2025年全球貿(mào)易調(diào)查報(bào)告：貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)、貿(mào)易協(xié)議及其對企業(yè)的影響

AllianzTradeGlobalSurvey2025

Tradewar,tradedeals

andtheirimpactsoncompanies

20May2025

AllianzResearch

AllianzResearch

2

Content

5

ExecutiveSummary

8

Unpredictabletradepoliciesdentexporters’confidence

10

Morethanhalfofexportersexpectlongerpaymenttermsin2025

15

Copingmechanisms:frontloading,rerouting,passingonhighercostsanddiversifying

17

US-Chinaderiskingislikelytocontinue,despitethe90-daytradedeal

21

Thetradewariscreatingopportunistic

friendshoring:theEurope-Asiarapprochement

25

CantheLatinAmericanexceptionhold?

27

Appendix

3

20May2025

Executive

Summary

AnaBoata

HeadofEconomicResearch

ana.boata

@

JasminGr?schl

SeniorEconomistforEurope

jasmin.

grosch@

Fran?oiseHuang

SeniorEconomistforAsiaPacific

francoise.huang@

AnoKuhanathan

HeadofCorporateResearch

ano.kuhanathan@

MaximeLemerle

LeadAdvisor,InsolvencyResearch

maxime.lemerle

@

LluisDalmau

EconomistforAfrica&MiddleEast

lluis.dalmau

@

?TheunpredictabilityofUStradepolicyhasdentedexporters’confidence:42%ofexportingcompaniesnowanticipateturnovertodeclinebetween-2%and-10%overthenext12months–comparedtofewerthan5%before“LiberationDay”.Conductedacrossapproximately4,500companiesinChina,France,

Germany,Italy,Poland,Singapore,Spain,theUKandtheUSintwowavesoverMarchandApril2025,theAllianzTradeGlobalSurveyrevealsthatcloseto60%offirmsexpectanegativeimpactfromthefull-fledgedtradewarinitiatedbytheTrumpadministrationon2April,alsocalled“LiberationDay”.Lessthanhalfof

companiesexpectpositiveexportgrowth,comparedto80%before“LiberationDay”.Productioncouldalsobehit,with27%offirmssayingthattheycouldstopproductiontemporarilyasFXvolatilityexacerbatesthecostofhighertariffs,and32%intendtostopimportsoroffshoreproductiontoavoiddelaysorincreasedcosts.Intermsofinvestmentoutlook,companiesareincreasinglyfocusingon

operationalefficiencyandcost-cutting,with45%ofGermanfirmsprioritizing

thesemeasurespost“LiberationDay”.Conversely,77%ofChinesefirmsare

lookingtodiversifyintonewbusinesslinesandincreasingcapitalexpendituresinstrategicareas.Evenwiththeadventofbilateraltradedealsinrecentweeks,someofthereliefcouldprovetemporaryanditisdefinitelythevolatilityand

scaleofchangesthatwillpushcompaniestodiversifyfurther,astheyalreadyhavesincePresidentTrump’sfirsttermin2017.

?Morethanhalfofexportersanticipatelongerpaymentterms,withdelaystoexceedsevendaysinhalfofthecases.Only11%ofexportcompanies

continuetobepaidwithin30days,butthisfigureisnotablyloweramongtopexportersliketheUS,ChinaandGermany.Approximately70%ofcompaniesreceivepaymentsbetween30and70days,withtheUK(75%),France(73%),Italy(73%)andtheUS(73%)slightlymorenumerousthanpeers.Sectors

suchasretail,computersandtelecom,constructionandautomotivereport

paymenttermsbelow50daysonaverage,whiletransportequipment,energy,electricity,metals,paperandagrifoodexperiencelongerterms(above50

daysonaverage).Largerfirmstendtoexperiencelongerpaymentdelays,with26%ofsurveyedcompanieshavingaturnoveraboveEUR5bnfacingpaymenttermsexceeding70days,comparedto18%fortheoverallsampleaverage.Thetradewarhashitexpectationsinpaymentterms:After“LiberationDay”,24%

