生產(chǎn)計劃與控制實驗報告 (1)

1、生產(chǎn)計劃與控制實驗報告 (1) OperationsManagement ExperimentationReport Name:陳凡 Class:工業(yè)gc1102 Studentnumber:0121104930822 SchoolofMechanicalandElectricalEngineering TheWuhanUniversityofTechnology 12.11.20XX Experimentation1: QuantitativeDemandingForecasting 4年則大體呈下降趨勢。原因可能是國家政策轉(zhuǎn)變或是銷售地點轉(zhuǎn)變引起的轉(zhuǎn)變，所以做預估時舍棄前3年的數(shù)據(jù)。 再觀

2、看數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)覺離散程度很小，倆變量相關性很強，所以使用線性規(guī)劃的話能較精確合適地預估下一年四季度的銷量。 假如是用移動平均或指數(shù)平滑的話，預估4季度則預估范圍顯得過大，如3，4季度可能需用到1,2季度銷量的預估值所以可能預估誤差偏大。 本次預估供應了40個數(shù)據(jù)，而且數(shù)據(jù)相關性較強，使用線性規(guī)劃，借用專業(yè)軟件工作量也不大。所以綜合考慮選用線性規(guī)劃的方法進行預估，且不需要考慮季節(jié)因素。*TIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING* -PROBLEMNAME:Untitled -SalesSalesABSOLUTE PERIODACTUALFORECASTERROR 1319.000

3、314.6724.328 2324.000322.3291.671 3336.000329.9856.015 4340.000337.6422.358 5348.000345.2992.701 6355.000352.9552.045 7354.000360.6126.612 8367.000368.2681.268 9375.000375.9250.925 10379.000383.5814.581 11385.000391.2386.238 12396.000398.8942.894 13404.000406.5512.551 14416.000414.2071.793 15422.000

4、421.8640.136 16430.000429.5210.479 17436.000437.1771.177 18439.000444.8345.834 19450.000452.4902.490 20459.000460.1471.147 21470.000467.8032.197 22475.000475.4600.460 23485.000483.1161.884 24489.000490.7731.773 25505.000498.4296.571 26513.000506.0866.914 27516.000513.7422.258 28518.000521.3993.399 -

5、SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%) PERIODFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND29529.056522.695535.416 30536.712530.351543.073 31544.369538.008550.729 32552.025545.664558.386 REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bX WHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIOD a=307.0159b=7.6565 R=0.998R-SQUARE=0.9966 MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST28PERIODS=2

6、.953 MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=12.909 MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.0 STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=3.7285 相關系數(shù)R=0.998肯定系數(shù)R2=0.996 可以看出，自變量和應變量的相關性很強，故此預估使用的方法線性回歸精確度較高?？隙ㄕ`差MAD反應預估精度，本試驗預估精度為2.953，說明預估精度很高。 標準差反應數(shù)據(jù)的離散程度，本試驗標準差為3.7285，較小，數(shù)據(jù)離散程度低。 此次預估肯定肯定系數(shù)很高，自變量和應變量的相關性很強，因此本人對線性回歸的預

7、估值很有信念。 用另一種長期預估模型季節(jié)性線性回歸再一次進行預估，得出結果: R=0.989,R-SQUARE=0.9771, MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST28PERIODS=7.927, MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)RORALLPASTPERIODS=86.5, MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.152, STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=9.6552 對比可以看出本次結果中相關系數(shù)與肯定系數(shù)小于上組，所以，無需考慮季節(jié)性因素影響的預估模型。 Experimentation2

8、:LinearProgramming（LP）Case1：QualityPixelsInc. *LINEARPROGRAMMING* =PROBLEMNAME:Untitled =MinZ=180X1+160X2+60X3+40X4+120X5+150X6+90X7+30X8 +150X9+130X10+190X11+140X12+40X13+35X14+160X15+150X16+110X17+125X18+80X19+105X20+95X21+125X22+60X23+50X24 ST (1)1X1+1X2+1X3+1X4+1X5+1X6=15000 (6)1X2+1X8+1X14+1X20

