14篇2015年美賽獎原版

1、 Sustainable Development Evaluation Sustainable s attracted plenty of attention from all over the word for decades.WhilethedefinitionofsustainabledevelopmentisveryTo evaluate sustainability development. Based on our Sustainable Development Evaluation Sustainable s attracted plenty of attention from

2、all over the word for decades.WhilethedefinitionofsustainabledevelopmentisveryTo evaluate sustainability development. Based on our of a country, devise an evaluation for ysis of sustainable development, we depart the meaning resource development. We design our system by expanding ecological oaluatio

3、n method and thesubject-object method based on CRITIC toderivethecalcula the inditheharmoniousdevelopment(includeddevelopment direction) and valid development (projection of development pattern) of a country to evaluate the sustainability th product, a hyperbolic sustainable distance, is the final r

4、esult of ou the hyperbolic distance betan while the others are not. We also compare our nandideal ment ont two aspects. , which t.Wehturns tourismoreappropriateforsustainableWechooseNepalinourfurtherinvestigation,whereweinvokeARIMAtoerventionandsystemdynamicstoforecast data , we estimate the paramet

5、ers of structure equations in each subsystem Three-Stage Least Squares method, then we list the exact formulas of dynamic After exploring the current development situation andgeological characteristics of Nepal, utilize ysis and ourforecast results toe a sustainable development for Nepal, among whic

6、h modernization program performs best according to our dynamicssimulationFinally,wediscussthestrengthsandweaknessesofour.Page1ofOurASustainabilityofaCountryandysisofSustainableEcological3.2.1. Page1ofOurASustainabilityofaCountryandysisofSustainableEcological3.2.1. 3.2.2. onEF TheSustainabilityAniono

7、fOurFurtherSustainabilityDevelopmentCurrentSituationandForecastDetailsoftheEffectivenessJudgmentbyReasonabilityJudgmentbyActualUltimatePlanforSustainableDynamicSystemDynamicsandStructureSimulationRunandysisofthe 21.1. World 21.1. World o uait sustainability cnait cntaitin o 3 3 2. andproductionofwas

8、tearedeterminedandbemeasuredbyistctd. The country measured is relatively o environment data of each the chosen country is available. o Theisticaldataisvalid. Theoperatingproperty andmechanism ofa countryis relativelyfromothers. 43. SustainabilityofaCountryand peoples descendants ability 43. Sustaina

9、bilityofaCountryand peoples descendants ability c countrys Section 3.2 5 countrys o 5 countrys o 3.2. Ecological o o areas areas appropriated carrying onEFThebalancefactorlacksenough 6 each other. Whats ThecalculationofEFmaybeextremelyhardandmayleadtohuge 6 each other. Whats ThecalculationofEFmaybee

10、xtremelyhardandmayleadtohuge o iveof Whats more, EF does not reflect the balanceconcept of sustainable Section 3.3. TheIndex Section .1 7 7 Figure 1 Figure1 8 8 Kendalls + Spearmans Table1 Sustainability Section Figure 2 standard sustainable development ideal development direction 9Figure2 Harmoniou

11、s 9Figure2 Harmonious regresysis Harmonious development countrys countrys Figure3 udat 0 0 Valid development is the t a countrys t can reflect Figure weakness Whenand hyperbolic sustainable /3 AnionofOur Missing ion 1 R “mi” Sustainabilityoffive 1 R “mi” Sustainabilityoffive Figure 4 Figure 4 Table2

12、 We invoke the same method to evaluate remaining countries development. It Table France 2 2 L Section Further TheDynamics ofOur predicted egrated Moving Average o evaluate a countrys development sustainability. We will discuss Section 5 Policy countrys o Comparisonwithother m objective subjective he

13、uristic Page13ofsiblyattainveryinaccurateresults,llyinhigh-situation.Asresult, heuristic search algorithm is hardly appropriate for measuring sustainability, aloneapplytoBy contrast, our is much more stable. We invoke a series of significancePage13ofsiblyattainveryinaccurateresults,llyinhigh-situati

14、on.Asresult, heuristic search algorithm is hardly appropriate for measuring sustainability, aloneapplytoBy contrast, our is much more stable. We invoke a series of significance test to ensure the rationality and reasonability of results and the result certainaslongasthedataisvalid.Inaddition,theiono