ofexportersanticipatelongerpaymenttermstoexceedsevendays,asurgeof+13pps,withexportersinItalyandPolandparticularlyconcerned(+23ppsand+26pps,respectively).Overall,thisdeteriorationaffectsoverhalfofexporters,especiallysmallerfirmsandkeysectorslikewholesale,retail,agricultureandmanufacturing.Inthiscontext,paymenttermsarelikelytobeevenlessofanoptionwhenitcomestofinancingactivities:alreadybefore“LiberationDay”,only14%offirmschosepaymenttermsastheirtopsourceoffinance,withcashflows(21%)andbankloans(18%)beingpreferred.Additionally,nearlyhalfofexporters(48%)anticipateincreasednon-paymentrisk,especiallyintheUS

(+21pps),Italy(+13pps),andtheUK(+24pps),withexpectationsrisingnotablypost“LiberationDay”.

4

?EventhoughthenewtradedealbringstheUSaverageimporttariffrate

onChinato39%,downfromaneye-watering103%,thisisstillmuchhigher

thanthe13%appliedbeforethesecondTrumpadministration.Asaresult,USfirmswilllikelycontinuetofrontloadimportsasastrategicresponse,alongsidereroutingshipments.Beforetariffskickedin,79%ofAmericancompaniesracedtofrontloadshipmentsfromChina,withaproactive25%havingstartedbeforetheNovember2024election,especiallyinsectorssuchasagriculture,machineryandmetals,whilethoseinagrifoodandcomputersdraggedtheirfeet.After

“LiberationDay”,mostfirmssaidtheywouldseekalternativeshippingroutes

tokeepcustomscostsundercontrol,notably62%intheUS.Reroutingisbeingfacilitatedbylowershippingcosts,whichhavedroppedbyalmost-50%since

thebeginningoftheyear.DespitetheUS-Chinadeal,webelievereroutingwillcontinueasamitigationstrategyasthetariffrateonChinaremainssignificantlyhigherthanthatappliedonemergingtradehubslikeSoutheastAsia,theUAE,SaudiArabiaandLatinAmericancountries.

?Firmsarepushingcostsonothers:fromraisingpricesontheircustomersto

leavingcustomsdutiestotheirsuppliers.Despiterecentpositivedevelopments,pricehikesarelikelytoremainthego-tostrategygloballytocountertariff

impacts,especiallyintheUSwhere54%offirmssaidtheywoulddosoafter

“LiberationDay”(comparedwith46%before).Sourcingfromnewmarketsis

thesecondmostpreferredoptionamongwaystomitigatetheimpactoftariffs,climbingfrom26%to31%,especiallyinPolandandSpain.Fewcompaniesintendtoabsorbincreasedcosts(22%),anoptionthatwaslesschosenafter“LiberationDay”intheUS,FranceandItaly.ForChineseexporters,the90-daypause

providessomebreathingroombeforehikingprices,whichcouldenableother

strategiessuchasabsorbingthehighercostsanddiversifyingsupplysources.

Firmsingeneralarealsotryingtopushthecostandresponsibilityofcustoms

dutiesontotheirsuppliers:Oursurveyshowsbuyers’Incotermspreferences

movingtowards“DeliveredDutyPaid”globally,therebyleavingtothesellertheresponsibilitytomanagelogisticsandcosts(includingcustoms)allthewayto

buyer’slocations.AninterestingexceptionisintheUS,where“Cost,Insurance

&Freight”remainsking.CompaniesalsowanttosharethecostofFXvolatility,with59%choosingtheintroductionofpricingclausesincontractstoshareFXriskwithclientsandsuppliersastheirpreferredoption.

