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SecurityofSupplyinthe

GermanElectricitySector

Ashortreviewofchallengesandmeasures

2

Imprint

Thereport“SecurityofsupplyintheGermanelectricitysector-Ashortreviewofchallengesandmeasures”introducesGermanexperiencesinsecuringitsenergysecuritywhentransitioningitsenergysystemtowardsmorerenewables,aimsatsharingvaluablemeasuresandexperienceswithChineseaudiences.ItispublishedintheframeworkoftheSino-GermanEnergyPartnershipbetweentheGermanFederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandClimateAction(BMWK),theNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission(NDRC)andtheNationalEnergyAdministrationofthePeople’sRepublicofChina(NEA).Asthecentraldialogueplatformonenergybetweentwocountries,themainobjectiveofthepartnershipistofosterandadvancethefar-reachingandprofoundenergytransitionsongoinginbothcountriesbyexchangingviews,bestpracticesandknowledgeonthedevelopmentofasustainableenergysystem,primarilycenteredonimprovingenergyefficiencyandexpandingtheuseofrenewableenergy.TheDeutscheGesellschaftfürInternationaleZusammenarbeit(GIZ)GmbHimplementstheprojectundercommissionofBMWK.AsaGermanfederalenterprise,GIZsupportstheGermangovernmentintheachievementofitsgoalsininternationalcooperationforsustainabledevelopment.

Publishedby

Sino-GermanEnergyPartnershipProject

commissionedbytheGermanFederalMinistryfor

EconomicAffairsandClimateAction(BMWK)

TayuanDiplomaticOfficeBuilding1-15,

14LiangmaheSouthStreet,ChaoyangDistrict

100600Beijing,P.R.China

c/o

DeutscheGesellschaftfürInternationale

Zusammenarbeit(GIZ)GmbH

ProjectManagement:

YinYuxia,WangHao

DeutscheGesellschaftfürInternationale

Zusammenarbeit(GIZ)GmbH

Authors:

PascalHader-Weinmann(dena)

Dr.TimMennel(dena)

PercySchulzeBuschhoff(dena)

AndersHove,(GIZ)

Contributors

SimonGoess

Image&Illustrations:

Shutterstock/721369351(封面)

Shutterstock/326698985(Page5)

Shutterstock/454323052(Page32)

AdobeStock/270527054(Page34)

Design

Edelman.ergo(oncommissionofBMWK)

?Beijng,August2022

Thisreportinitsentiretyisprotectedbycopyright.Theinformationcontainedwascompiledtothebestofourknowledgeandbeliefinaccordancewiththeprinciplesofgoodscientificpractice.Theauthorsbelievetheinformationinthisreportiscorrect,completeandcurrent,butacceptnoliabilityforanyerrors,explicitorimplicit.Responsibilityforthecontentofexternalwebsiteslinkedinthispublicationalwayslieswiththeirrespectivepublishers.Thestatementsinthisdocumentdonotnecessarilyreflecttheclient’sopinion.

3

Content

1ExecutiveSummary 4

2Germanenergytransition—policies,legislation,costdevelopmentandenvironmentalimpact 6

2.1Germanclimatepolicy—thefoundationforenergysecurity 6

2.2ProminentroleofrenewableenergyinGermany’senergymix 8

2.3Affordabilityofenergy 10

2.4Sustainabilityandenvironmentalimpactoftheenergysystem 13

3SecurityofsupplyinGermany:pastandpresent 15

3.1Overviewelectricitysystem 17

3.2Electricitysystemreliability—challengesandsolutions 19

3.3Fuelsecurity 25

3.4Politicaldebateongenerationadequacy2012-2022 26

3.5Summary 29

4Ensuringadequacyinthefuture 30

4.1FutureGermanenergysupply 30

4.2Futureelectricitysector 30

4.3Futuregassector 31

5Summaryandhighlights 33

Listoffigures 35

EndNotes 36

4

1ExecutiveSummary

TheGermanenergytransition(‘Energiewende’)setsouttoshifttheentireenergysystemawayfromfossilandnuclearfuelstoclimate-neutralenergycarrierswithinonegeneration.Theseincludeelectricitybasedonrenewableenergy(RE)aswellasgreenhydrogenandhydrogenderivatives.Thetransitionalsoentailsseveralchallengesforsecurityofsupplyandenergyaffordability.Thisreportsummarizesrecentandcurrentmeasurespolicymakershaveundertakentoensuresecurityandimproveaffordability.

