7CPU Management EPS growth(1.2%)16.5%8.9%10.1%10.0%Avg Basic Shares (mn)546.3543.9543.0543.0543.0P/E23.8x20.4x18.8x17.0 x15.5xEV/EBITDA15.9x13.7x12.9x11.7x10.9xCPU Management EPS (AUD

33、 cps)72.381.795.3104.9115.4.growth(4.5%)12.9%16.7%10.1%10.0%Average AUDUSD0.750.780.720.720.72DPS (AUD cps)3640455054Payout ratio (% Management EPS)50%49%48%48%48%Net Dividend yield2.0%2.2%2.5%2.8%3.0%Franking level14%53%25%25%25%Gross Dividend Yield2.1%2.7%2.7%3.0%3.3%Book Value per share ($)2.232.

34、402.703.033.40ROE (Normalised)25.7%27.3%27.0%26.5%26.0%P/BV8.0 x7.4x6.6x5.9x5.3xFY17AFY18AFY19FFY20FFY21FRevenue Growth:Register maintenance(4%)2%(1%)1%0%Corporate actions(10%)28%(6%)2%2%Business services30%14%6%4%4%Stakeholder relationship management14%19%(27%)1%1%Employee share Plans(1%)4%16%17%2%

35、Communication services2%2%(8%)1%1%Other(20%)16%2%4%4%Revenue Growth7%9%2%4%2%Earnings Momentum:Revenue Growth7%9%2%4%2%Costs Growth9%7%(2%)2%(0%)Management EBITDA Growth2%15%11%10%8%EBIT Growth(0%)15%11%10%8%Pre-Tax Profit Growth(0%)15%8%10%10%Management NPAT Growth(2%)16%9%10%10%Key Ratios:EBITDA m

36、argin25.6%27.1%29.7%31.3%33.0%Tax rate29.2%28.3%28.4%28.4%28.2%Profit margin14.1%15.0%16.0%17.0%18.3%Gearing:Net debt / EBITDA2.0 x1.6x1.6x1.1x0.7xInterest coverage (interest to EBITDA)9.9x10.0 x8.2x8.0 x8.6xNet debt/ (Net debt + equity)47%43%44%34%23%Share Price Performance$12.00$10.00Source: Compa

37、ny data, Credit Suisse estimates$20.00$18.00$16.00$14.006Lcef8L68。8L40N 86.9S .6n BL._nr ,unf Bzew 8工毋 , ，uefCPU.AXXJOShare orice as of 1-Feb-19. 17:09CPU 1H19E result summaryFigure 8: CPU 1H19E result summaryin millions, unless otherwise stated1H18A2H18A1H19FVS.1H18vs. 2H18Profit & Loss (US$mn):Reg

38、ister maintenance330.8379.5328.3(1%)(13%)Corporate actions85.275.476.6(10%)2%Business services441.4453.0467.06%3%Stakeholder relationship management57.537.331.9(44%)(14%)Employee share plans106.5121.9106.70%(12%)Communication services91.490.282.0(10%)(9%)Other15.015.815.53%(2%)Total revenue1,127.81,

39、173.11,108.0(2%)(6%)Total operating costs(835.2)(843.3)(790.3)(5%)(6%)Associate income0.8(0.5)(0.5)Management EBITDA293.4329.3317.28%(4%)Depreciation & amortisation(32.5)(35.5)(36EBIT260.8293.8280.27%(5%)Borrowing costs(28.7)(33(37.0129%11%Profit before tax232.2260.3243.25%(7%)Tax on operating activ

40、ities(61.1)(78.4)(64.4)5%(18%)Outside equity interest(4.3)(4.0)(2.5)CPU Management NPAT166.8177.9176.36%(1%)Amortisation post tax(18.1)(18.9)(18.7)Abnormals post tax22.5(30.2)0.0Statutory NPAT171.2128.8157.6(8%)22%Average Shares (basic)546.3541.4543.0(1%)0%CPU Management EPS (cps)30.532.932.56%(1%)C

41、PU Management EPS (cps) - AUD39.342.544.814%6%Average AUDUSD0.780.770.72(7%)(6%)Statutory EPS (cps)31.323.829.0(7%)22%Dividends (AUD)19.021.021.011%0%.Payout ratio (% Mgt EPS)48%49%47%Franking0%100%25%Key Ratios:EBITDA margin26.0%28.1%28.6%+261 bp+56bpTax rate26.3%30.1%26.5%Profit margin14.8%15.2%15

42、.9%ROE26.8%27.5%26.2%-52bp-131bpDebt coverage:Net debt/EBITDA1.8x1.5x2.0 xInterest coverage (interest to EBITDA)10.2x9.8x8.6xNet debt / (Net debt + equity)46%42%48%Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesASX - UNDERPERFORM ($55.00 target price)Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesDate:P

43、eriod:14 February 2019 Half YearTime:Earnings Risk:Pre-MarketLow SurpriseCredit Suisse estimatesBriefing and dial-in detailsUnderlying NPAT: $234.9mn ($230.5mn 1H18)Underlying EPS: 121.3 cps(119.1cps 1H18)Interim DPS: 109.2cps (107.2cps 1H18)10.30 am AEDTDial-in: 1800 908 299 or +61 2 9007 8048Code:

44、 123 1021H19E ForecastsWe are forecasting 1H19E Underlying NPAT of $234.9mn which is up 2% on 1H18. While there is no reliable 1H19E consensus, our FY19E NPAT forecasts sit 1% below the IBES consensus. We are forecasting an interim DPS of 109.2c which is predicted on a 90% payout ratio, consistent w