?Diversificationtomitigatetheimpactofthetradewar:aroundone-thirdof

companieshavealreadyfoundnewmarketsforexportsandsupply,and

almosttwo-thirdsareplanningtodoso.Onthesupplyside,forcompanies

stronglyintegratedintoglobalsupplychains,geopoliticalrisksandthetradewararetop-of-mindandareprovokingreconfigurations:Overthewholesample,54%ofrespondentsconsidergeopoliticalandpoliticalrisksandsocialunrestamongthetopthreethreatstotheirsupplychains.Suchrisksaswellastariffsandtraderestrictionsarepushingcompaniestorethinktheirsupplychains.Evenbefore

“LiberationDay”,oursurveyshowsthat34%ofrespondentshadalreadyfoundnewlocationsfortheiroffshoreproductionsitesand/orsuppliers,and59%wereplanningtodoso.ThisisevenmoreevidentforUSfirmsthathavelongersupplychainsandalargershareofproductionabroad,withnearly60%ofthemhavingalreadyfoundrelocationdestinations.

20May2025

5

?US-Chinaderiskingislikelytocontinuedespitethe90-daytradedeal.Whilethe90-daytrucebetweentheUSandChinaofferscompaniestemporary

relief,itisunlikelytoaltertheirstrategicplans,whichhavebeeninplacesince

thefirstTrumpmandatein2017.Following“LiberationDay”,Chinesefirms

withsupplychainsintheAmericaswereevenlesswillingtocommitfurtherin

theseregions,favoringmorerelocationtoAsia-PacificandWesternEurope

instead.ForChinesefirmswithsupplychainsinNorthAmerica,Asia-Pacific

isthepreferredrelocationdestination(39%vs.26%before“LiberationDay”).

StayinginNorthAmericaseemstobelessofanoptionforChinesecompanies,allofwhichsaytheywouldrelocate.Before“LiberationDay,”21%saidthattheywouldnotrelocate.Similarly,USfirmswithsupplychainsinChinahavealso

adjustedtheirrelocationpreferences:aroundonequarterofthemnowfavor

respectivelyWesternEurope(upfrom11%before“LiberationDay”)andLatin

America(upfrom9%),whiletheAsia-Pacificregiongathersfeweranswers

thanitusedto(34%vs.61%).Afterthe“LiberationDay”announcements,US

companiesaremorewillingtorelocatefromChinatofriendliercountries,despitethehighercostsoflaborand/orenergy(e.g.inWesternEurope).ThetradewarhasdefinitelydecreasedexportopportunitiesbetweentheUSandChina:fromalreadyrelativelylowlevels,USbusinesses’intentiontoexporttoChinaandEastAsiadroppedby11pps(21%to10%)betweenbothsurveys,whileChinesefirms’interestinexportingtoNorthAmericacollapsedby12pps(15%to3%).Despitetherecentpositivedevelopments,thetradewarpersistsandvolatilityintrade

policiesmeansthatdecouplingislikelytograduallycontinue.

?Thetradewariscreatingopportunisticfriendshoring:theEurope-Asia

rapprochement.AmidsttheUS-Chinatensions,Europeisemergingasan

attractivealternative.Following“LiberationDay”,whenaskedaboutregions

thatpresentthemostexportopportunities,aroundaquarterofChinesefirms

withsupplychainsinNorthAmericapickedEurope(upfromaround15%before“LiberationDay”).Europeanfirmsarealsoincreasinglyinterestedinexporting

toChinaandAsia:Betweenbothsurveys,exportintentionsincreasedby6pps

(30%to36%),andtheinteresttowardstheSouthandSoutheastAsianmarket

doubled(7%to14%)astradelinksbetweentheregionareintensifyingwithmorefree-tradeagreements.Asimilarincreaseinpreferencecanbeobservedwhen

itcomestosupply-chainexposures.Following“LiberationDay”,fewerGerman

firmswithoffshoreproductionsitesorsuppliersinChinawereconsidering

relocatingelsewhere(50%vs.67%before“LiberationDay”),andAsia-Pacific

hasbecomethepreferredrelocationdestination(43%vs.28%before“LiberationDay”)forGermanfirmswithcurrentsupply-chainexposureinNorthAmerica.Incomparison,theshareofGermanfirmschoosingtostayinNorthAmericahasnotchangedbeforeandafter“LiberationDay”(roughly30%).

