宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)及財(cái)務(wù)知識(shí)分析范文（英文版）

1、Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-1CHAPTER 1Introduction to MacroeconomicsCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-2Questions How much richer are we than our parents? How much richer will our children be than our grandparents were?

2、 Will changing jobs be easy or hard in five years? How many of us will have jobs in five years?Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-3Questions Will the businesses we work for vanish as demand for the products they make dries up? Will inflation make us poor by destr

3、oying our savings or rich by eliminating our debts?Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-4Macroeconomics. is the subdiscipline of economics that tries to answer these six questions is the branch of economics related to the economy as a wholeCopyright 2002 by The McG

4、raw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-5Macroeconomists. try to figure out why overall economic activity rises and falls try to understand what determines the level and rate of change of the price level study other variables that play a major role in determining the overall levels of product

5、ion, income, employment, and pricesCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-6Why Macroeconomics Matters Cultural Literacyability to follow and participate in public debates and discussionsunderstanding of news reports on changes in the economyCopyright 2002 by The McGr

6、aw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-7Figure 1.1 - The Daily Flow of Economic NewsCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-8Why Macroeconomics Matters Self-Interesteffects of macroeconomy on our daily livesunderstanding of changing opportunities as the economy

7、 fluctuatesCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-9Why Macroeconomics Matters Civic Responsibilitymore informed votingmore responsible macroeconomic policyCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-10Macroeconomic Policy Growth Policypoli

8、cies to accelerate or decelerate long-run economic growthmost important policies for the long-runCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-11Figure 1.2 - Long-Run Economic Growth: Sweden and Argentina, 1900-2000Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All right

9、s reserved.1-12Macroeconomic Policy Stabilization Policypolicies to smooth out the business cycle by diminishing the depth of recessions and depressionsbusiness cycles are fluctuations in production and employment booms or expansions occur when production grows and unemployment falls recessions or d

10、epressions occur when production falls and unemployment risesCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-13Figure 1.3 - The American Business Cycle: Fluctuations in Total Production Relative to the Long-Run Growth TrendCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All

11、 rights reserved.1-14Macroeconomics versus Microeconomics Macroeconomistsexamine the economy as a wholefocus on the feedback from one component of the economy to anotherstudy the total level of production and employmentbelieve that imbalances between supply and demand may be resolved by changes in q

12、uantities rather than pricesCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-15Macroeconomics versus Microeconomics Microeconomistsstudy the markets for single commodities and the behavior of individual households and firmsfocus on how competitive markets allocate resources to

13、 create consumer and producer surplusassume that imbalances between demand and supply are resolved by changes in pricesCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-16Economic Statistics and Economic Activity Economic activity is the pattern of transactions in which things

14、of real, useful value are created, transformed, and exchanged. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA)reported by the U.S. Commerce Departments Bureau of Economic AnalysisCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-17Table 1.2 - The Flow of Economic Data,2000-2001Copy

15、right 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-18Six Key Economic Variables Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)is corrected for changes in the price level (real)includes the replacement of worn-out and obsolete equipment and structures as well as new investment (gross)counts econo

16、mic activity that happens in the United States (domestic)represents the production of final goods and services (product)Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-19Six Key Economic Variables Real Gross Domestic Productoften divided by the number of workers in the econom

17、ymeasures how well the economy produces goods and services that people find usefuldoes not indicate the relative distribution of the nations economic productis an imperfect measure of economic well-beingCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-20Figure 1.4 - Officially

18、 Measured Real GDP per Worker in the United StatesCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-21Six Key Economic Variables The Unemployment Rateto be unemployed, a person must want to work and be actively looking for a job (but have not yet found one)the labor force consi

19、sts of those who are employed and those who are unemployedthe unemployment rate is equal to the number of unemployed people divided by the labor forceCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-22Figure 1.5 - The U.S. Unemployment RateCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Com

20、panies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-23Six Key Economic Variables The Unemployment Ratefrictional unemployment occurs because workers and firms spend time searching for the best matchcyclical unemployment occurs during recessions and depressionsthe unemployment rate is the best indicator of how well t

21、he economy is doing relative to its productive potentialCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-24Six Key Economic Variables The Inflation Rateis a measure of how fast the overall price level is risinghyperinflation occurs when the price level is rising by more than 2

22、0% per monthCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-25Figure 1.6 - Inflation in the United StatesCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-26Six Key Economic Variables The Interest Rateis important because it governs the redistribution of

23、 purchasing power across timethe many different interest rates in the economy vary by duration and degree of risk often move up and down togetherCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-27Six Key Economic Variables The Interest Ratenominal interest rate is the interest

24、 rate in terms of money does not take into account the effects of inflationreal interest rate is the interest rate in terms of goods and services does take into account the effects of inflationCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-28Figure 1.7 - U.S. Real Interest R

25、ates,1960-1999Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-29Six Key Economic Variables The Stock Marketis heard about most often (every day)is an index of expectations for the future a high value means that investors expect economic growth to be rapid, profits to be high,

26、 and unemployment to be lowCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-30Figure 1.8 - Real Stock Index PricesCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-31Six Key Economic Variables The Exchange Rategoverns the terms on which international trad

27、e and investment take placenominal exchange rate is the rate at which monies of different countries can be exchanged for one anotherreal exchange rate is the rate at which the goods and services produced in different countries can be exchanged for one anotherCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Compani

28、es, Inc. All rights reserved.1-32Six Key Economic Variables The Exchange Rateif domestic currency appreciates its value in terms of other currencies increases foreign-produced goods are relatively cheap for domestic buyers imports are likely to be high domestic-made goods are relatively expensive fo

29、r foreigners exports are likely to be lowCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-33Six Key Economic Variables The Exchange Rateif domestic currency depreciates its value in terms of other currencies declines domestic-produced goods are relatively cheap for foreign buy

30、ers exports are likely to be high foreign-made goods are relatively expensive for domestic buyers imports are likely to be lowCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-34Figure 1.9 - The U.S. Real Exchange Rate:The Dollar against a Composite Indexof Foreign CurrenciesCo

31、pyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-35The CurrentMacroeconomic Situation The United States - 2001economic growth has slowed to a very weak pace forecast for 2001 is that real GDP will grow by no more than 1.8%interest rates lowered through Fed policy due to lags, ef

32、fects of lower interest rates will not be felt until end of 2001 (at the earliest)inflation continues to be lowCopyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.1-36The CurrentMacroeconomic Situation The United States - recent pastfrom early 1990s to 2000, there was an economic boomunemployment fell during the 1990s lowest unemployment rate in two decades (4%) real wages increased only slightly helped to keep inflation lowCopyright 2002 by The McG