UntiltherecentwarinUkraine,theenergysupplysystemprovedtobereliabledespitetheprofoundchangesitunderwent.Germanyhaspursuedanactiveclimatepolicyfortwodecadeswiththepromotionofrenewableenergyatitscore.TheEnergyConceptof2010providedacomprehensiveapproachwithabroadsetoftargets,includinga35%shareofrenewableenergyinelectricitygenerationby2020.AlthoughGermanynarrowlymissedits2020emissionabatementtarget,theexpansionofrenewableenergyisgenerallyconsideredasuccess,withrenewablesreachingashareof45%inelectricitygenerationin2021.TheGermanParliamenthadalsoenactedanuclearandacoalphase-out,withnucleartoretirebytheendof2022andcoalby2038.Sincethisdecision,13of16nuclearplantshaveretiredandmanycoal-firedplantshavebeeneitherdecommissionedormothballed.

TheGermanenergytransitionhassofarproceededwithoutanyimpactonGermany’selectricitysupplysecurity,despitesomeearlierconcerns.Policymakersadoptedadjustedpoliciesandmarketrulestopreparethesystemtobecomereliablewithmorevariablerenewableenergyexpansion.TheGermanpowersystemhasfewoutagesrelativetootheradvancedeconomiesandhassteadilyimproveditsreliabilityperformanceasmeasuredbysecurityofsupplyindicators.

Germanyhasadoptedseveralmeasurestoensure

electricitysupplysecurity:

?ElectricitymarketsinGermanyfeaturehigh-volumesofday-aheadandintradaypowertradingovershorttimeintervals,andwidepricefluctuationshaveincentivisedflexibleoperationofconventional

thermalplantswithoutsubsidiesorcapacitypayments.

?MarketplayerstradeelectricityacrossthecontrolzonesofthefourGermanTSOs.Tradingtakesplaceprimarilyoverthecountry’swell-functioningandliquidelectricitymarkets.

?Furthermore,theintegrationoftheEU’sinternalmarketforelectricityprovidesadditionalsecuritybycross-borderelectricitytradeandflows.

?Inrecentyears,reformspromotenewassetcategorieslikestorageandDSMtoprovidebalancingandotherancillaryservices.

?Thegovernmentandtheregulatorspromotetheexpansionoftransmissionanddistributiongrids,contributingtotheintegrationofnewrenewableenergycapacity,thoughthetransmissionexpansionfacesdelays.Additionally,theTSOshaveincreasedtheuseofredispatchmeasurestomanagenetworkcongestiononthesystemlevel.

?Toupholdgenerationadequacy,thegovernmenthasestablishedareservesystemencompassingacapacity,anetwork,andasecurityreserve.Thereservesconsistofdecommissionedcoalandoil-firedpowerplants.

Asaresponsetophysicalgasshortages,andthenecessitytoprioritizegasstorageforwinterheating,policymakershaveallowedthereactivationofcoal-firedpowergeneratorstoreplacegasturbinestoprovideflexibilityservice.Asof2021,gas-basedgenerationprovidesaround12%ofGermanelectricityconsumption.However,gasturbinesandcombinedcycleplantscontributesignificantlytogenerationadequacyandancillaryservicesduetotheirhighflexibility.Therefore,thecurrentgassupplycrisishasimplicationsforthefutureoftheelectricitysystem.Asoftoday,Germanyhasactivateditsmostlycoal-basedsecurityreservetoensuregenerationadequacyinthefollowingmonths.Theywillshowwhichenergycarrierisbestsuitedtobringtheenergytransitionforwardunderthenewgeopoliticalcircumstances.

HydrogenshouldfacilitateGermanyandtheEUtoachievetheir2045and2050climateneutralitytargets.Newpoliciesareunderdiscussiontotacklefurtherchallengesarisingfromthephase-outofconventionalpowergeneration,aimingatanenhanceduseofflexibilityprovidedbyelectricitystorageanddemandside

5

managementonthedistributionlevel.Mostpolicyscenariosattributeanimportantroletohydrogen-basedpowergenerationbeginningintheearly2030s.