?CantheLatinAmericanexceptionhold?Theregionisemergingasawinner,

withfirmscontinuingtoseekaccesstotheUSatlowercost.Chinesefirms’interesttowardsLatinAmericahasincreasedby+10pps(5%to15%)afterthe“LiberationDay”announcements,withtheregionofferingaccesstotheNorthAmerican

marketwithlowertariffs.Theyseemtobecommittingfurthertotheregion,with35%ofChinesefirmswithsupply-chainexposureinLatinAmericaindicatingtostaythereafter“LiberationDay”,comparedwith24%before.Europeanfirms’

interestinLatinAmericahasalsoincreased,withtheperceptionofexportopportunitiesshiftingupby+6pps(4%to10%).

AllianzResearch

6

Unpredictabletradepolicies

dentexporters’confidence

TheUSglobalimporttariffratehasbeenincreasedto

12.3%,upfrom2.5%beforethestartofTrump’ssecondterm,thehighestlevelsincetheearly1900s.However,asexpected,adealbetweentheUSandChinawasreachedinmid-MaytobringtheUSimporttariffrateonChinato

30%onaverageafteraccountingforallsectorexclusions,downfromaneye-watering103%.UltimatelytheUS

importtariffrateonChinacontinuestostand+26pps

higherthanbeforethesecondTrumpadministrationcameintopower(ataround39%).Thistogetherwithotherdeals(e.g.SoutheastAsia,EU,CanadaandMexico)willbring

theUSglobalimporttariffratedownto10.2%inQ42025.Followingthelatestannouncements,wehaveupgradedourUSGDPgrowthforecastfrom+0.8%to+1.3%-1.5%

for2025.Overall,globalexportlossescouldreachup

toUSD305bnin2025andUSD291bnin2026.Asthe

predominantsuppliertotheUS,ChinafacesexportlossesofuptoUSD108bn(0.5%ofGDP),mainlyinmachinery&equipment(USD20bn),householdappliances(USD18bn)andcomputers&telecom(USD9.5bn),withadditionalrisksintextiles,electronicsandchemicals.TheEUisexpected

toloseUSD33bninexports,withGermanythemost

exposed(USD9bn),particularlyinmachinery&equipment(USD1.9bn)andautomotivemanufacturing(USD1.6bn),

whileVietnam,SouthKorea,JapanandTaiwanwillalsobesignificantlyaffectedacrosskeysectors.Evenwiththeadventofbilateraltradedealsinrecentweeks,someofthereliefcouldprovetemporary.

ThefourtheditionoftheAllianzTradeGlobalSurvey

confirmsthat“LiberationDay”hasescalatedfirms’

exportrecessionexpectations.42%ofcompaniesnow

expectaturnoverdeclineofbetween-2%and-10%over

thenext12months,comparedtofewerthan5%priorto

theonsetofthetradeconflict.Wesurveyedapproximately4,500companiesinChina,France,Germany,Italy,Poland,Spain,theUK,theUSandSingaporeintwophases–6-21Marchand21April-5May–tocapturetheimpactoftheescalationoftradetensionson“LiberationDay”(2April).Asexpected,thetradewarhassignificantlydeterioratedbusinesssentimentamongexporters.Closeto60%of

firmssurveyedexpectanegativeimpactontheiractivity.

Figure1:Expectationsforexportturnovergrowthintheyearahead,in2025(beforeandaftertheUS“LiberationDay”)and2024,%oftotalcompanies

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Total

0

Expectinganincrease,2025beforeUS""LiberationDay""

Expectinganincrease,2024

Expectinganincrease,2025postUS"LiberationDay"

