2030年將可再生能源裝機(jī)翻倍策略

002TRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWER2DOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBY2030CRUCIALSTEPSTOWARDS1.5°C

2可再生能源和能源效率翻倍20301.5°C2TRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBYSincetheRioEarthSummitandtheadoptionoftheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)in1992,theConferenceofthePartiestotheConvention(COP)hasconvenedsignatoryPartieseachyeartodetermineambitionsandresponsibilities,andidentifyandassesstheprogressofclimatemeasures.The21stcollectiveactiontolimittheincreaseinglobalaveragetemperaturetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevels,pursueetfortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels,andstrengthentheglobalresponsetothethreatofclimatechange.COP28,andthefirstGlobalStocktakeoftheParisAgreement,canbetheturningpointonclimateactionoverthiscriticaldecadetoaccelerateatransitionthatputseconomiesonthepathtowardanewlow-carbon,high-growth,sustainableeconomicmodelinawaythatisbothtransformationalandjust.COP28hasthevisiontodeliveronthepillarsoftheParisAgreement,focusingonspecificactiononfourparadigmshifts:

TRIPLING可再生能源和翻倍能源效率 Y1992（UNFCCC）以來，該公約的締約方會議（COP）每年都會召集簽署方以確定雄心和責(zé)任，并識別和評估氣候措施的進(jìn)展。第21st屆COP會議（COP21）促成了《巴黎協(xié)定》，該協(xié)定動員了集體行動，2°C，努力將1.5°C，并加強(qiáng)全球應(yīng)對氣候變化威脅COP28過渡，并以變革性和公正的方式進(jìn)行。COP28fast-trackingthefast-trackingtheenergytransitionandslashingemissionsbeforetransformingclimatefinance,bydeliveringonoldpromisesandsettingtheframeworkforanewdealonfinance;puttingnature,people,livesandlivelihoodsattheheartofclimateaction;andmobilisingforthemostinclusiveCOP為史上最包容的COP??DarylHan/?DarylHan/CRUCIALSTEPSTOWARDSTheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)isanintergovernmentalorganisation,comprising168MemberStatesandtheEuropeanUnion,thatsupportscountriesintheirtransitiontoasustainableenergyfuture.IRENAservesasacentreofexcellence;arepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledge;andtheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operationonrenewableenergy.IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofaglobalenergytransitionthatdeliverssustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.\hTheGlobalRenewablesAlliance(GRA)representstheleadinginternationalindustryassociationsacrossrenewableenergyandservesasaunifiedrenewableenergyvoiceonaglobalscale.Thealliancewasestablishedin2022andcomprisesfoundingmembers,theGlobalWindEnergyCouncil,theGlobalSolarCouncil,theInternationalHydropowerAssociation,theInternationalGeothermalAssociation,theLongDurationEnergyStorageCouncilandtheGreenHydrogenOrganisation.TheGRA’smissionistoincreaseambitionandacceleratetheuptakeofrenewableenergyacrosstheinvestors,civilsocietyandotherkeystakeholdersoncollectiveactionswhichcanenablethebroadscale-upofrenewableenergy.Whileeachcountryandregionwilladoptanationallydeterminedapproachtoandessentialtechnologieslikelong-durationstorageandgreenhydrogen.Thiswillensurethatfutureglobalenergysystemsarenotonlyclean,butsecureandjust.\h/

國際可再生能源機(jī)構(gòu)（IRENA）168（包括生物質(zhì)能、地?zé)崮?、水能、海洋能、太陽能和風(fēng)能）濟(jì)增長與繁榮。\hg全球可再生能源聯(lián)盟（GRA）代表可再生能源領(lǐng)域的國際主要行業(yè)協(xié)會，在全球范圍內(nèi)發(fā)出統(tǒng)一的可GRA1.5投資者、民間社會和其他關(guān)鍵利益相關(guān)者溝通，采取集體行動，以實(shí)現(xiàn)可再生能源的大規(guī)模擴(kuò)展。雖然GRA\h/ TRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBY

TRITRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCY Y?Szilard?SzilardToth/?SzilardToth/TRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBY

TRITRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCY YCONTENTS

RENEWABLEPOWERANDENERGYEFFICIENCYIMPROVEMENTSTO2030

x3RENEWABLE x2ENERGY

2030RENEWABLEx2030RENEWABLExxRENEWABLExx?DianaParkhouse/?DianaParkhouse/

?AgnieszkaSwierczek/?AgnieszkaSwierczek/?AgnieszkaSwierczek/CRUCIALSTEPSTOWARDS

?Marcel?MarcelPoncu/ANDPOLICY INFRASTRUCTUREAND Power Energy End-useelectrificationand Demand-side POLICYAND Improvingenergy Marketincentivesandfiscal Powermarketdesignand Streamlining Reducingnegativeimpacts;socialandenvironmental SUPPLYCHAINS,SKILLS?Marcel?MarcelPoncu/Buildingresilientsupply Education,trainingand SCALINGUPPUBLICAND Enhancinginternational

FROMAMBITIONTOACTION.

INFRASTRUCTUREAND市場激勵和財政政策42監(jiān)管44.46減少負(fù)面影響；最大化社會和環(huán)境效益SUPPLYCHAINS,SKILLSSCALINGUPPUBLICAND

?MarcelPoncu/FROMAMBITION?MarcelPoncu/??MarcelPoncu/ TRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBY

2030 ?DianaParkhouse?DianaParkhouse/?DianaParkhouse/CRUCIALSTEPSTOWARDS

1.5°CDrSultanAlCOP28President-Triplingthedeploymentofrenewablepowergenerationanddoublinggasemissions.Theworldhasalreadymadegreatstridesbyexpandingglobalrenewableenergycapacityandbecomingmoreenergyefficient;butprogresssofarhasbeentooslow.tocut22gigatonnesofgreenhousegasesinthenext7yearsinordertokeep1.5°Cwithinreach.Thephase-downoffossilfuelsisinevitableandessential,butitmustbesocio-economicdevelopmentandensuringenergyatfordability,reliabilityandsustainability,wemustrapidlyaccelerateouretfortstorampuprenewableenergy.Nowisthetimetoturbochargesolutionsandmeettheurgencyofthemomentwithambitiousanddeterminedaction.AheadofCOP28,wearebuildingglobalmomentumandconsensusinsupportofourtargettotripleglobalrenewablepowergenerationanddoubleenergyefficiency.Thisreportoutlinesactionablesolutionsthatcanenabletheprogressweneedanddemonstratesthatthistargetisambitiousbutachievable.andtakecomprehensivedomesticandinternationalaction,asoutlinedinthisreport,tomakeourambitionsareality.

·COP28722COP28 TRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBYFrancescoLaDirector-General,InternationalRenewableEnergyOurmissionisasclearasitisurgent:tokeepthe1.5°Ctargetwithinreach,wemusttriplerenewablepowercapacityanddoubleenergyefficiencyanalyticalfoundationforthisreport,warnsthattheenergytransitionisdangerouslyotf-track,demandingimmediate,radicalcollectiveaction.Asignificantaccelerationofrenewableenergydeployment,coupledwithtangibleprogressinenergyefficiencyandend-useelectrification,isessentialtoputtheworldbackontracktoachievethegoalsoftheParisAgreement.Thiswillrequireconcertedactiontourgentlyaddressdeeplyentrenchedsystemicbarriersacrossinfrastructure,policyandinstitutionalcapacitiesstemmingfromsystemsandstructurescreatedforthefossil-fuelera.Wemustnowfocusonbuildingthenecessaryinfrastructureandinvestingatscaleingridstoaccommodateagrowingshareofrenewableenergy;establishpolicyandregulatoryarchitecturethatcanfacilitatetargetedpublicandprivatesectorinvestmentsintheenergytransition;andstrategicallyrealigninstitutionalcapacitiestohelpensureskillsandcapabilitiesmatchtheenergysystemofthefuture.Thisisespeciallyimportantfordevelopingcountries,wherewemustdeliveronourcommitmentstosustainabledevelopment,ensuringnooneisleftbehind.COP28markstheyearofthefirstGlobalStocktake,inwhichtheworldreflectsonitsprogressinimplementingtheParisAgreement.Itisvitalthatcollectiveactionbegalvanisedfollowingthiskeymilestoneinourjourneytowardaclimate-safeexistencetoensuretheforthcomingroundofNationallyDeterminedContributionsin2025representsatransformativeleapforward,realigninguswiththe1.5°Cgoal.Thisreportoutlinestheessentialactionsgovernmentsmustprioritisetoachievethisobjective.

TRITRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCY YFrancescoLaDirector-General,InternationalRenewableEnergy2030IRENA的《世界能源轉(zhuǎn)型展望》，為本報告提供了分析基礎(chǔ)，該報告警COP2820251.5°C CRUCIALSTEPSTOWARDSBruceChiefExecutiveOfficer,GlobalRenewablesThisisthe‘makeorbreak’decadetoavoidthemostcatastrophicimpactsofclimatechange.Aglobalenergytransitionthatacceleratesrenewableenergyandphasesoutfossilfuelsistheonlywaytobuildaclean,secureandjustfuture.Doubledown,tripleup:Triplingglobalrenewableenergycapacityanddoublingenergyefficiencyratesby2030arethemostimpactfulcommitmentswecanundertakenowtoachievea1.5°Cpathway.Thiswoulddelivercleanerelectricitysystems,accesstoatfordableenergyandgreenjobsformillionsofpeople,billionsofdollarsinpublicandprivatecapitaltofosterclimate-resilientgrowth,andreducelossanddamagefornatureandpeoplewroughtbyharmfulclimatechange.Toachievethesetargets,weneedtodramaticallyrampupwindpower,scalelong-durationenergystorageandgreenhydrogen,ensuringenergysystemsarenotjustclean,butsecureandresilient.Onaverage,1000GWofrenewablesneedstobeinstalledeachyearfortherestofthedecadetowillriseoverthecourseofthedecade,therenewablesindustrybelievesatleast1500GWofrenewablescapacitycouldbeinstalledin2030alone.GloballeadersmustcommittothesetargetsatCOP28.However,progresstowards2030goalscannotbetakenforgranted.Policymakersmustworkhand-in-handwithindustryandcivilsocietytourgentlyimplementtheenablingactionsinthisreport,centredon:infrastructureandsystemoperation;policyandregulation;andsupplychains,skillsandcapacities.Critically,theseareasmustbereinforcedbylow-costfinancingandinternationalcollaboration.Thisisaunique”onceinageneration“opportunity,butweneedurgentactiontoscalerenewableenergyineveryregionoftheworld.Onlythencanweprotecttheplanetandsecurealiveablefutureforall.

Bruce20301.5°C的發(fā)展路徑。這將帶來更清潔的電力系統(tǒng)、數(shù)百萬人的可負(fù)擔(dān)能源為實(shí)現(xiàn)這些目標(biāo)，我們需要大幅提升風(fēng)能、太陽能、水能和地?zé)崮堋＿@將奠定擴(kuò)大長時儲能和綠氫規(guī)模的基礎(chǔ)，確保能源系統(tǒng)不僅清潔，而且安全10002030110002030500COP282030 TRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBY

2030KEYTOTALGLOBALRENEWABLEPOWERGENERATIONCAPACITYWILLNEEDTRIPLEBY2030toreachmorethan11000GWunderIRENA’s1.5°CScenariopoweraccountingforabout90%ofrenewableenergycapacityadditions.ENERGYEFFICIENCYIMPROVEMENTSMUSTDOUBLEBY2030TOREMAINofefficienttechnologiesinend-usesectorsandextensiveelectrification.ThesevitalmilestonesmustbeachievedtokeeptheglobalenergytransitionontracktomeetParisAgreementgoals.changeisneededtoensurethetransitiontoanenergy-efficienteconomyandarenewables-basedpowersystemisjustandfair,andprovidesbenefitsforall.ENERGYEFFICIENCYPOLICYMEASURESshouldinclude:theadoptionoftargetswithspecifictimehorizons;strongregulatoryframeworksincludingbuildingcodesandenergyefficiencystandardsforappliances;fiscalandfinancialincentives;andpubliccampaignstobuildawarenessoftheroleofenergyefficiencymeasures,publictransportandgreenmobilityforcostsavingsandcollectivedecarbonisationgoals.

