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SecurityofSupplyinthe
GermanElectricitySector
Ashortreviewofchallengesandmeasures
2
Imprint
Thereport“SecurityofsupplyintheGermanelectricitysector-Ashortreviewofchallengesandmeasures”introducesGermanexperiencesinsecuringitsenergysecuritywhentransitioningitsenergysystemtowardsmorerenewables,aimsatsharingvaluablemeasuresandexperienceswithChineseaudiences.ItispublishedintheframeworkoftheSino-GermanEnergyPartnershipbetweentheGermanFederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandClimateAction(BMWK),theNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission(NDRC)andtheNationalEnergyAdministrationofthePeople’sRepublicofChina(NEA).Asthecentraldialogueplatformonenergybetweentwocountries,themainobjectiveofthepartnershipistofosterandadvancethefar-reachingandprofoundenergytransitionsongoinginbothcountriesbyexchangingviews,bestpracticesandknowledgeonthedevelopmentofasustainableenergysystem,primarilycenteredonimprovingenergyefficiencyandexpandingtheuseofrenewableenergy.TheDeutscheGesellschaftfürInternationaleZusammenarbeit(GIZ)GmbHimplementstheprojectundercommissionofBMWK.AsaGermanfederalenterprise,GIZsupportstheGermangovernmentintheachievementofitsgoalsininternationalcooperationforsustainabledevelopment.
Publishedby
Sino-GermanEnergyPartnershipProject
commissionedbytheGermanFederalMinistryfor
EconomicAffairsandClimateAction(BMWK)
TayuanDiplomaticOfficeBuilding1-15,
14LiangmaheSouthStreet,ChaoyangDistrict
100600Beijing,P.R.China
c/o
DeutscheGesellschaftfürInternationale
Zusammenarbeit(GIZ)GmbH
ProjectManagement:
YinYuxia,WangHao
DeutscheGesellschaftfürInternationale
Zusammenarbeit(GIZ)GmbH
Authors:
PascalHader-Weinmann(dena)
Dr.TimMennel(dena)
PercySchulzeBuschhoff(dena)
AndersHove,(GIZ)
Contributors
SimonGoess
Image&Illustrations:
Shutterstock/721369351(封面)
Shutterstock/326698985(Page5)
Shutterstock/454323052(Page32)
AdobeStock/270527054(Page34)
Design
Edelman.ergo(oncommissionofBMWK)
?Beijng,August2022
Thisreportinitsentiretyisprotectedbycopyright.Theinformationcontainedwascompiledtothebestofourknowledgeandbeliefinaccordancewiththeprinciplesofgoodscientificpractice.Theauthorsbelievetheinformationinthisreportiscorrect,completeandcurrent,butacceptnoliabilityforanyerrors,explicitorimplicit.Responsibilityforthecontentofexternalwebsiteslinkedinthispublicationalwayslieswiththeirrespectivepublishers.Thestatementsinthisdocumentdonotnecessarilyreflecttheclient’sopinion.
3
Content
1ExecutiveSummary 4
2Germanenergytransition—policies,legislation,costdevelopmentandenvironmentalimpact 6
2.1Germanclimatepolicy—thefoundationforenergysecurity 6
2.2ProminentroleofrenewableenergyinGermany’senergymix 8
2.3Affordabilityofenergy 10
2.4Sustainabilityandenvironmentalimpactoftheenergysystem 13
3SecurityofsupplyinGermany:pastandpresent 15
3.1Overviewelectricitysystem 17
3.2Electricitysystemreliability—challengesandsolutions 19
3.3Fuelsecurity 25
3.4Politicaldebateongenerationadequacy2012-2022 26
3.5Summary 29
4Ensuringadequacyinthefuture 30
4.1FutureGermanenergysupply 30
4.2Futureelectricitysector 30
4.3Futuregassector 31
5Summaryandhighlights 33
Listoffigures 35
EndNotes 36
4
1ExecutiveSummary
TheGermanenergytransition(‘Energiewende’)setsouttoshifttheentireenergysystemawayfromfossilandnuclearfuelstoclimate-neutralenergycarrierswithinonegeneration.Theseincludeelectricitybasedonrenewableenergy(RE)aswellasgreenhydrogenandhydrogenderivatives.Thetransitionalsoentailsseveralchallengesforsecurityofsupplyandenergyaffordability.Thisreportsummarizesrecentandcurrentmeasurespolicymakershaveundertakentoensuresecurityandimproveaffordability.