China

Singapore

France

Germany

Italy

Poland

Spain

UK

US

Source:AllianzTradeGlobalSurveys2024and2025

20May2025

7

Unsurprisingly,firmsinthewholesaleandtradesector

arethemostpessimistic(67%),andcompanieswithmorethanhalfoftheirturnovergeneratedthroughexportsarealsothemostnumeroustohavemarkedlydowngraded

theirrevenueexpectations(51%).And42%ofcompaniesanticipateaturnoverdeclineofbetween-2%and-10%

overthenext12months,comparedtofewerthan5%

priortotheonsetofthetradeconflict.Inthefirstround

ofoursurvey,80%ofexportersexpectedanincreasein

exportsfortheyear,onlymarginallylowerthanthe82%

reportedinthe2024survey.Butpost“LiberationDay,”thisfiguredroppedto40%.Chinesefirmspostedthesharpestdownturninsentiment,with72%expectingadeclinein

exportturnoverin2025,followedbyexportersinPoland(51%)andSingapore(48%).Firmswithahighreliance

onoffshoreproductionorsuppliersinAsia–andtoa

lesserextent,SouthAmerica–alsoreportedheightenedpessimism,withcloseto50%forecastingadownturn.After“LiberationDay”,upto27%offirmsalsosaidtheycould

potentiallystopproductiontemporarilyasFXvolatilityexacerbatesthecostofhighertariffs,and32%ofthemintendedtostopimportsoroffshoreproductiontoavoiddelaysorincreasedcosts.

Intermsofinvestmentoutlook,Chinesefirmsare

primarilylookingtodiversificationwhileGermanfirmsmainlyseemtofocusonoperationalefficiencyinan

environmentoflowmargins.Toadapttotheongoingtradewar,companiesareincreasinglycuttingcoststo

focusonoperationalefficiencyorholdingoffonmajor

investments(seeFigure2).Germanfirmsinparticular

saytheyarelookingtocutcosts(45%against34%before“LiberationDay”),followedbyFrench(38%against33%)andUSfirms(33%against31%).Ontheotherhand,moreChinesefirmsseemedtobewillingtoexpandintonew

businesslinesfordiversificationandtoincreasecapitalexpendituresinstrategicareas(77%against58%before“LiberationDay”),followedbytheUK(60%against49%)andSpain(50%against43%).Surprisingly,only47%

ofUSfirmssaidtheywouldbeincreasinginvestments,

andthesharedroppedby6ppspost“LiberationDay”.

Amongfirmsthatarelikelytocutinvestments,82%saidtheyexpectamoderatedeclineofupto-25%.Chinesefirmsaccountformostoftheriseinpessimism(+19ppsto85%),followedbySingapore(+17ppsto93%)andSpain(+23ppsto88%).Italy(23%),Poland(20%),theUK(19%)andUS(18%)hadthehighestshareoffirmsplanningtocutinvestments,andbymorethantheoverallsample

average,seeFigure3.

Figure2:Expectationsregardinginvestmentin2025(beforeandaftertheUS“LiberationDay”),%oftotalcompanies

100

80

60

40

20

0

Holdingoffonmajorinvestmentsfornow

Expandingintonewbusinesslinesfordiversificationandincreasingcapitalexpendituresinstrategicareas

Cuttingcostsandfocusingonoperationalefficiency

Total

China

Singapore

France

Germany

Italy

Poland

Spain

UK

US

Source:AllianzTradeGlobalSurvey2025

AllianzResearch

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Figure3:Expectationsregardinginvestmentin2025(beforeandaftertheUS“LiberationDay”),%oftotalcompanies

100

80

60

40

20

0

Post"LiberationDay"

Cutininvestmentsofupto-25%

Post"LiberationDay"

Cutininvestmentsofmorethan-25%

Total

China

Singapore

France

Germany

Italy

Poland

Spain

UK

US

Source:AllianzTradeGlobalSurvey2025

Cashiskingbutbankloansreturnedasthesecondmostpreferredfinancingoptionforcompanies,withtwo-

thirdssayinginterestratesareatalevelthatallows

themtoborrowenoughtomaintainoperations,thoughnottoinvestandgrow.Whenaskedaboutthetopthreesourcesoffinancingforinternationaldevelopmentthisyear,50%ofcompaniessaidtheyusecashflow,followedcloselybybankloans(49%)andthenstatesupportandpaymentterms(39%each).IntheUS,theshareoffirms

usingcashflowishighestamongpeers(56%)whilein

Chinaitisbankloans(57%),mostprobablybecause

ofincreasedpolicysupport.Whenaskedifinterest

ratesareatalevelwherefirmscanaffordtoborrow

enoughtoinvestandgrow,64%respondedfavorably,whichcanexplainthehighershareofbankloansin

totalfirmsfinancingcomparedtopastyears.Thistrendshouldcontinuetoimproveasinterestratesremainonadownwardpath.