Germanyhasmanagedtoachieveenergysecurityintransitingawayfromfossil-basedenergy.Althoughthe

wholesaleelectricitypriceinGermanyincreasedconsiderably,especiallyduringcurrentwarinUkraine,thepublicsupportandfaithforGermanenergytransitionhasneverchanged.AndtoacceleratedenergytransitionandrenewableenergydevelopmenthasevenbecomethesolutionforGermanytoachievesupplysecurity.

6

2Germanenergytransition—policies,legislation,costdevelopmentandenvironmentalimpact

TheGermanenergytransitionsetsouttoshifttheentireenergysystemawayfromfossilandnuclearfuelstoclimateneutralenergycarrierswithinonegeneration.Intheelectricitysector,Germanymetandsurpassedits2020targetsforrenewableenergy,andin2021renewablesprovided45%ofthecountry’selectricity.Highelectricitypricesforindustriesandhouseholdsremainaconcern,despiterenewablescontributingtoreducedwholesalepricesinpowermarkets.RecentpricespikesareduetothehighpriceforgasduetoshortagesrelatedtotheongoingwarinUkraine.

2.1Germanclimatepolicy—the

foundationforenergysecurity

Germanenergyandclimatepolicy

TheGermanFederalGovernment’senergyconceptof2010laidthefoundationsofcurrentGermanenergypolicy.Itwasbuiltuponthreekeyobjectives:securityofsupply,economicefficiency,andenvironmentalprotection.In2011,intheaftermathoftheFukushimanucleardisasterandbasedontheGermanFederalGovernment’senergyconcept,theFederalGovernmentproclaimedtheenergytransition(Energiewende),Ittargetsatthephase-outofnuclearenergy,coal,andeventuallyallfossilfuelsthroughimprovingenergyefficiency,developingrenewableenergy,andsectorcoupling,supportedbydigitisationandinnovation.

AsetofpoliciesandregulationswerereleasedtosupportGermanenergytransition.In2016theGermangovernmentadoptedtheClimatePlan2050.Thislong-termstrategyintegratesallexistingtargetsandprinciplesofthenationalclimatepolicyanddescribesthepathwaytoalargelygreenhousegas-neutralGermanybytheyear2050.Itcreatedseparatetargetsforthedifferenteconomicsectorsandintroducesintermediatereduction

targets(55%greenhousegas(GHG)emissionsreductionuntil2030).In2019,theGermangovernmentadoptedtheClimateChangeAct,whichsetaclearandbindingpathtowardclimateneutralityby2050.1Overthefollowingyears,theGermangovernmentandtheresponsibleauthorityrevisedtheclimatechangeactinlightofmoreambitiousEuropeanclimatetargetsandfollowingadecisionbyGermany’shighestcourtdeemingpreviousclimateactioninsufficient.Sinceitsrevisionin2021,thelawhastheobjectiveofclimateneutralityby2045,makingGermanyoneoffewcountriesintheworldtohaveclimateneutralitybymid-centuryenshrinedinnationallaw.

Thefirstmonitoringreportontheprogressoftheenergytransitiondevelopedatargetarchitecturestructuringandprioritisingthesedifferentgoals.2ThecoreobjectivesdescribetheoverarchingpolicygoalssuchastheclimatetargetsofreducingGHGemissions,thecoalphase-outaswellasstrategictargetslikeincreasingtheshareofrenewableenergyinenergyconsumption.Thensteeringtargetselaboratethecoreobjectivesbyspecifyingtargetsindifferentsectors.Differentmeasures,basedoncriterialikecost-efficiencyandsystemintegration,contributetothosetargets.Thesemeasuresshouldbealignedsothatthecoreobjectives(climatetargets)canbeachievedinthemostreliableandcost-effectiveway.

7

Figure1:DevelopmentofGermanClimateTargets

ClimatetargetsintheEUandGermanytoday

TheamendedClimateChangeActsetsemissionsreductionsinlinewithambitiousEuropeanclimatepolicies.WiththeEuropeanGreenDeal,theEUcreatedalegislativeframeworkthatsupportsthegoalsoftheParisAgreement.TheEUdecidedtoraiseits2030emissionreductiontargetto-55%andaimforclimateneutralityby2050.ThisrequiresasetofmeasurestheEUdecidedtoincludeintheFitfor55package.3

InGermany,theadoptedClimateChangeActof2021callsforemissionsreductionof65%by2030comparedto1990andclimateneutralityin2045.Itsetsambitioustargetsfortheelectricitysector,thebuildings,transport,industrysectoraswellasforagricultureandtheLULUCFsector(land-use,land-usechangeandforestry).ThenewGermangoverningcoalitionstrengthenedsomeofthesetargetsoncemore.Achievingthesegoalsrequiresasetofmeasuresandpolicies.