UntiltherecentwarinUkraine,theenergysupplysystemprovedtobereliabledespitetheprofoundchangesitunderwent.Germanyhaspursuedanactiveclimatepolicyfortwodecadeswiththepromotionofrenewableenergyatitscore.TheEnergyConceptof2010providedacomprehensiveapproachwithabroadsetoftargets,includinga35%shareofrenewableenergyinelectricitygenerationby2020.AlthoughGermanynarrowlymissedits2020emissionabatementtarget,theexpansionofrenewableenergyisgenerallyconsideredasuccess,withrenewablesreachingashareof45%inelectricitygenerationin2021.TheGermanParliamenthadalsoenactedanuclearandacoalphase-out,withnucleartoretirebytheendof2022andcoalby2038.Sincethisdecision,13of16nuclearplantshaveretiredandmanycoal-firedplantshavebeeneitherdecommissionedormothballed.
TheGermanenergytransitionhassofarproceededwithoutanyimpactonGermany’selectricitysupplysecurity,despitesomeearlierconcerns.Policymakersadoptedadjustedpoliciesandmarketrulestopreparethesystemtobecomereliablewithmorevariablerenewableenergyexpansion.TheGermanpowersystemhasfewoutagesrelativetootheradvancedeconomiesandhassteadilyimproveditsreliabilityperformanceasmeasuredbysecurityofsupplyindicators.
Germanyhasadoptedseveralmeasurestoensure
electricitysupplysecurity:
?ElectricitymarketsinGermanyfeaturehigh-volumesofday-aheadandintradaypowertradingovershorttimeintervals,andwidepricefluctuationshaveincentivisedflexibleoperationofconventional
thermalplantswithoutsubsidiesorcapacitypayments.
?MarketplayerstradeelectricityacrossthecontrolzonesofthefourGermanTSOs.Tradingtakesplaceprimarilyoverthecountry’swell-functioningandliquidelectricitymarkets.
?Furthermore,theintegrationoftheEU’sinternalmarketforelectricityprovidesadditionalsecuritybycross-borderelectricitytradeandflows.
?Inrecentyears,reformspromotenewassetcategorieslikestorageandDSMtoprovidebalancingandotherancillaryservices.
?Thegovernmentandtheregulatorspromotetheexpansionoftransmissionanddistributiongrids,contributingtotheintegrationofnewrenewableenergycapacity,thoughthetransmissionexpansionfacesdelays.Additionally,theTSOshaveincreasedtheuseofredispatchmeasurestomanagenetworkcongestiononthesystemlevel.
?Toupholdgenerationadequacy,thegovernmenthasestablishedareservesystemencompassingacapacity,anetwork,andasecurityreserve.Thereservesconsistofdecommissionedcoalandoil-firedpowerplants.
Asaresponsetophysicalgasshortages,andthenecessitytoprioritizegasstorageforwinterheating,policymakershaveallowedthereactivationofcoal-firedpowergeneratorstoreplacegasturbinestoprovideflexibilityservice.Asof2021,gas-basedgenerationprovidesaround12%ofGermanelectricityconsumption.However,gasturbinesandcombinedcycleplantscontributesignificantlytogenerationadequacyandancillaryservicesduetotheirhighflexibility.Therefore,thecurrentgassupplycrisishasimplicationsforthefutureoftheelectricitysystem.Asoftoday,Germanyhasactivateditsmostlycoal-basedsecurityreservetoensuregenerationadequacyinthefollowingmonths.Theywillshowwhichenergycarrierisbestsuitedtobringtheenergytransitionforwardunderthenewgeopoliticalcircumstances.