Figure4:Financingthroughbankloansandcashflowfurtherenhancedin2025

UK

France

Spain

Poland

Singapore

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

TotalUS

Italy

GermanyChina

Bankloans

Cashflows

Statesupport

Paymentterms

financialplan(e.g.

equityfunding)

Bondissuances

Buynowpaylater

Morecomplex

Source:AllianzTradeGlobalSurveys2025

20May2025

9

Morethanhalfofexportersexpect

longerpaymenttermsin2025

Only11%ofexportcompaniescontinuetobepaid

within30days(stablecomparedtolastyear’ssurvey),withtheshareinthetopthreeexportersoftheworld

(US,ChinaandGermany)evenbelowpeers.Roughly

70%ofcompaniesarepaidbetween30and70days,

withtheshareslightlyhigherintheUK(75%),France

(73%),Italy(73%)andtheUS(73%).Attheoppositeendofthespectrum,Germany,ItalyandPolandrecorded

anoticeabledecreaseinthelongestexportpayment

delayscomparedto2024.Chinastillstandsoutwithmorecompaniesexperiencingthelongestexportpayment

delays:6%ofcompaniesarepaidafter90days,comparedto3%forourentiresample.Manufacturingfirmsin

particulararewaitingthelongesttobepaid.Overall,firmsintheretail,computersandtelecom,constructionand

automotivesectorshaveseenshorterexportpayment

terms(lessthan50daysonaverage)relativetoother

sectors,whileanotableshareofrespondentsinthe

transportequipment,energy,electricity,metals,paper

andagrifoodsectorsindicatedlongexportpaymentterms(above50daysonaverage).Allsectorscombined,the

larger(lower)theturnoverthehighertheshareoflonger(lower)exportpaymentterms,with23%ofsurveyed

companieshavingaturnoveraboveEUR3bnfacing

paymenttermsexceeding70days–andeven26%of

surveyedcompanieshavingaturnoveraboveEUR5bnfacingpaymenttermsexceeding70days–comparedto18%fortheoverallsampleaverage.

Thetradewarhassignificantlyreversedexpectationsinpaymenttermsamongexporters,exceptinGermany.

Priorto“LiberationDay”,36%ofrespondentssaidthey

expectedexporttermstoincreaseinthenextsixto12

monthsand31%saidtheywouldremainstable(Figure

5),animprovementcomparedtothelastyear(42%and24%in2024,respectively).However,after“Liberation

Day”,theshareofexportersworriedthatthelengthof

paymentwillincreasehassurgedto+53%(+16pps),withevenlargerrisesinItalyandSpain(+29ppsand+24pps,respectively).ThenumbersfortheUSandItalyarenownoticeablyhigherthanlastyear:Italystandsoutwithtwooutofthreeexportersfearingariseinpaymentterms,

followedbytheUS.Germanyistheonlyexception,withnosignificantchangeinexpectationsafter“LiberationDay”

–andthelargestproportionofexportersanticipatinga

declineinpaymentterms(32%).Overall,thisdeteriorationinpaymenttermsformorethanoneintwoexportersis

widespreadacrossallcompanysizes,especiallythosewithfewerthan100employees,andacrossthekeysectors,

notablywholesaleandretail(56%),agriculture(54%)

andmanufacturing(51%).Inaddition,thisextensioninpaymentdelaysisexpectedtobesignificant,exceeding7days,inhalfofthecases.Conversely,28%offirms

inagricultureexpectthelengthofpaymenttermsto

decrease(comparedwith32%overthewholesample).Alargershareofrespondentsinthemanufacturingandtradesectorsexpectthelengthofpaymenttermsto

remainstable(24%and24%,respectively).