OverviewofGermanenergylegislation

ThegovernmentandrelevantministriesimplementtheGermanenergytransitionthroughdifferentlawsand

instruments.AsanEUmemberstate,theframeworkofEUclimatepoliciessignificantlyshapesGermany’sclimatepolicy.

?ThepowerandsomeindustrysectorsarepartoftheEUEmissionsTradingSystem(ETS)

?Non-ETSemissionsintransportandheatingaresubjecttotheEffortSharingRegulation(ESR)

?TheimplementationoftheEuropeanGreenDealwiththecomprehensiveFitfor55packagewilllikelyaddressthedesignoftheETSandESR,withtheESRtransitioningintoatradingsystem.4

OtherimportantEUpolicyinstrumentsinfluencingthenationalpolicyare:

?RenewableEnergyDirective(REDII)asthelegalframeworkforthedevelopmentofrenewableenergyacrossallsectorsoftheEUeconomy,currentlyinrevision

?EnergyEfficiencyDirectivepromotesenergyefficiencyasanoverallprincipleofEUenergypolicyandsetsrulesandobligationsforachievingtheEU’s2020and2030energyefficiencytargets.

8

?InternalElectricityMarketDirectivestrengthenstherightsofconsumersandtheirparticipationintheelectricitymarketinEurope.

?ElectricityMarketRegulationstipulatestheopeningof70%interconnectorsforcross-bordertrade.

Onthenationallevel,differentlawsanddirectivescomplementtheenergyconceptasthebasisfornationalenergypolicy.

TheEnergyIndustryAct(Energiewirtschaftsgesetz—EnWG)—forthefirsttimeenactedin1935—definestheframeworknecessaryforasecure,affordable,consumer-friendly,andenvironmentallyfriendlysupplyofelectricityandnaturalgas.Itregulatestheelectricityandgassupplynetworkstoensureeffectiveandundistortedcompetitionandaimstointensifycooperation,particularlywithGermany’sneighbouringstates.Atthesametime,itimplementsEuropeanUnionlawinthefieldofnetwork-basedenergysupply.5Inparticular,inaseriesoffundamentalchangesfrom1998onwarditimplementedtheliberalisationoftheelectricityandgasmarket.Toachieveitsobjectives,theEnergyIndustryActusesvariousmeasures,particularlyrestrictionsontheexchangeofcostinformationbetweengeneratorstoavoidcollusion,licensingandnotificationrequirements,ownershipunbundling,andtheinterventionrightsoftheFederalNetworkAgency.

Forhydrogennetworks,policymakersarestilldevelopingtheregulation,sinceGermanycurrentlyhasnodedicatedhydrogennetworks.ThegovernmentwillalsohavetoharmonisethenationalhydrogenregulationwithEuropeanregulation.

TheRenewableEnergySourcesAct(ErneuerbareEnergienGesetz—EEG),introducedin2001,promotestheuseofrenewableenergyintheelectricitysector.Itincludesprovisionsforthefinancialsupportofthesesources,theirpreferentialfeed-inintothepowergrid,

andsetscleartargetsforthedevelopmentandexpansion.TheEEGisthesuccessoroftheElectricityFeed-InActof1991andissubjecttoregularrevision.Followingthecurrentcoalitionagreement,thenewGermangovernmenthasintroducednewpoliciestoaddresschallengesandspeed-upthedevelopmentofrenewableenergy.TheEasterPackageisaSpring2022setofamendmentstotheRenewableEnergySourcesAct(EEG)andotherpolicies.Thepackagerepresentsamajorefforttoachievean80%targetofrenewablepowergenerationby2030.

