全球資產(chǎn)膨脹與資產(chǎn)評(píng)估業(yè)的挑戰(zhàn)GlobalAssetInflationand

1、全球資產(chǎn)膨脹與資產(chǎn)評(píng)估業(yè)的挑戰(zhàn)Global Asset Inflation and Challenge for The Valuation Profession殷劍峰Yin Jianfeng中國(guó)社科院金融所，所長(zhǎng)助理IFB of CASS, Assistant General Director危機(jī)前的全球資產(chǎn)膨脹Global Asset Inflation Before Crisis在這次全球危機(jī)前，在這次全球危機(jī)前，主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體金融資產(chǎn)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體金融資產(chǎn)膨脹的速度遠(yuǎn)快于膨脹的速度遠(yuǎn)快于GDP增長(zhǎng)率增長(zhǎng)率Before the global crisis we are in, financial

2、assets in major developed countries grows at a striking higher speed than the GDP growth. Financial Asset/GDP金融發(fā)展越來(lái)越來(lái)脫離實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)Financial Development Is Deviating from What Real Economy Really Needs以美國(guó)為例，在各類(lèi)金融工具以美國(guó)為例，在各類(lèi)金融工具（不含衍生品）中，為金融活（不含衍生品）中，為金融活動(dòng)服務(wù)的比重不斷上升，危機(jī)動(dòng)服務(wù)的比重不斷上升，危機(jī)前已經(jīng)達(dá)到了前已經(jīng)達(dá)到了50。For instance,

3、in total amount of financial products (excluding derivatives) of U.S., the ratio of products offering service for the financial industry increases quickly and reaches to 50% before crisis.Shares of financial products with different functions in total amount金融資產(chǎn)膨脹：房地產(chǎn)泡沫Asset Inflation: Housing Market

4、 Bubble以美國(guó)居民資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)為例，隨著房?jī)r(jià)攀升，從2000年開(kāi)始，有形資產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)快于金融資產(chǎn)，其占比在2005年達(dá)到了近40。Because of housing price bubble, the ratio of tangible asset to total assets of U.S. household increases from 30% in 2000 to 40% in 2005.金融資產(chǎn)膨脹：金融股泡沫Asset Inflation: Financial Stock Bubble 受房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的推動(dòng)，美國(guó)金受房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的推動(dòng)，美國(guó)金融股票的市值與非金融股票市融股票的市值與非

5、金融股票市值的比重從值的比重從2001年的年的15上上升到升到2006年的年的45。Housing bubble contributes significant proceeds to U.S. financial corporations and boosts their stock prices. The ratio of market value of financial corporations to non-financial ones increases from 15% in 2001 to 45% in 2006. 金融資產(chǎn)膨脹：證券化泡沫Asset Inflation: Se

6、curitization Bubble美國(guó) “私營(yíng)”證券資產(chǎn)占比由80年代的0上升到2007年的12，資產(chǎn)總額達(dá)到了4萬(wàn)5千億美元。In U.S, non-GSE securitization develops quickly since 1980s, and amounts to 12% of total securitization market in 2007.金融資產(chǎn)膨脹促成了美國(guó)居民的消費(fèi)熱潮Asset Inflation Promotes Consumption Boom in U.S. Household Sector. 美國(guó)居民部門(mén)的儲(chǔ)蓄率從80年代初的10左右持續(xù)下降到200

7、6年的接近0；同時(shí)，儲(chǔ)蓄額也從90年代的3500億美元持續(xù)，在有些季度甚至是負(fù)儲(chǔ)蓄。Saving rate of U.S. household decreased to nearly zero in 2006.金融資產(chǎn)膨脹刺激了銀行消費(fèi)信貸Asset Inflation Stimulates Bank Loan to Household.對(duì)居民的貸款和對(duì)居民的住宅按揭貸款占美國(guó)銀行全部貸款的比重上升到2006年的67和55。In total U.S. bank loan, the ratio of household loan and mortgage increased to 67% and

8、 55% in 2006.經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)儲(chǔ)蓄率下降消費(fèi)率提高資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)美元需求增加信貸便利性（美元?jiǎng)?chuàng)造）財(cái)富效應(yīng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表改善以美國(guó)為中心的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式以美國(guó)為中心的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式 Global Economic Growth Model關(guān)于資產(chǎn)膨脹和危機(jī)的認(rèn)識(shí)Conclusions about Asset Inflation and Crisis 美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)反周期的貨幣政策 Anti-Business Cycle style of Monetary Policy of FED 自由放任的金融監(jiān)管政策 Laissez-Faire Financial Regulation Sy

9、stem 評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)的責(zé)任：模型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn) The Problems of Rating Agency: Model Risk, Moral Risk 共舞的中國(guó)股市和房市In China, Real Estate Market Is Dancing with Stock Market as well. 自2003年以來(lái)，中國(guó)的房屋銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格、土地交易價(jià)格與股市市盈率的變化高度相關(guān)。In China, housing price and land price has a high correlation with PE ratio of stock market since 2003.中國(guó)似乎

10、也正在經(jīng)歷資產(chǎn)膨脹的過(guò)程China Is Undergoing an Underlying Process of Asset Inflation and Possible Asset Bubble.如果假設(shè)2002年底中國(guó)住房和土地的收益率為10，那么，今天則分別只有1.9和4.5。If we assume the returns in housing and land market are 10% at the end of 2002, then they are only 1.9 and 4.5 separately today. 唯一的區(qū)別：中國(guó)的高儲(chǔ)蓄率The Only Differe

11、nce: Higher Saving Rate in China Comparing with U.S.前四大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的儲(chǔ)蓄率和投資率（）前四大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的儲(chǔ)蓄率和投資率（）美國(guó)美國(guó)日本日本德國(guó)德國(guó)中國(guó)中國(guó)儲(chǔ)蓄儲(chǔ)蓄率率投資投資率率儲(chǔ)蓄儲(chǔ)蓄率率投資投資率率儲(chǔ)蓄儲(chǔ)蓄率率投資投資率率儲(chǔ)蓄儲(chǔ)蓄率率投資投資率率1980年代年代18.420.331.929.820.321.934.935.21990年代年代17.419.029.928.322.622.139.837.82001200814.118.924.923.623.017.945.940.9政策建議Suggestions 關(guān)于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的建議：既要穩(wěn)定，又不要泡沫。 Suggestion f