Thetradewarhaspushednearlyhalfofexportersto

expectanincreaseinnon-paymentrisk,withthoseintheUS,ItalyandUKmostconcerned.48%ofcompaniesarenowanticipatingmoreriskoverthenextsixto12months–comparedto38%priortothestartofthetradeconflictand37%in2024.Expectednon-paymentriskhasincreased

notablyintheUK(+24pps)andtheUS(+21pps),bothof

which,togetherwithItaly,nowrecordthehighestshareoffirmsexpectingariseinnon-paymentrisk(62%,56%and59%,respectively).Corporatefearsaremoremeasured

inChina(43%)butalso,andaboveall,inGermanyand

France(34%and34%respectively).Interestingly,exportersinwholesaleandretailtrade(50%)aremoreworried

abouttheriskofnon-paymentincreasingthanexportersinmanufacturing(46%)andagriculture(40%).Allsectorscombined,thelarger(lower)theturnover,thehighertheshareofgreater(lower)non-paymentrisk.

AllianzResearch

10

Figure5:Expectationsofchangeregardingthelengthofexportpaymenttermsinthenextsixto12months,%oftotalcompanies,beforeandafterUS“LiberationDay”

100

80

60

40

20

0

IncreaseStableDecrease

TotalChinaSingaporeFranceGermanyItalyPolandSpainUKUS

Source:AllianzTradeGlobalSurvey2025

Figure6:Shareofrespondentsexpectingtheriskofexportnon-paymentsrisktoriseinthenextsixto12months,%oftotalcompanies,2025vs2024

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2025postUS"LiberationDay"2025preUS"LiberationDay"2024

48435334345947515662

TotalChinaSingaporeFranceGermanyItalyPolandSpainUKUS

Source:AllianzTradeGlobalSurveys2024and2025

20May2025

11

Copingmechanisms:frontloading,rerouting,passingonhighercosts

anddiversifying

ThoughtherecentUS-ChinatradedealbringstheUS

averageimporttariffrateonChinato39%,downfrom

aneye-watering103%,thisisstillmuchhigherthanthe13%appliedbeforethesecondTrumpadministration.Asaresult,USfirmswilllikelycontinuetofrontloadimportsasastrategicresponse,alongsidereroutingshipments.

AheadofUStariffannouncementson2April,79%ofUS

businessesimportingfromChinaandtheEUhadalreadybeguntofrontloadimportstoavoidtariffincreases.US

businessimportingfromChinawereespeciallyactiveas

25%hadalreadyfrontloadedshipmentstotheUSeven

beforetheelectioninNovember2024.Thiswaslikely

motivatedbythehigherlikelihoodofanintensifyingUS-

Chinatradewar,whichhadalreadybeeninplacesincethefirstTrumpadministration.Incontrast,USimportersfromtheEUseemedcomparativelyslowerandamajorityonlybeganincreasingimportsaftertheUSelection.Upuntil

justbefore“LiberationDay”,18%ofUSimportersfromthe

EUindicatedthattheyhadplanstofrontloadshipments,morethanthe12%thatwerestillplanningondoingso

fromChina.Nowthatadealhasbeenreachedbetween

theUSandChinatotemporarilyreducethebilateraltariffhikes,companiescouldbeinclinedtoconsiderincreasingshipmentsagaintoprotectthemselvesagainstpotential

renewedupsidechangesontariffs.Seekingalternative

shippingroutestokeepcustomscostsundercontrolis

alsohighoncompanies’minds,with62%ofrespondents

intheUSsayingtheywoulddosoafter“LiberationDay”.Reroutingisbeingfacilitatedbylowershippingcosts,

whichhavedroppedbyalmost-50%sincethebeginning

oftheyear.Weexpectreroutingwillcontinueasa

mitigationstrategyastheUStariffrateonChinaremainssignificantlyhigherthanthatappliedonemergingtrade

hubslikeSoutheastAsia,theUAE,SaudiaArabiaandLatinAmericancountries.

AllianzResearch

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Firmsarepushingcostsontoothers:fromraisingpricesontheircustomers…Priceshikesarelikelytoremain

thego-tostrategygloballytocountertariffimpacts.

Betweenbothroun