9、>=15000 (7)1X3+1X9+1X15+1X21>=15000 (8)1X4+1X10+1X16+1X22>=20000 (9)1X5+1X11+1X17+1X23>=20000 (10)1X6+1X12+1X18+1X24>=15000 (11)1X1+1X7+1X13+1X19=40.0000.-30000. 6>=30.0000.-20000. 7>=95.00010000.-25000. 8>=75.00015000.-30000. 9>=60.0000.-30000. 10>=50.0000.-25000. 11&l

10、t;=0.00015000.-+INF 12<=0.00015000.-+INF 13<=0.00015000.-+INF 14<=0.00020000.-+INF 15<=0.00020000.-+INF 16<=0.00015000.-+INF NOTE:THESHADOWPRICEREPRESENTSTHEAMOUNTZWOULD CHANGEIFACONSTRAINT'SRHSCHANGEDONEUNIT. - DECISIONVARIABLES: - NONBASICAMOUNTZISREDUCED(MAX)ORINCREASED(MIN) VA

11、RIABLEFORONEUNITOFXINTHESOLUTION - X1175. X2165. X595. X6135. X750. X955. X1055. X11130. X1290. X145. X1565. X1675. X1750. X1875. X1940. X2075. X2250. - Increasedto36,000pallets? 答：墨西哥的生產(chǎn)能力削減到26000，成本會增加；增加到36000，成本削減。 4.3HowcouldcostschangeiftheminimumannualrequirementsattheDallaswarehousedecreased

12、to14,000pallets?Increasedto24,000pallets? 答：當Dallas的最小需求削減到14000，成本削減；增大到24000，成本會增加。 4.4您好！由上面的計算可知：slack2slack3slack4均大于0，這表示Seoul、HongKong、Warsaw所對應的資源有剩余，若要減小生產(chǎn)成本，可以提高墨西哥工廠的生產(chǎn)能力。由影子價格可知，當其產(chǎn)量在20000-35000時，生產(chǎn)每增加一個單位成本會增加35，當產(chǎn)量超過35000時，成本會下降。 注：1、影子價格：在其它條件不變的狀況下，單位資源變化所引起的目標函數(shù)的最優(yōu)值的變化。這個定義是基于線性規(guī)劃中的

13、合理利用有限資源以求得最好的經(jīng)濟效果的規(guī)劃問題。影子價格正是這種假設條件中單位資源對目標極值的貢獻，是資源的單位價格，反映資源在企業(yè)內(nèi)部運用的貢獻狀況，稱之為資源的影子價格。通過對偶規(guī)劃方程求得。 2、松弛變量（slackvariablevalues）：若所研究的線性規(guī)劃模型的約束條件全是小于類型，那么可以通過標準化過程引入M個非負的松弛變量。當約束條件為“”（“”）類型的線性規(guī)劃問題，可在不等式左邊加上（或者減去）一個非負的新變量，即可化為等式。這個新增的非負變量稱為松弛變量（或剩余變量），也可統(tǒng)稱為松弛變量。在目標函數(shù)中一般認為新增的松弛變量的系數(shù)為零。 case2：IntegratedP

14、roductsCorporation *LINEARPROGRAMMING* =PROBLEMNAME:Untitled =MinZ=152X1+120X2+165X3+139X4+169X5+49X6+65X7 +55X8+50X9+60X10+65X11+55X12+60X13+45X14 +65X15+75X16+85X17+69X18+81X19+79X20+120X21 +122X22+125X23+136X24+119X25 ST (1)1X1+1X2+1X3+1X4+1X5=1 (2)1X6+1X7+1X8+1X9+1X10=1 (3)1X11+1X12+1X13+1X14+1X

15、15=1 (4)1X16+1X17+1X18+1X19+1X20=1 (5)1X21+1X22+1X23+1X24+1X25=1 (6)1X1+1X6+1X11+1X16+1X21=1 (7)1X2+1X7+1X12+1X17+1X22=1 (8)1X3+1X8+1X13+1X18+1X23=1 (9)1X4+1X9+1X14+1X19+1X24=1 (10)1X5+1X10+1X15+1X20+1X25=1 =SOLUTION: =ITERATIONNUMBER16 VARIABLEMIXSOLUTION - X21.000 X120.000 X181.000 X141.000 X251.0