HydrogenshouldfacilitateGermanyandtheEUtoachievetheir2045and2050climateneutralitytargets.Newpoliciesareunderdiscussiontotacklefurtherchallengesarisingfromthephase-outofconventionalpowergeneration,aimingatanenhanceduseofflexibilityprovidedbyelectricitystorageanddemandside
5
managementonthedistributionlevel.Mostpolicyscenariosattributeanimportantroletohydrogen-basedpowergenerationbeginningintheearly2030s.
Germanyhasmanagedtoachieveenergysecurityintransitingawayfromfossil-basedenergy.Althoughthe
wholesaleelectricitypriceinGermanyincreasedconsiderably,especiallyduringcurrentwarinUkraine,thepublicsupportandfaithforGermanenergytransitionhasneverchanged.AndtoacceleratedenergytransitionandrenewableenergydevelopmenthasevenbecomethesolutionforGermanytoachievesupplysecurity.
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2Germanenergytransition—policies,legislation,costdevelopmentandenvironmentalimpact
TheGermanenergytransitionsetsouttoshifttheentireenergysystemawayfromfossilandnuclearfuelstoclimateneutralenergycarrierswithinonegeneration.Intheelectricitysector,Germanymetandsurpassedits2020targetsforrenewableenergy,andin2021renewablesprovided45%ofthecountry’selectricity.Highelectricitypricesforindustriesandhouseholdsremainaconcern,despiterenewablescontributingtoreducedwholesalepricesinpowermarkets.RecentpricespikesareduetothehighpriceforgasduetoshortagesrelatedtotheongoingwarinUkraine.
2.1Germanclimatepolicy—the
foundationforenergysecurity
Germanenergyandclimatepolicy
TheGermanFederalGovernment’senergyconceptof2010laidthefoundationsofcurrentGermanenergypolicy.Itwasbuiltuponthreekeyobjectives:securityofsupply,economicefficiency,andenvironmentalprotection.In2011,intheaftermathoftheFukushimanucleardisasterandbasedontheGermanFederalGovernment’senergyconcept,theFederalGovernmentproclaimedtheenergytransition(Energiewende),Ittargetsatthephase-outofnuclearenergy,coal,andeventuallyallfossilfuelsthroughimprovingenergyefficiency,developingrenewableenergy,andsectorcoupling,supportedbydigitisationandinnovation.
AsetofpoliciesandregulationswerereleasedtosupportGermanenergytransition.In2016theGermangovernmentadoptedtheClimatePlan2050.Thislong-termstrategyintegratesallexistingtargetsandprinciplesofthenationalclimatepolicyanddescribesthepathwaytoalargelygreenhousegas-neutralGermanybytheyear2050.Itcreatedseparatetargetsforthedifferenteconomicsectorsandintroducesintermediatereduction
targets(55%greenhousegas(GHG)emissionsreductionuntil2030).In2019,theGermangovernmentadoptedtheClimateChangeAct,whichsetaclearandbindingpathtowardclimateneutralityby2050.1Overthefollowingyears,theGermangovernmentandtheresponsibleauthorityrevisedtheclimatechangeactinlightofmoreambitiousEuropeanclimatetargetsandfollowingadecisionbyGermany’shighestcourtdeemingpreviousclimateactioninsufficient.Sinceitsrevisionin2021,thelawhastheobjectiveofclimateneutralityby2045,makingGermanyoneoffewcountriesintheworldtohaveclimateneutralitybymid-centuryenshrinedinnationallaw.
Thefirstmonitoringreportontheprogressoftheenergytransitiondevelopedatargetarchitecturestructuringandprioritisingthesedifferentgoals.2ThecoreobjectivesdescribetheoverarchingpolicygoalssuchastheclimatetargetsofreducingGHGemissions,thecoalphase-outaswellasstrategictargetslikeincreasingtheshareofrenewableenergyinenergyconsumption.Thensteeringtargetselaboratethecoreobjectivesbyspecifyingtargetsindifferentsectors.Differentmeasures,basedoncriterialikecost-efficiencyandsystemintegration,contributetothosetargets.Thesemeasuresshouldbealignedsothatthecoreobjectives(climatetargets)canbeachievedinthemostreliableandcost-effectiveway.