45、ith ASXs dividend policy.What to look forWe expect updates on some of ASXs strategic investments including the progress of its upgrade to a distributed ledger based post-trade service, the roll out of its data analytics offering in early CY19 and its joint venture with Info Track to launch Sympli, a

46、n electronic property settlement service. While ASX is likely to talk positively about these developments we expect the benefit to earnings to be relatively small inFY19E.We expect 3% YoY revenue growth in 1H19E with positive growth in all business lines with the exception of Listing & Issuer Servic

47、es which was only down due an accounting policy change. Changes to the revenue recognition for initial and subsequent listing fees had a $15mn revenue impact in 1H19E, masking even strong growth in activity trends during the half. More specifically we expect:A3% YoY decline in Listing & Issuer Servi

48、ces as a result of accounting policy changes despite strong activity levels (capital raisings up 38% YoY benefiting from the Coles listing). We also expect strong growth in annual listing fees (+9%) due to price increases (+2.5%), strong markets last year (+5%) and new listings (+1.5%).6% YoY growth

49、 in Trading Services driven by 14% growth in Cash Equities Trading fees (turnover +15% YoY offset by slightly lower margins), growth in Information Services and 2% growth in Technical Services (higher connections).6% YoY growth in Equity Post-Trade Services due to a 7% increase in Cash Equities Sett

50、lement revenues (settlement activity +15%, higher rebates) and a 5% increase in Cash Equities Clearing revenues (clearing value +11%, higher rebates).4% YoY growth in Derivative and OTC Services driven by 5% growth in ASX24 Derivatives revenues (5% volume growth) and 5% growth in Austraclear revenue

51、s. We expect ASX Derivatives revenues to decline 7% (volumes down 10%, offset by higher fee margins). OTC clearing activity declined in 1H19E which is difficult to factor into .forecasts but the risk is to the downside.Cost growth of 8% in 1H19E with this 1H run-rate broadly in line with the FY19E c

52、ost growth guidance of 9%.Higher growth in interest and dividend income. We expect growth to be driven by high growth in average participant balances (CSe +15% YoY) and higher investment spreads as a result of the expansion of the BBSW.Credit Suisse ViewWith activity levels known, we expect the resu

53、lt will be low surprise. Rather the focus will be on the updates on data analytics offering and other strategic initiatives (DLT, Sympli). While the commentary will be positive on these initiatives the benefits are unlikely to be quantified and likely to remain small.Fiaure 9: ASX Financial summaryA

54、SXASX.AXRating: UNDERPERFORMTarget price: $55.00In AUDmn, unless otherwise statedYear ending 30 JuneProfit and loss (A$mn)FY17AFY18AFY19FFY20FFY21FListing & Issuer Services192.7220.6223.2235.6245.8.Annual Listing Fees79.385.893.8100.2106.8.Initial Listing Fees16.018.620.621.823.1.Subsequent Listing

55、Fees46.558.952.355.255.6.Issuer Services42.449.248.049.450.9.Other8.99.4Trading Services196.0209.9226.0244.2259.5.Cash Equities Trading Fees46.345.751.554.156.8.Information Services82.590.197.3108.2115.9.Technical Services67.274.177.281.986.8Equity Post-Trade Services104.4104.8111.3120.0125

56、.9.Cash Equities Clearing Fees53.351.954.959.362.4.Cash Equities Settlement Fees51.152.956.560.763.5Derivative & OTC Services269.1286.4294.2309.5322.5.ASX24 Derivatives197.4212.5220.3233.4243.9.ASX Derivatives21.721.919.920.521.3.Austraclear50.052.054.055.657.3Other Revenue1.91.0Operating R

57、evenues764.1822.7855.3910.0954.4Operating Expenses(180.9)(195.5)(213.1)(230.6)(248.4)EBITDA583.2627.2642.2679.4706.1Depreciation & Amortisation(46.0)(47.6)(50.1)(54.1)(57.9)EBIT537.2579.6592.0625.3648.2Dividends13.914.214.915.716.4Cash margins17.818.218.718.118.3Amounts owing to participants47.550.3

58、55.049.051.5Profit Before Tax616.4662.3680.6708.1734.4Tax(182.3)(197.0)(202.5)(210.6)(218.5)Underlying Profit After Tax434.1465.3478.2497.5515.9Abnormals0.0(20.2)0.00.00.0Reported Profit434.1445.1478.2497.5515.9Key AssumptionsFY17AFY18AFY19FFY20FFY21FListing Fees:Initial Capital Raised ($mn)14,65225

59、,69347,08230,00030,000.growth(38%)75%83%(36%)0%Subsequent Capital Raised ($mn)41,31656,02054,89151,51053,591.growth(25%)36%(2%)(6%)4%Cash Market:Daily Avg Value Traded ($bn)4.9284.8885.4875.7616.049.growth4%(1%)12%5%5%Value Traded ($bn)1.2471.2321,3881.4581,530.growth4%(1%)13%5%5%Value Cleared ($bn)

60、1,2051,1821,3011,3701,439.growth4%(2%)10%5%5%Dominant Settlement Messages (mn)1817.919.920.7J . V/.growth4%1%11%4%5%Average bp fee per $ Traded1.21 bp1.22bp1.17bp1.19bp1.19bpASX24 Derivatives:Volume of trades (000)142,418156,369162,918173,507182,183.growth4%10%4%6%5%Average Fee per Trade$1.39$1.36$1