關(guān)鍵2030IRENA1.5°C90%。20301.5°CIRENA1.5°C情景下，這將由終端用能領(lǐng)域的節(jié)能技術(shù)和廣泛的電氣化共同推動。要實(shí) CRUCIALSTEPSTOWARDS

1.5°CRENEWABLEENERGYDEPLOYMENTREQUIRESENABLINGMEASURESTHATGOREGULATIONSORFISCALANDFINANCIALINCENTIVES.Theorganisationalstructuresofpowersectorsmustbereshapedtointegrateahighershareofrenewables.Procurementmechanismsmustbedesignedinawaythatstrengthensvaluechainsandtrade,andindustrialpoliciesmustbefitforbuildingresilientsupplychains.Education,training,re-skillingandup-skillingshouldbeprioritised;womenandunder-representedgroupsmustbeempowered;andcollaborationbetweenindustry,civilsociety,policymakersandotherkeystakeholdersshouldbeEXISTINGELECTRICITYINFRASTRUCTURESHOULDBEEXPANDEDANDMODERNISEDCREATEANEWENERGYSYSTEMFITFORRENEWABLES.Thereisanurgentneedtoboostcross-sectorinfrastructureplanning,increasecross-borderco-operationanddevelopregionalpowergrids.Actionisalsoneededtodrivegridmodernisationandexpansionandensuresupply-sideflexibilityanddemand-sidemanagement.RENEWABLEPOWERCAPACITYSHOULDBEINCREASEDMORERAPIDLYINCOUNTRIES,giventheirgrowingelectricitydemandandtheimportantroleofrenewablesinaddressingthesignificantenergyaccessdeficitinthesecountries.WEMUSTRAPIDLYMOBILISEPUBLICANDPRIVATEFINANCETOTRIPLERENEWABLECAPACITYANDDOUBLEENERGYEFFICIENCY.AnnualaverageinvestmentinrenewablepowergenerationmustreachUSD1300billionby2030,comparedto486billionin2022.Inthedevelopingworld,wemustminimiseinvestmentrisksandprovideaccesstolow-costfinancing.TheglobalfinancialarchitecturemustbereformedtosupporttheenergytransitionintheGlobalSouth.Climate-relatedfundingfrommultilateraldevelopmentbanksmustberampedup,andpubliccapitalshouldberedirectedfromthefossilfuelssectortorenewableenergy.THISWILLREQUIRESTRONGINTERNATIONALCOLLABORATION.Immediateettortsrequiredtofacilitateandcontributetomultilateralinitiativesthatpromoteknowledgesharingandcapacitybuildingtodeliverajusttransitionwhilstalsosafeguardingnatureandbiodiversity.Collaborationisurgentlyrequiredtofostercollectiveactionongovernance,climatefinanceandinnovation.North-SouthandSouth-Southdialoguesshouldbecultivated;groupsliketheG7andG20mustmobilisesupportandinvestment;andjusttransitionfundsshouldbeestablishedandoperationalisedinemergingeconomies.

20301.320224860G7G20 TRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBY

2030?Curioso.Photography?Curioso.Photography/?Curioso.Photography/CRUCIALSTEPSTOWARDS