7
Figure1:DevelopmentofGermanClimateTargets
ClimatetargetsintheEUandGermanytoday
TheamendedClimateChangeActsetsemissionsreductionsinlinewithambitiousEuropeanclimatepolicies.WiththeEuropeanGreenDeal,theEUcreatedalegislativeframeworkthatsupportsthegoalsoftheParisAgreement.TheEUdecidedtoraiseits2030emissionreductiontargetto-55%andaimforclimateneutralityby2050.ThisrequiresasetofmeasurestheEUdecidedtoincludeintheFitfor55package.3
InGermany,theadoptedClimateChangeActof2021callsforemissionsreductionof65%by2030comparedto1990andclimateneutralityin2045.Itsetsambitioustargetsfortheelectricitysector,thebuildings,transport,industrysectoraswellasforagricultureandtheLULUCFsector(land-use,land-usechangeandforestry).ThenewGermangoverningcoalitionstrengthenedsomeofthesetargetsoncemore.Achievingthesegoalsrequiresasetofmeasuresandpolicies.
OverviewofGermanenergylegislation
ThegovernmentandrelevantministriesimplementtheGermanenergytransitionthroughdifferentlawsand
instruments.AsanEUmemberstate,theframeworkofEUclimatepoliciessignificantlyshapesGermany’sclimatepolicy.
?ThepowerandsomeindustrysectorsarepartoftheEUEmissionsTradingSystem(ETS)
?Non-ETSemissionsintransportandheatingaresubjecttotheEffortSharingRegulation(ESR)
?TheimplementationoftheEuropeanGreenDealwiththecomprehensiveFitfor55packagewilllikelyaddressthedesignoftheETSandESR,withtheESRtransitioningintoatradingsystem.4
OtherimportantEUpolicyinstrumentsinfluencingthenationalpolicyare:
?RenewableEnergyDirective(REDII)asthelegalframeworkforthedevelopmentofrenewableenergyacrossallsectorsoftheEUeconomy,currentlyinrevision
?EnergyEfficiencyDirectivepromotesenergyefficiencyasanoverallprincipleofEUenergypolicyandsetsrulesandobligationsforachievingtheEU’s2020and2030energyefficiencytargets.
8
?InternalElectricityMarketDirectivestrengthenstherightsofconsumersandtheirparticipationintheelectricitymarketinEurope.
?ElectricityMarketRegulationstipulatestheopeningof70%interconnectorsforcross-bordertrade.
Onthenationallevel,differentlawsanddirectivescomplementtheenergyconceptasthebasisfornationalenergypolicy.
TheEnergyIndustryAct(Energiewirtschaftsgesetz—EnWG)—forthefirsttimeenactedin1935—definestheframeworknecessaryforasecure,affordable,consumer-friendly,andenvironmentallyfriendlysupplyofelectricityandnaturalgas.Itregulatestheelectricityandgassupplynetworkstoensureeffectiveandundistortedcompetitionandaimstointensifycooperation,particularlywithGermany’sneighbouringstates.Atthesametime,itimplementsEuropeanUnionlawinthefieldofnetwork-basedenergysupply.5Inparticular,inaseriesoffundamentalchangesfrom1998onwarditimplementedtheliberalisationoftheelectricityandgasmarket.Toachieveitsobjectives,theEnergyIndustryActusesvariousmeasures,particularlyrestrictionsontheexchangeofcostinformationbetweengeneratorstoavoidcollusion,licensingandnotificationrequirements,ownershipunbundling,andtheinterventionrightsoftheFederalNetworkAgency.
Forhydrogennetworks,policymakersarestilldevelopingtheregulation,sinceGermanycurrentlyhasnodedicatedhydrogennetworks.ThegovernmentwillalsohavetoharmonisethenationalhydrogenregulationwithEuropeanregulation.
