【保顧】漳州2020年市場年報

20220211Part1

Part201PARTONEHONGGUANHUANJING12?分??2021分1全PMI熱?點全GDP

國家/區(qū)域2019（全年）中國6.11-6.83.24.9美國2.20.32-9.03-2.91英國1.3-2.08-21.46-9.58歐元區(qū)1.3-0.3-14.9-4.3圖：主要經(jīng)濟體制造業(yè)PMI走勢（%)??????70.0065.0060.0057.555.653.852.1?55.00?50.0045.0040.00?35.0030.00?美國歐元區(qū)英國中國wind2GDP0.7%?3.514.9%分分112.6%分6.8%圖：房地產(chǎn)、制造業(yè)、基建固定資產(chǎn)投資情況30.001011GDP3.2%-1.6%4.9%0.7%20.006.8010.0011.4%14.9%3.323.3%4.3%-3.501.8%2.6%6.3%6.8%PMI51.452.1954.9PMI53.6201012納PMI56.857.820105房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資制造業(yè)投資基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投資6wind3+2025性GDP樓(1.25)55.5%分分分1分性?2

3?20354??5樓4M2shibor1.4%18-196BP缺25BP熱,缺圖：我國貨幣供應(yīng)量、社會融資規(guī)模及市場利率走勢全50bp10bp50bp20bpGDP60,00012.00M250,00010.0011.1010.5040,00030,0008.40Q111Q29.7Q38.720,0002.882.8310,00001.402019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-098新增社會融資規(guī)模（億元）M2同比(%)SHIBOR:3個月(%)wind5全分全分分12分圖：近年中央會議對房地產(chǎn)的表述GDP熱6.806.706.506.406.406.206.006.004.902018.42018.10/122020.33.202020.6分2020.82020.9分123412341232018.7.312019.42019.7分2020.4.172020.7.242020.8.26-6.802020.12.11分6全全2020分?邊際放松，刺激需求政策密集期（7-10月），調(diào)控過熱城市政策進入平穩(wěn)期（11-12月），有松有緊7分犀30%?20%?圖：房企信托融資情況圖：房企發(fā)債總量及全國土拍溢價率（億元，%）1,8001,600發(fā)債規(guī)模上漲土拍溢價明顯三道紅線出臺后，融資收緊，溢價率下調(diào)；同時發(fā)債作為融資渠道的重要補充，規(guī)模同比保持上漲。?5分?5432?8分80.0%60.0%40.0%1,4001,2001,000800600發(fā)債規(guī)模上漲土拍溢價明顯發(fā)債規(guī)模上漲土拍溢價明顯20.0%40020000房地產(chǎn)資金信托余額（萬億元）新增信托同比（%）分房企發(fā)債規(guī)模（億元）平均溢價率(%)分分wind性3007分10-15BP10%3%分%160%140%120%?12.00%Q311%宏觀杠桿率：18-19年上升6BP，今年以來上升居民杠桿率：18-19年上升4BP，今年以來上升?27024510.00%100%80%8.00%164

15160%6.00%40%20%4.00%0%-20%2.00%03845-40%-60%0.00%居民中長期新增貸款增速商品住宅銷售額增速人民幣貸款加權(quán)平均利率wind經(jīng)濟環(huán)境及政策對房地產(chǎn)而言——

國際經(jīng)濟環(huán)境202年行業(yè)站位全球經(jīng)濟預(yù)期逐漸好轉(zhuǎn)，疫苗進程影響經(jīng)濟修復(fù)速度國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟環(huán)境與金融、實體經(jīng)濟均衡發(fā)展，推進都市圈建設(shè)經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇勢頭加快，構(gòu)建雙循環(huán)發(fā)展格局行業(yè)政策貨幣金融政策轉(zhuǎn)向中性偏緊，關(guān)注地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險中性趨緊，宏觀杠桿率較快抬升下關(guān)注風(fēng)險防范需求側(cè)改革警惕“灰犀牛”風(fēng)險l繼續(xù)發(fā)揮經(jīng)濟發(fā)展“壓艙石”作用l調(diào)控政策延續(xù)穩(wěn)定性、定向調(diào)節(jié)l地產(chǎn)是金融政策重要敏感點之一202年?中央定調(diào)將從需求側(cè)改革、促進房地產(chǎn)市場平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展，解決大城市住房突出問題，或推行單列租賃用地計劃望2021?預(yù)計后市行業(yè)政策將維持“有保有壓”，都市圈建設(shè)仍有持續(xù)利好?“三道紅線”持續(xù)影響高杠桿房企，居民房貸環(huán)境趨收斂02PARTTWOZHANGZHOU1202樓1201719

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