1.5°C TheUnitedNationsIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),initslatestAssessmentReport(AR6),sentaclearmessagetotheworldthatthisdecadeiscriticaltooursuccessinlimitingglobalsurfacetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevelsbytheendofthiscentury(IPCC,2023).Thereisanurgentneedforrapidandimmediateactiontoreduceglobalnetanthropogeniccarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsbyalmost50%from2019levelsby2030,withasignificantproportionofthisreductionoccurringwithinthefieldofenergy.However,theenergytransitionremainsotf-trackandglobalgreenhousegasemissionshavereachedrecordlevels.IRENA’sflagshipreport,WorldEnergyandplansmadebynationalgovernments–includingNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs),long-termlowgreenhousegasemissiondevelopmentstrategies(LT-LEDS)andothercommitments–arefullyimplemented,thisThisisfarbelowtheemissionreductionsrequiredtoplacetheworldona1.5°Cincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevelsbytheendofthiscenturywithoutCOP28markstheyearofthefirstGlobalStocktake(GST),throughwhichpolicymakers,industry,financialinstitutions,civilsocietyandotherstakeholderswillreflectontheprogressachievedinimplementingclimatepledgessincethe2023concludesthatasignificantaccelerationinthedeploymentofrenewableenergy,energystorageandrenewablefuels,coupledwithtangibleprogressinenergyefficiencyandelectrificationofend-usesectors,arerequiredtoputtheworldbackontrackinthisdecadetomeetglobalclimategoals(IRENA, Areductionintheuseoffossilfuelsforpowergeneration-particularlyincarbon-intensivegenerationfleetswithoutabatementmeasures-isvitaltothesuccessoftheenergytransition,albeitbeyondthescopeofthisreport.By2030,fossil-firedelectricitygenerationwouldfallbyaround47%fromthe2022level,whilecoal-and-oil-basedgenerationwouldfalltozerobymid-century,undertheIRENA1.5°CScenario(IRENA,2023a).

聯(lián)合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）在其最新的評估報告（AR6）中1.5（IPCC，2023）。迫切需要迅速采2030（CO2）201950%，其中大部分減排將發(fā)生在能源領(lǐng)域。然而，能源轉(zhuǎn)型仍在偏離軌道，全球溫室氣體排放量已達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平。國際可再生能源署（IRENA）2023：1.5℃——（NDC）、長期低碳排放發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略（LT?LEDS）——2030CO220226%1.5需的減排量。信息明確：若在本世紀(jì)末將全球地表溫度增幅限制在工業(yè)化前水1.5℃，就必須采取迅速、持續(xù)和協(xié)同的行動。28（GST）的年份，政策制定者、行20152023》得出結(jié)論，需要顯著加快可再生能源、儲能和可再生燃料的部署，同時新拉回軌道，實(shí)現(xiàn)全球氣候目標(biāo)（IRENA，2023a）。12030IRENA1.5°C（IRENA，2023a），202247%， TRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBYTheglobalenergytransitionrequiresasignificantreductionincarbonemissionsacrosstheentireenergyindustry,aswellasinend-usesectors.Leveraginglow-costsolarPV,onshoreandotfshorewind,andotherrenewableelectricitygenerationsources,thepowersectormustleadthewayassolutionsinothersectorsscaleup.Acceleratingtheprogressofthetransitionworldwiderequiresaholisticapproach,backedbysystemicinnovationtotransformexistingstructuresandsystemsbuiltforthefossilfuelera.Whilstthephasedownoffossilfuelsisbothessentialandinevitable,itmustalsoberesponsible.Thetransitionneedstobedeliveredinawaythatensuresenergysecurity,accessibilityandatfordability,whilealsosustainingsocio-economicdevelopmentandadoptingnature-positiveapproaches.Thespeedatwhichthetransitionisachievedwillbedeterminedbyhowquicklyzero-carbonalternativescanbeintroducedandscaledup.Greaterambitionandstrongercollectiveactionareimmediatelyrequiredtoaccelerateprogress,particularlyinrenewableenergyandenergyefficiency.Againstthisbackdrop,policymakers,energyauthorities,industryandcivilsocietyhaveanopportunitytoalignatCOP28toagreeglobaltargetstotriplerenewablepowergenerationcapacityanddoubletheenergyefficiencyimprovementrateby2030.Thesegoalsrepresentsomeofthemostimportantleversforchangetoadvancetheenergytransitionthisdecade.Thisreportconsolidateshigh-levelanalysisofthesetargets,detailingexistingshortfallsandidentifyingkeyenablerstoresolvethem.Itrepresentsglobalperspectiveswithintherenewableenergyandclimatechangespace,withtheCOP28Presidency,theInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)andtheGlobalRenewablesAlliance(GRA)unitingtoprovideconcreterecommendationsonthemeanstomeettheserenewablepowerandenergyefficiencytargets.bescaleduprapidlyinmostcountriesaroundtheworld;indeed,utility-scalesolarPVandonshorewindarealreadythemostcost-competitivesourcesofnewelectricitysupplyinmostcountriestoday(IRENA,2023b).Acceleratingprogressinrenewableenergydeploymentandenergyefficiencyimprovementmeasuresthisdecadewouldcontributetoacleanerenergysystem,improveenergysecurityandreduceexposure–bothinindustryandforconsumers–tothedamagingrisksofhighlyvolatilefossilfuelprices.Itwouldalsoimproveairqualityandreducehealthcosts;deliveruniversalaccesstocleanatfordableenergy;andprovidegreatercollectivesecurityandwell-being.Withtherightpoliciesinplace,theglobalenergytransitionwillalsobringextensivesocio-economicbenefits,includingintheformofjobcreationandincomegeneration.

TRITRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBYCOP282030可再生能源和氣候變化領(lǐng)域的全球觀點(diǎn)，COP28主席、國際可再生能源機(jī)構(gòu)（IRENA）和全球可再生能源聯(lián)盟（GRA）聯(lián)合起來，就實(shí)現(xiàn)這些可再生能源發(fā)電和能源效率目標(biāo)的方法提供具體建議。電力供應(yīng)來源（IRENA，2023b）。在本十年加速可再生能源部署和能源效率提升措施將有助于構(gòu)建入。?zorazhuang/?zorazhuang/?zorazhuang/CRUCIALSTEPSTOWARDS

2030

2030

RENEWABLERENEWABLEx3 x2RENEWABLERENEWABLEThekeyenablingframeworks,policiesandrecommendationsdetailedinthisreportprovideconcreteenergyefficiencyimprovementratefromthecurrentlevelby2030(IRENA,2023a).andexpandingphysicalenergyinfrastructure;improvingpowersystemoperations;establishingtherightpoliciesandregulatoryframeworks;buildingresilientsupplychains;anddevelopingskillsandinstitutionalcapacities.Theseactionsmustbeunderpinnedbyasignificantincreaseinpublicandprivatefinancing,particularlytosupportthedevelopingworld.Toensuretheenergytransitionisbothjustandinclusive,greaterinternationalcollaborationisalsoneeded.Worldwide,around675millionpeoplestilllackaccesstoelectricityand2.3billionlackaccesstocleancookingmethods(IEAetal.,2023).Providingrenewableenergytothosepopulationswouldcontributesignificantlytosustainableandmodernenergyforall.

2030IRENA1.5203011,000（IRENA2023a）。全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人必須在COP28會議上展示集體意志，通過承諾這些目標(biāo)來為這一十年設(shè)定新的行動步伐；為確保能源轉(zhuǎn)型既公平又包容，也需要更大的國際合作。worldwide TRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBYRENEWABLEPOWERRENEWABLERENEWABLEPOWERENERGYEFFICIENCYENERGYENERGYEFFICIENCYCRUCIALSTEPSTOWARDS

1.5°CTRIPLINGUP,DOUBLINGDOWNRENEWABLEPOWERANDENERGYEFFICIENCYIMPROVEMENTSTO2030

RENEWABLEPOWERRENEWABLEPOWERRENEWABLEPOWERrisecanbelimitedto1.5°C.AccordingtoIRENA’sWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook2023,globalenergy-relatedCO2emissionswouldneedtodeclinesignificantlyto23gigatonnesofCO2(GtCO2)in2030,fromtherecordhighof36.8GtCO2in2022(IRENA,2023a).isconsistentwithParisAgreementgoals.Itconcludesthatenergyefficiencyandelectrificationpoweredbyrenewables,cleanhydrogenanddirectuseofrenewablesaredrivingthetransition;butthesheerscaleandextentofthistransitionrequiresarapidandsystemictransformationoftheenergysystem.Despitetheprogressachievedtodate,thecurrentdeploymentofenergytransitiontechnologiesisinsufficientinspeedandscaletoachievetheParisAgreementgoals.Theenergytransitionrequiresanurgentandsignificantaccelerationacrossenergysupply,end-usesectorsandenablingtechnologies-particularlythedeploymentofrenewablepowergenerationsystemsinmorecountriesandregions.