16、00 X61.000 X110.000 X160.000 X210.000 Artificial100.000 Z402.000 AssignmentProblemSolution Dest1Dest2Dest3Dest4Dest5 Object101000 Object210000 Object300010 Object400100 Object500001 Totalcostorprofitis$402 =SENSITIVITYANALYSIS: =CONSTRAINTS: - RANGEOFRHS CONSTRAINTTYPEOFSHADOWFORWHICHSHADOW NUMBERCO

17、NSTRAINTPRICEPRICEISVALID - NOTE:RHSshadowpricesarenotmeaningful foranassignmentproblem. - DECISIONVARIABLES: - NONBASICAMOUNTZISREDUCED(MAX)ORINCREASED(MIN) VARIABLEFORONEUNITOFXINTHESOLUTION - NOTE:Herearenonbasicvariableswithzeroshadow prices.Othershadowpricevaluesareof questionablevalueinassignm

18、entproblems. - 7.1Fullyinterpretthemeaningofthesolutionthatyouobtainedin3.2.InotherwordswhatshouldmanageratIPCdo?Fullyexplainthemeaningofslackvariablevalues. 答：方案如下： 1teamcompletesB 2teamcompletesA 3teamcompletesD 4teamcompletesC 5teamcompletesE 7.2Howcouldthesolutionchangeiffurtheranalysisresultedi

19、nincreasingthedevelopmentcostofprojectCbyteam2from$55,000to$65,000?Withthenewinformation,towhichteamswouldtheprojectsbeassigned? 答：方案不變。 7.3HowcouldthesolutionchangeiffurtheranalysisresultedindecreasingthedevelopmentcostofprojectEbyteam2from$122,000to$115,000?Withthenewinformation,towhichteamswouldt

20、heprojectsbeassigned? 答：方案不變 7.4AdviseIPCmanagertohelphisdecision-making.(Notlessthan300words) 答：您好！這個問題是運籌學中的一個指派問題，運用科學的計算可知，隊伍1完成B任務，隊伍2完成A任務，隊伍3完成D任務，隊伍4完成C任務，隊伍5完成E任務，總的花費是最少的。除去花費因素，公司還應考慮其隊伍完成任務的效率及和質(zhì)量。 Experimentation3: ResourceRequirementPlanning:MRP *MATERIALSREQUIREMENTSPLANNING(MRP)* =PR

21、OBLEMNAME:Untitled =ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLot CodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize BS74001000LFL WeekNumber:12345678- GrossRequirements00000100100100ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements00000100100100PlannedOrderReceipts00000100100100PlannedOrderReleases00001001001000=A481130

22、030LFL GrossRequirements00003003003000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements00003003003000PlannedOrderReceipts00003003003000PlannedOrderReleases00030030030000-=B131120XX0LFL GrossRequirements000020XX002000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements000020XX002000Plann

23、edOrderReceipts000020XX002000PlannedOrderReleases00020XX0020000=C561110010LFL GrossRequirements00001001001000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements00001001001000PlannedOrderReceipts00001001001000PlannedOrderReleases00010010010000= D53140010085LFL GrossRequirements160710800120XX006

24、0000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available21555000000NetRequirements0655800120XX0060000PlannedOrderReceipts0655800120XX0060000PlannedOrderReleases655800120XX00600000=E22211305060MIN=500+ GrossRequirements00060060060000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available202020200000NetRequirements00058060060000PlannedOrde

25、rReceipts00058060060000PlannedOrderReleases00580600600000=F4323905020MIN=250+ GrossRequirements00020XX0020000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available2020202070120XX0170NetRequirements0001801308000PlannedOrderReceipts00025025025000PlannedOrderReleases25025025000000=G7221005020MIN=100+ GrossRequirements0002

26、0XX0020000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available303030300000NetRequirements00017020XX0000PlannedOrderReceipts00017020XX0000PlannedOrderReleases017020XX000000=H6N211205040LFL GrossRequirements00040040040000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available303030300000NetRequirements00037040040000PlannedOrderReceipts0003

27、7040040000PlannedOrderReleases00370400400000=I823903020LFL GrossRequirements00020XX0020000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available404040400000 NetRequirements00016020XX0000PlannedOrderReceipts00016020XX0000PlannedOrderReleases16020XX0000000=IN=1000+ GrossRequirements00030030030000ScheduledReceipts00000000Available40404040740440140140NetRequirements0002600000PlannedOrderR