TheOffshoreWindEnergyAct—enactedtoexpandoffshorewindenergy—governsthelegalframeworkforGermanoffshorewindparks,particularlyastheyrelatetonatureconservation,shipping,andoffshoreconnectionlines.TheGermanlegislativepassedanamendmenttotheactinJuly2022.Itaimstoincreaseoffshorewindturbines’installedcapacityfrom8GWintheyear2021toatotalof30GWbytheyear2030and70GWbytheyear2040.Italmostdoubledthepreviousambitionforoffshorecapacityby2045.6Theactalignstheexpansionofoffshorewindturbinesandtheexpansionofoffshoregridconnectorsrequiredtotransmitthegeneratedelectricity.

2.2Prominentroleofrenewableenergy

inGermany’senergymix

TheGermanenergysystemisundergoingamassivechange,andby2045,Germanywillachieveclimateneutralityfortheentireenergysystem.PrimaryenergyconsumptioninGermanyhasincreasedby2.6%andhasreached12,265PJ,or3407TWh,in2021buthasremainedbelowpre-pandemiclevels.Fossilfuelsmadeupapproximately80%ofprimaryenergyconsumptionin2021:oilaccountedfor32%,naturalgasfor27%,coalfor

18%,nuclearenergyfor6%,andrenewableenergyfor

16%(see

Figure2)

.7

9

Figure2:PrimaryEnergyConsumptioninGermany2021

Theelectricitysectorhasundergonethelargestchange,andtheshareofrenewablesreached45%ofelectricityconsumedin2021.Variablewindandsolarmetroughlyone-thirdofelectricityconsumptionin2021.Inthefirsthalfof2022,renewablessurpasseda50%share.

Windandsolarenergywerethemaindriversofthisshift.In2021,windprovided24%ofelectricityconsumption

andsolar9%.8ScalinguptheseenergysourcesinitiallydependedonthepriceguaranteesprovidedbytheRenewableEnergySourcesAct(EEG).TheEEGandotherpolicieshelpedbringdowncostsandmakethesetechnologiescompetitivearoundtheworld.Germany’sdecisiontostepupitsclimateambitionwillrelyonacceleratingthegrowthofrenewableenergycapacityandoutput.

Figure3:ShareofRenewableEnergyinTotalEnergyConsumptionuntil2021

10

Renewableenergyinothersectorscannotyetcontributesignificantlytoclimateprotectionandemissionreduction(seesection

2.4

below).TheREshareinprimaryenergyconsumptionislowerthanintheelectricitysector.Goingforward,electricityandrenewableenergywilltakeamore

prominentroleintheprimaryenergyconsumptionduetoasignificantuptakeofelectricvehicles,heatpumps,andtheelectrificationofindustrialprocesses.

2.3Affordabilityofenergy

Germanelectricitypricesforconsumersandindustrieshaveincreasedsince2008,mainlyduetovariousfees,surcharges,andtaxes.Inadditiontoprovokingcriticismofrenewableenergyadoptionamongsomeusers,thesefeeshaveslowedtheelectrificationofend-usesectors,andthereforeprolongedGermany’srelianceongas—withimplicationsforenergysecurity.

Renewableenergylowerswholesaleelectricityprices

WhendiscussinghighelectricitypricesinGermany,onehastodifferentiatebetweenwholesaleprices,energypricesforhouseholds,andindustrialconsumers.Integratingrenewablesintotheenergysystemhasgenerallyledtoasteadyfallinwholesalepricesforelectricityduetothelowervariablecostsofrenewables.

Marginalpricesofwindandsolarareclosetoorzero.ThewholesalemarketpricesdonotreflectthemarketintegrationcostsofRE,suchasbalancingcostsorredispatchcosts.

Figure4

depictsthedecreaseinwholesalepricesuntilrecentlywhendevelopmentstooka

turnandpricesstartedtorise.Priorto2021,highercarbonpricesofEUETSexplaintheslightincreaseinelectricityprices.

Figure4:Monthlyaverageday-aheadwholesaleelectricityprice,€/MWh,2010-20229

GermanyattimeshadthelowestdayaheadpricesinEurope,withlessthan€40/MWh.Inadditiontothetrendoflowerwholesaleprices,theintegrationofhighsharesorvariableREdidalsoleadtoincreasingnumberofnegativepricesontheGermanday-aheadmarket.Negativepricesusuallyappearattimesofhighproductionfromrenewablesincombinationwithlowdemand.Negativepriceswilllikelybecomemorefrequentasmorewindandsolarenterthesystem.

