The Challenge of Energy and Environmentin China and the World

1、The Challenge of Energy and Environment in China and the World John P. HoldrenTeresa & John Heinz Professor of Environmental PolicyJohn F. Kennedy School of Government Professor of Environmental Science & PolicyDepartment of Earth & Planetary SciencesHARVARD UNIVERSITYDirectorTHE WOODS H

2、OLE RESEARCH CENTERPanel Presentation for the Harvard Alumni Association Global Series Meeting Shanghai 29 March 2008Why is energy important?Because meeting basic human needs is important economic growth is important, the environment is important, international relations are important,and energy is

3、intimately entwined with allfour.Economically Affordable energy is a crucial ingredient of sustained prosperity & sustainable development. Energy is 10% of GDP, 10% of world trade, and a large part of trade deficits in importing countries Costly energy inflation, recession, frustration of econom

4、ic aspirations of the poor. Investments in energy-supply systems are $800 billion/yr worldwide; 15% of gross domestic investment in developing countries.Environmentally Energy supply = major contributor to dangerous & difficult environmental problems from local to global Specifically, energy sup

5、ply is the source of most indoor and outdoor air pollution, most acid rain much of the hydrocarbon and trace-metal pollution of soil and ground water almost all of the oil humans add to the ocean most radioactive waste most of the human emissions of greenhouse gases that are disrupting global climat

6、e. International relations Oil & gas are so important to economies that suppliers can use cut-offs as a weapon, and importers may threaten or wage war to gain or maintain access. Spread of nuclear-energy technologies spreads access to nuclear-weapon capabilities Energy systems are “force-multipl

7、ier” targets for terrorists: dams, nuclear reactors, oil refineries Internal & international tensions & upheavals can result from energy-strategy inadequacies that threaten, create, or perpetuate great economic or environmental harm.Growth of world population & prosperity over past 150 y

8、ears brought 20-fold increase in energy useGrowth rate 1850-1950 was 1.45%/yr, driven mainly by coal. From 1950-2000 it was 3.15%/yr, driven mainly by oil & natural gas. Rapid growth & high fossil-fuel dependence are continuingGrowth rate 2000-2006 averaged 2.7%/yr.Units are millions of tonn

9、es of oil equivalentWEO 2007Much of the growth is in Asia Bars show role of China & India in growth 2000-2006 USA China India Population, millions 299 1311 1122 GDP/pers, 2006$ (ppp) 44300 7900 3800 Total energy supply, EJ 106 86 29 of which fossil fuels 88% 84% 62% Oil consumption, EJ 42 16 5 O

10、il imports, Mb/d 12.3 3.5 1.9 Electricity generation, TWh4250 2830 730 of which coal generates 50% 80% 70% Fossil C emitted in CO2, MtC 1710 1640 380 ppp = at purchasing-power parity, EJ = exajoules, TWh = terawatt-hours, MtC = megatons of carbon in CO2. Total energy supply includes biomass fuels. E

11、lectricity generation is gross, not net. Some comparative country data for 2006Continued high growth is expected to 2030 2006 2030Primary energy, exajoulesWorld 526 800United States 106 150China 86 175Electricity, trillion kWhWorld 19.3 35 US EIA 2007 and IEA WEO 2007 “reference” forecastsand beyond

12、, if “business as usual” continues World use of primary energy reaches 2.5 times the 2000 level by 2050, 4 times by 2100. World electricity generation reaches 3 times the 2000 level by 2050, 5 times by 2100.WEO 2007Fossil fuels are expected to continue to dominate supply in the decades immediately a

13、headWEO 2007Projected growth of oil use for road transport in Asia is particularly largeWEO 2007These oil demands are projected to be met mainly by importsProjected growth of coal-fired electric power plants in Asia is also high Coal-fired capacity, GWe, actual & USEIA projection USA China India

14、 World 2003 310 239 67 1120 2010 319 348 95 13002020 345 531 140 1600 2030 457 785 161 2000Source: US EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006World coal-electric capacity goes up 900 GWe by 2030, and 640 GWe of the increase is in China and India.High fossil-fuel dependence already causes big problems