15、fouris4. SustainabilityDevelopmentOurchoiceisNepal,andweimplementourusingthedatafromtheWorld.whatfollow,weyzethecurrentsituationofNepalandtheforecastresult.eourplanfor4.1. CurrentSituationandForecastWeimplementour.Figure 5 showstheNepalesedevelopment from2003 to2012.Weinfer fromthet Nepal develops i

16、n a sustainable way, as the sustainable distance is nthe threshold . Further on, in order to e a 20 years tcandrawtheplanaccordingtoitdevelopmentAs is mentioned in Section 3.3.4, weinvoke ARIMA to forecast each index 20 years withR3.1.2and package“tseries” and “forecast”.The reason weinvokemis the w

17、e consider are most ionary time series data. In m.Consequently,ARIMAturnsoutthebestchoiceforforecast.AsanweshowtheforecastresultofGDP(percapita)inFigure6.Thegreycolorareaandthe light blue color area represent confidence level of 0.8 and 0.95 respectively. ingtolower rightcorner (environmental deteri

18、oration),andthetrendismore 4 4 4.2. Detailsofthe Effectiveness Judgment by Table 3Figure 7 Table 3 Page15of Reasonability Judgment by Actual t our provides several rough directions of our plan, it remains to and substantiate them by reality. To this end we list some basic characteristic of backward

19、agricultural country, low and medium political stability (Nepalese InstabilityIndexis7.5Page15of Reasonability Judgment by Actual t our provides several rough directions of our plan, it remains to and substantiate them by reality. To this end we list some basic characteristic of backward agricultura

20、l country, low and medium political stability (Nepalese InstabilityIndexis7.5in2009-2010)1,distinctivetourism(MtEverest,forest park in sia, lots of rare animals). In addition, Nepalese education plan 1971 fastened the development of Education and the current education us improveddramatically.Basedon

21、thesecases,thedrawasiblesolutionsible 1. EducationNepalese secondary school enrollment rate is 65.82% in 2012. Although the sus of Nepal has progresses dramatically, e, women, and people can hardly get equal s to education. This education program will sofeducationtothesepeopleandraisethesecondaryenr

22、ollment.Andtheexpectstoenhancetheeducationexpenditureby1.4%every2. Modernizatione a t aims to support Nepalese modernization, 1 ReduceCO2-Modernization - 6 6 r3. Economic Nepals tourism and light industry, thus providing more job opportunity which Dynamic eractions Figure 8 abe 5 7 Figure 8 Table 5

23、7 Figure 8 Table 5 Section . Society =73.30060.7910 8 Figure 8 Figure Figure9 able Figure10 9Economic Education Modernization Table6 9Economic Education Modernization Table6 able 6 ysisof theOur invokes and expand the concept of ecological Thesolving sishandyandthesolutionisstable. Section The resul

24、t of our d Our has a strong sense of alcgrud Our canbeo higher dimen a Page20ofsystemdynamicsoffersahandywaytodetermineeveryl6.2. Thedoesnottake ingoconsider. The cannot forecast ing disasters for a country, thus sustainabilityisnotsarilyermsoftheseunpredictableTheisticaldatausedinimplementing ofisn

25、ot completePage20ofsystemdynamicsoffersahandywaytodetermineeveryl6.2. Thedoesnottake ingoconsider. The cannot forecast ing disasters for a country, thus sustainabilityisnotsarilyermsoftheseunpredictableTheisticaldatausedinimplementing ofisnot completeWecannotfindalldata werequiredfor sustainability

26、(4). y, extensive l and influence would y help ICM to Thedynamic system can only he linear part of the system. invoke 3SLS to solve the whichestimatethe parameters by linear .Consequently, only linear part of relation are utilized in our Meanwhile,thedynamicsystemisnotcompletebecauseoflackofBurton I. Report on Reports: Our Common Future: The World Environment and DevelopmentJ. Environment: Science and Policy for WackernagelM.AnevaluationoftheecologicalJ.EcologicalEconomics,31(3):317-MakingJ. Forest Science, 1997, 43(2): 305-305.Zhang F Y, Pu L