1.5°CIRENA20232030CO223（GtCO2），202236.8GtCO2（IRENA,2023a）IRENA1.5°C情景確定了實(shí)現(xiàn)與《巴黎協(xié)定》目標(biāo)一致的能源未來的技術(shù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)可行路徑。該情景 TRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBY

TRITRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCY Y?Warmlight/?Warmlight/By2030,globaltotalinstalledrenewablepowergenerationcapacitywouldneedtoexpandmorethanthree-fold,from3382GWin2022to11174GW,accordingtoIRENA’s1.5°CScenario.Specifically,wouldsurpass3500GW(3040GWonshoreand500GWotfshore),upfrom899GWin2022,overthesameperiod(IRENA,2023a,2023c).Theshareofvariablerenewableenergy(VRE)–suchassolarPVandwindpower–inelectricitygenerationwouldrisefrom10%ofthetotalelectricitygeneratedin2021to46%by2030,requiringadditionalflexibilityintheoperationoftheenergysystem.AftersolarPVandwindpower,thethird-largestincreaseingenerationcapacitywouldbeinhydropower;by2030,global?Warmlight/?Warmlight/

20302022338211174IRENA1.5°C5400202210553500（3004500），2022899（IRENA，2023a，2023c）。可變可再生能源（VRE）202110203046%，需要在能源系統(tǒng)2030（不包括抽水蓄能）202217%，根據(jù)IRENA1.5°C1465??Sanwenyu1/?Sanwenyu1/ CRUCIALSTEPSTOWARDSFIGURE1Keyperformanceindicatorsforachievingthe1.5°CScenariointheDecadeforRECENTRECENT2030Totalinstalledcapacity814renewablecapacityTotalgeneration2840RenewableenergyshareingenerationVREshareingenerationRenewableenergyshareininstalledcapacity VRE=variablerenewableBasedon:(IRENA,2023a,

RECENTTotalinstalledRECENTTotalinstalledcapacity814renewablecapacityTotalgeneration2840shareingenerationVREshareingenerationRenewableenergyshareininstalledcapacity VRE=variablerenewable

TRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBYThissuggestsaveragerenewableenergycapacityadditionsofapproximately1000GWeachyearinthecurrentdecade–morethanthreetimestheinstalledrenewablecapacityaddedin2022(292GW,including189GWofsolarand73GWofwindpower)(IRENA,2023c).Withaverageannualadditionsof551GWofsolarPVand329GWofwindpowerto2030,solarPVandwindpowerwoulddominateannualpowergenerationcapacityadditionsthisdecade.Energystoragecapacitywouldexpandintandem,withcumulativeglobalbatterystorageincreasingbyafactorof21,from17GWin2020to359GWin2030(IRENA,2023a).Renewablepoweradditionsthisdecademaynotbelinear,however,withmanyfactorsimpactingtherateofgrowth.Giventhatannualinstallationlevelsin2022werelessthanone-thirdofthe1000GWaverageannualinstallationraterequiredto2030underIRENA’s1.5°CScenario,growthofrenewablepowertechnologiesovertheremainingperiodofthisdecadewillneedtoaccelerateimmediately(IRENA,2023a).Someprojectionsofsolargrowthforeseethat1000GWofannualsolarPVinstallationsannualrenewableadditionsneedtorampupasfastaspossible,andasearlyaspossible,inthisCountriesandregionswillfollowditferenttrajectoriesinacceleratingthedeploymentofrenewablepowercapacity.Thosewithlowerbarrierstoinvestment,higherrenewableenergyresourcepotentialandmorematurepowermarkets–amongotherkeyenablingfactors–shouldaimforgreaterincreasesinrenewablecapacityandeconomydecarbonisation.Thiswillallowthemtoassistothersbysharinglessonslearnt,technologicalandtechnicalknow-how,andexperiencesinestablishingtherightconditionsforthescalingupofrenewables.UndertheIRENA1.5°CScenario,theglobalsolarPVmarketwouldbedominatedbyG20countries;butandseveralEuropeancountrieshavehighonshorewindpotential,whilethemajorityofexpansionsinotfshorewindwouldbeinfourkeymarkets(China,EU-27,theUnitedStatesandIndia),accountingformorethan60%ofotfshorewinddeploymentby2030.Forhydropower,G20countriestogetherwouldaccountfor79%(over1150GW)ofglobalhydropowercapacityby2030,withalmost305GWoftotalcapacityspreadacrosstherestoftheworld.

TRITRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCY Y10002022源裝機(jī)容量（29218973）的三倍多（IRENA，2023c）2030551329212020172030年的359吉瓦（IRENA，2023a）2022IRENA1.5°C20301000IRENA，2023a）。一些關(guān)于太陽能增長的預(yù)測認(rèn)為，10002028（Haegelt,2023）。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)可再生能源裝機(jī)容量翻三倍的目標(biāo)，本十年內(nèi)可再生能源新增裝機(jī)容量需要盡可能快地、盡可能早地提升。IRENA1.5°CG202030900G204530場（27），203060以上。對于水力發(fā)電，到2030G2079（1150），305?Lanski/?Lanski/?Lanski/CRUCIALSTEPSTOWARDS

Figure

21.5°C情景下全球安裝的可再生能源發(fā)電能力，20222030

2022

11Wind31055

2030

1135Solar

11Wind3

1135SolarSolar Solar

Notes:CSP=concentratedsolarpower;GW=gigawatt;PV=photovoltaic;VRE=variablerenewableenergy.Bioenergyincludesbiogas,biomasswasteandbiomasssolid.Basedon:(IRENA,

注釋：CSP=聚光太陽能；GW=吉瓦；PV=光伏；VRE=Basedon:(IRENA,Itisimportantthatrenewablepowergenerationcapacity,includingbothgrid-connectedandotf-gridsystems,expandsmorerapidlyinthedevelopingworld,givenitsgrowingelectricitydemand;renewablescan–andshould–playanimportantroleinaddressingthesignificantenergyaccessdeficitindevelopingcountries,throughbothgridandotf-gridapplications.Currently,despitevastpotential,manydevelopingcountriesarelaggingbehindintermsoftheirdeploymentofrenewablepowersystemsandrelatedinvestments;forinstance,ofthecumulativeinvestmentofUSD2841billioninrenewableenergyin2000–2020worldwide,AfricaonlyreceivedUSD60billion,or2%(IRENAandAfDB,2022).Acceleratingrenewablepowerdeploymentisnotonlybeneficialfromaclimateperspective;theeconomiccaseforthisaccelerationisnowcompelling,giventhedramaticimprovementsinthecompetitivenessofrenewableenergysourcessuchassolarandwindpower.

2000202028410600（IRENA和非洲開發(fā)銀行，2022年） TRIPLINGRENEWABLEPOWERANDDOUBLINGENERGYEFFICIENCYBYIn2010,theglobalweightedaveragelevelisedcostofelectricity(LCOE)ofonshorewindwasUSD0.107/kilowatthour(kWh)–95%higherthanthelowestfossilfuelcostofUSD0.056/kWh.Yet,by2022,theglobalweightedaverageLCOEofnewonshorewindprojectswasUSD0.033/kWh–52%lowerthanthecheapestfossilfuel-firedoption,atUSD0.069/kWh(Figure3).ThisimprovementwassurpassedbythatofsolarPV,however.In2010,solarPVhadaglobalweightedaverageLCOEofUSD0.445/kWh–710%moreexpensivethanthecheapestfossilfuel-firedoption;butby2022,aspectaculardeclineincosts–toUSD0.049/kWh–madesolarPV’sglobalweightedaverageLCOE29%lowerthanthecheapestfossilfuel-firedoption(IRENA,2023b).

TRITRIPLINGRENEWA