15、for Asia and the world Increasing dependence on imported oil & natural gas means economic vulnerability, as well as international tensions and potential for conflict over access & terms. Coal burning for electricity and industry and oil burning in vehicles are main sources of severe urban an

16、d regional air pollution SOx, NOx, hydrocarbons, soot with big impacts on public health, acid precipitation. Emissions of CO2 from ALL fossil-fuel burning are largest driver of global climate disruption, already associated with increasing harm to human well-being and rapidly becoming more severe. Th

17、e oil market, pollutant transport, & climate are global. Each country is affected by what other countries do.Developing Asias oil imports from Persian Gulfare now bigger than North Americas and growing fasterSource: EIA International Energy Outlook 2006二氧化硫和氮氧化物產(chǎn)生量預(yù)測二氧化硫和氮氧化物產(chǎn)生量預(yù)測Forecasts of SO

18、2 and NO2 Emissions情景情景 Scenario 200020102020二氧化硫二氧化硫（萬噸）（萬噸） SO2 (10,000 tons)A 情景情景 Scenario A271940725738B 情景情景 Scenario B271939004947C 情景情景 Scenario C271934434056氮氧化物氮氧化物（萬噸）（萬噸） NOX (10,000 tons)A 情景情景 Scenario A198834174982B 情景情景 Scenario B198832734295C 情景情景 Scenario C198828893521Liu Shijin, T

19、he State Council, 2004Under the preferred (green) scenario, Chinese NOx emissions still increase 75% by 2020, SOx emissions by 50%.Health Costs from Particulate Pollution in ChinaSource: Clear Water, Blue Skies; Chinas Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997.Wet and dry reactive nitrogen de

20、position from the atmosphere, early 1990s and projected for 2050Acid precipitation under BAU growthChina passes USA as biggest CO2 emitter in 20072005 was the hottest year on record; the 13 hottest all occurred since 1990, 23 out of the 24 hottest since 1980.J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 (26

21、 Sept 2006)Green bars show 95% confidence intervalsThe temperature of the Earth is rising steeplyCYear196519701975198019851990199520002005Mean wind speed (m/s)2.02.12.22.32.42.52.62.72.8Windy days with daily mean wind speed 5m/s (day)15202530354045Y = -0.02161X + 45.275(R2 = 0.94, p 0.001)wind speed

22、windy daysY = -0.8022X + 1620.66(R2 = 0.95, p 2C (gold) is much more demanding than path for 50% chance of avoiding 3C (green).BAU ( 6C+)(3C)(2C)Stabilizing CO2 concentration to limit T increase requires big emissions reductions from BAU Solutions: better technologies are keyONLY WITH IMPROVED TECHN

23、OLOGIES CAN WE limit oil imports & oil dependence overall without incurring excessive economic or environmental costs improve urban air quality while meeting growing demand for automobiles use the worlds abundant coal resources without intolerable impacts on regional air quality, acid rain, and

24、global climate expand the use of nuclear energy enough to make a difference for climate change and oil & gas dependence, while still reducing accident/terrorism & proliferation risksNeeded new or improved technologies Cleaner, more fuel-efficient motor vehicles: hybrids (diesels, plug-in hyb

25、rids) More energy-efficient commercial & residential buildings Fuel- and electricity-efficient manufacturing Improved coal technologies to make electricity & hydrogen with CO2 capture & storage Advanced nuclear reactors with increased safety and proliferation-resistant fuel cycles Biofue

26、ls that dont compete with food & forests Cheaper photovoltaic cellsPolicy innovation is needed in order to provide the scale, continuity, & coordination of effort in energy research & development needed to realize in a timely way the required technological innovations get the benefits of market competition in the electricity sector while protecting public goods (provision of basic energy services to the poor, preservation of adequate system reliability, protection of environment) ensure the rapid diffusion of cleaner and more ef