Whilenegativepricesthreatentheprofitabilityorfinancialviabilityofrenewablesourcesandcouldtheoreticallyreduceinvestmentintheseurgentlyneedresources,negativepricesalsoincentivizeinvestmentinandoperationofdemand-responseandefficientenergystorage,ultimatelyhelpingalleviateoreliminatenegativepriceperiods.

Itisimportanttonotethatthetrendtowardslowerpricesreflectsthesituationbefore2022.Thecurrentenergy

11

crisisandhighelectricitypricesbreakwiththetrend,forreasonsdescribedbelow.2021and2022haveseenfewerinstancesofnegativeprices.

Wholesalegaspricesremainedatasteadyandlowlevelinrecentyears,withlowaveragespotpricesof€13.79/MWhin2020,beforetakingupin2021and2022.10Recently,gaspriceshavespikedduetothegassupplycrisisfollowingRussia’swaragainstUkraine.

Risinghouseholdelectricitypricesduetofeesandsurcharges

Evenaswholesalepricesdeclined,otherpricecomponentshaveincreasedsignificantly,especiallyfeesandtaxes.Theseincludefeesforusingtheelectricitygridaswellasstate-imposedpricecomponents,suchastaxesandtheEEGsurcharge.11TheFederalNetworkAgencyregulatestheelectricitygridfees.Gridfeesvaryacrossregionsbutmakeupashareofaround25%ofthe

electricitypriceforprivatehouseholds.Intotal,around50%oftheelectricitypriceresultsfromtaxes,levies,andsurcharges.12SincethebeginningoftheliberalisationoftheEuropeanpowermarketin1998,theshareoftaxes,leviesandsurchargeshadincreasedby250%,13reflectingthecostofrenewableenergysupport,otherclimatepolicymeasuresandanincreaseingridfees.InJuly2022,thegovernmentabolishedtheEEGsurchargetoreducehouseholdandcommercialelectricitypricesandpromoteelectrificationofappliancesandtransport.

ElectricitypricesforprivatehouseholdsinGermanyhaveincreasedmainlyduetopolicyrelatedpricecomponents,whichmorethancompensatedforthedropinwholesaleprices.

Figure5

depictsthedevelopmentofelectricity

pricesforprivatehouseholds.Withanaverageof€0.32/kWhin2021,theyarethehighestwithintheEU.14Salestaxes,electricitytaxes,surchargesfortheCHPandrenewables,andotherfeesmakeupalmosthalfoftheelectricityprice.

Figure5:AverageGermanhouseholdelectricityprice

Totalhouseholdenergycostsincludebothelectricityandheating,whichissuppliedmainlybygas,butalsobyoilanddistrictheating.TheshareofenergyexpendituresforGermanhouseholdsisinthelowerthirdcomparedwithotherEUcountries.

Gaspricesincludethepriceforgasacquisitionandmarketing,gridfees,andtaxes.Since2021,anationalcarbonpriceappliestotheprovisioningofgasandother

fossilfuelsforheatingpurposesandtransport.15Gaspricesstayedsteadyinrecentyears,withaslowdeclinethrough2020.Thedevelopmenttookasharpturnin2021and2022whenpricesspiked.

Lowerenergycostsforindustryversushouseholds

Forindustrialenergyconsumers,someofthegovernmentinducedpricecomponentsandgridfeesvary

12

significantlyinrelationshiptotheamountofelectricityconsumed.

Industrialconsumershavesignificantlylowertaxexpendituresthanprivatehouseholds,asdifferentexemptionsalleviatetheeconomicpressuretoensureinternationalcompetitiveness.Thelargestindustrialconsumersareexemptedfrommosttaxes,levies,andfees.Theirelectricitypricesarebelow€0.10/kWh.Otherindustrialconsumerspayroughly€0.20/kWh.16Twoprominentexamplesarethefollowing:

?Energy-intensivebusinessesareeligiblefora90%deductionoftheelectricitytax.

?Only15-20%oftheEEGsurchargeisapplicableforthepowerconsumedaboveathresholdof1GWh

Hence,differentindustrialconsumersfacewidelydifferentelectricitypricesduetothedesignofexemptionsandvarioussupportpoliciesfordifferentpricecomponents.

Whencomparingpricesforindus

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