TheRenewableEnergySourcesAct(ErneuerbareEnergienGesetz—EEG),introducedin2001,promotestheuseofrenewableenergyintheelectricitysector.Itincludesprovisionsforthefinancialsupportofthesesources,theirpreferentialfeed-inintothepowergrid,
andsetscleartargetsforthedevelopmentandexpansion.TheEEGisthesuccessoroftheElectricityFeed-InActof1991andissubjecttoregularrevision.Followingthecurrentcoalitionagreement,thenewGermangovernmenthasintroducednewpoliciestoaddresschallengesandspeed-upthedevelopmentofrenewableenergy.TheEasterPackageisaSpring2022setofamendmentstotheRenewableEnergySourcesAct(EEG)andotherpolicies.Thepackagerepresentsamajorefforttoachievean80%targetofrenewablepowergenerationby2030.
TheOffshoreWindEnergyAct—enactedtoexpandoffshorewindenergy—governsthelegalframeworkforGermanoffshorewindparks,particularlyastheyrelatetonatureconservation,shipping,andoffshoreconnectionlines.TheGermanlegislativepassedanamendmenttotheactinJuly2022.Itaimstoincreaseoffshorewindturbines’installedcapacityfrom8GWintheyear2021toatotalof30GWbytheyear2030and70GWbytheyear2040.Italmostdoubledthepreviousambitionforoffshorecapacityby2045.6Theactalignstheexpansionofoffshorewindturbinesandtheexpansionofoffshoregridconnectorsrequiredtotransmitthegeneratedelectricity.
2.2Prominentroleofrenewableenergy
inGermany’senergymix
TheGermanenergysystemisundergoingamassivechange,andby2045,Germanywillachieveclimateneutralityfortheentireenergysystem.PrimaryenergyconsumptioninGermanyhasincreasedby2.6%andhasreached12,265PJ,or3407TWh,in2021buthasremainedbelowpre-pandemiclevels.Fossilfuelsmadeupapproximately80%ofprimaryenergyconsumptionin2021:oilaccountedfor32%,naturalgasfor27%,coalfor
18%,nuclearenergyfor6%,andrenewableenergyfor
16%(see
Figure2)
.7
9
Figure2:PrimaryEnergyConsumptioninGermany2021
Theelectricitysectorhasundergonethelargestchange,andtheshareofrenewablesreached45%ofelectricityconsumedin2021.Variablewindandsolarmetroughlyone-thirdofelectricityconsumptionin2021.Inthefirsthalfof2022,renewablessurpasseda50%share.
Windandsolarenergywerethemaindriversofthisshift.In2021,windprovided24%ofelectricityconsumption
andsolar9%.8ScalinguptheseenergysourcesinitiallydependedonthepriceguaranteesprovidedbytheRenewableEnergySourcesAct(EEG).TheEEGandotherpolicieshelpedbringdowncostsandmakethesetechnologiescompetitivearoundtheworld.Germany’sdecisiontostepupitsclimateambitionwillrelyonacceleratingthegrowthofrenewableenergycapacityandoutput.
Figure3:ShareofRenewableEnergyinTotalEnergyConsumptionuntil2021
10
Renewableenergyinothersectorscannotyetcontributesignificantlytoclimateprotectionandemissionreduction(seesection
2.4
below).TheREshareinprimaryenergyconsumptionislowerthanintheelectricitysector.Goingforward,electricityandrenewableenergywilltakeamore
prominentroleintheprimaryenergyconsumptionduetoasignificantuptakeofelectricvehicles,heatpumps,andtheelectrificationofindustrialprocesses.
2.3Affordabilityofenergy
Germanelectricitypricesforconsumersandindustrieshaveincreasedsince2008,mainlyduetovariousfees,surcharges,andtaxes.Inadditiontoprovokingcriticismofrenewableenergyadoptionamongsomeusers,thesefeeshaveslowedtheelectrificationofend-usesectors,andthereforeprolongedGermany’srelianceongas—withimplicationsforenergysecurity.
