房地產(chǎn) -房地產(chǎn)：中指｜中美關(guān)稅博弈背景下“穩(wěn)地產(chǎn)”意義重大增量政策窗口臨近 202504

中指｜中美關(guān)稅博弈背景下“穩(wěn)地產(chǎn)1計宏觀政策力度將加大，貨幣政策有望加快放松。房地產(chǎn)作為關(guān)聯(lián)消費與投資的重要內(nèi)需領(lǐng)域，其“止跌回穩(wěn)”重要性更加凸顯，預(yù)計接下來因城施策調(diào)減|正文|效），疊加此前20%關(guān)稅，今年累計加征關(guān)稅稅率54%2美國政府宣布對中國輸美商品征收“對等關(guān)稅”的稅率由34%提高至84%我國對美出口則從3.16萬億人名幣上升至3.73萬億人民幣，年均增長3.1%，低于同期出3貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)開始后，中國一方面加強與其他國家的經(jīng)貿(mào)合作來對沖對美出口影響，另一方歲占19.4%，與購房主力人群高度契合；高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)從業(yè)者占33.1%，外貿(mào)/制造業(yè)占關(guān)稅爭端對于購房決策的影響調(diào)查顯示，78.7%的受訪者短期傾向于觀望或暫緩購房引發(fā)全民關(guān)注。從對企業(yè)的影響程度來看，多數(shù)受訪者認為美國加征關(guān)稅對企業(yè)經(jīng)營存在從居民購房決策受影響程度來看，多數(shù)受訪者傾向于暫緩決策，等待市場走勢和政策調(diào)整更加明朗。其中78.7%的受訪者認為關(guān)稅政策會影響其購房決策，主要體現(xiàn)為加是制約其購房節(jié)奏的最主要原因，其次為還貸能力擔憂，反映出受訪者普遍受不確定性影62024年全國重點城市外貿(mào)依存度情況(人民幣:億元)序號省份梯隊城市進出口總額出口總額進口總額GDP外貿(mào)依存度(進出口額/GDP)出口依存度(出口/GDP)1廣西三四線崇左273023044251313207.9%175.5%2浙江三四線金華8795771910766926127.0%3廣東一線深圳45048281221692636802122.4%76.4%4廣東三四線東莞138808897498312282113.0%72.4%5江蘇二線蘇州261931636998242672798.0%61.2%6廣東三四線中山28412491349414368.6%60.1%7福建二線廈門9326498043468589108.6%58.0%8浙江三四線舟山3703123524682226 166.3%55.5%9浙江二線寧波14203945547471814878.3%52.1%廣東三四線珠海32422296947447972.4%51.3%浙江三四線嘉興481835941225757063.7%47.5%浙江三四線紹興41373762375836949.4%45.0%山東三四線威海20401618422372954.7%43.4%14廣東三四線江門19171611306421045.5%38.3%浙江三四線湖州16641531133421339.5%36.3%16廣東三四線惠州393822191719613664.2%36.2%浙江三四線26262386240665639.4%35.8%上海一線上海4268118176245055392779.1%33.7%海南三四線儋州12943359591013127.7%33.0%20山東二線青島9077527837981671954.3%31.6%21江蘇二線無錫7709503726731626347.4%31.0%22山東三四線坊358324501133820343.7%29.9%23廣東三四線佛山4997387411231336237.4%29.0%24浙江二線杭州8549595026002186039.1%27.2%25廣西三四線防城港12823149681168109.8%26.9%26浙江二線溫州29372520417971930.2%25.9%27福建三四線寧德14771006470390237.8%25.8%28山東三四線煙臺4723277419501078343.8%25.7%29河南二線鄭州5566355120151453238.3%24.4%30江蘇三四線327426046701081430.3%24.1%31浙江三四線衢州786539247226334.7%23.8%32安徽三四線蕪湖14721204267512128.7%23.5%33山東三四線臨沂16921534158655625.8%23.4%34遼寧二線大連449722002297951747.2%23.1%35廣東一線廣州11238700542333103336.2%22.6%36天津市二線天津8116391442021802445.0%21.7%37江蘇三四線南通3950260813421242231.8%21.0%38陜西二線西安4118277613421331830.9%20.8%39二線成都8390464137492351135.7%19.7%40廣西三四線百色44039149200521.9%19.5%41山東三四線日照1279492787255750.0%19.3%42山東三四線濱州1297654643340538.1%19.2%43安徽二線合肥3791257312181350828.1%19.0%44江蘇二線南京5459346319961850129.5%18.7%45福建二線福州350725689391423724.6%18.0%46江蘇三四線16821223459702124.0%17.4%47山東三四線濟寧1187993194586720.2%16.9%48浙江三四線麗水42436756218119.4%16.8%49廣東三四線潮州28322656140320.2%50河北三四線保定79475341477316.6%15.8%7為觀察不同類型城市的房地產(chǎn)市場變化，我們將監(jiān)測周度數(shù)據(jù)的重點城市按出口占序號1234金華深圳出口依存度↓(出口額/GDP)76.4%72.4%61.2%序號城市序號城市(出口額/GDP)11威海43.4%12江門38.3%13湖州36.3%15上海33.7%6廈門58.0%16青島31.6%7舟山55.5%17無錫31.0%8寧波52.1%18濰坊29.9%9珠海51.3%19佛山29.0%10紹興45.0%20杭州27.2%注：標紅為監(jiān)測二手房周