Renewableenergylowerswholesaleelectricityprices
WhendiscussinghighelectricitypricesinGermany,onehastodifferentiatebetweenwholesaleprices,energypricesforhouseholds,andindustrialconsumers.Integratingrenewablesintotheenergysystemhasgenerallyledtoasteadyfallinwholesalepricesforelectricityduetothelowervariablecostsofrenewables.
Marginalpricesofwindandsolarareclosetoorzero.ThewholesalemarketpricesdonotreflectthemarketintegrationcostsofRE,suchasbalancingcostsorredispatchcosts.
Figure4
depictsthedecreaseinwholesalepricesuntilrecentlywhendevelopmentstooka
turnandpricesstartedtorise.Priorto2021,highercarbonpricesofEUETSexplaintheslightincreaseinelectricityprices.
Figure4:Monthlyaverageday-aheadwholesaleelectricityprice,€/MWh,2010-20229
GermanyattimeshadthelowestdayaheadpricesinEurope,withlessthan€40/MWh.Inadditiontothetrendoflowerwholesaleprices,theintegrationofhighsharesorvariableREdidalsoleadtoincreasingnumberofnegativepricesontheGermanday-aheadmarket.Negativepricesusuallyappearattimesofhighproductionfromrenewablesincombinationwithlowdemand.Negativepriceswilllikelybecomemorefrequentasmorewindandsolarenterthesystem.
Whilenegativepricesthreatentheprofitabilityorfinancialviabilityofrenewablesourcesandcouldtheoreticallyreduceinvestmentintheseurgentlyneedresources,negativepricesalsoincentivizeinvestmentinandoperationofdemand-responseandefficientenergystorage,ultimatelyhelpingalleviateoreliminatenegativepriceperiods.
Itisimportanttonotethatthetrendtowardslowerpricesreflectsthesituationbefore2022.Thecurrentenergy
11
crisisandhighelectricitypricesbreakwiththetrend,forreasonsdescribedbelow.2021and2022haveseenfewerinstancesofnegativeprices.
Wholesalegaspricesremainedatasteadyandlowlevelinrecentyears,withlowaveragespotpricesof€13.79/MWhin2020,beforetakingupin2021and2022.10Recently,gaspriceshavespikedduetothegassupplycrisisfollowingRussia’swaragainstUkraine.
Risinghouseholdelectricitypricesduetofeesandsurcharges
Evenaswholesalepricesdeclined,otherpricecomponentshaveincreasedsignificantly,especiallyfeesandtaxes.Theseincludefeesforusingtheelectricitygridaswellasstate-imposedpricecomponents,suchastaxesandtheEEGsurcharge.11TheFederalNetworkAgencyregulatestheelectricitygridfees.Gridfeesvaryacrossregionsbutmakeupashareofaround25%ofthe
electricitypriceforprivatehouseholds.Intotal,around50%oftheelectricitypriceresultsfromtaxes,levies,andsurcharges.12SincethebeginningoftheliberalisationoftheEuropeanpowermarketin1998,theshareoftaxes,leviesandsurchargeshadincreasedby250%,13reflectingthecostofrenewableenergysupport,otherclimatepolicymeasuresandanincreaseingridfees.InJuly2022,thegovernmentabolishedtheEEGsurchargetoreducehouseholdandcommercialelectricitypricesandpromoteelectrificationofappliancesandtransport.
ElectricitypricesforprivatehouseholdsinGermanyhaveincreasedmainlyduetopolicyrelatedpricecomponents,whichmorethancompensatedforthedropinwholesaleprices.
Figure5
depictsthedevelopmentofelectricity
pricesforprivatehouseholds.Withanaverageof€0.32/kWhin2021,theyarethehighestwithintheEU.14Salestaxes,electricitytaxes,surchargesfortheCHPandrenewables,andotherfeesmakeupalmosthalfoftheelectricityprice.
Figure5:AverageGermanhouseholdelectricityprice
Totalhouseholdenergycostsincludebothelectricityandheating,whichissuppliedmainlybygas,butalsobyoilanddistrictheating.TheshareofenergyexpendituresforGermanhouseholdsisinthelowerthirdcomparedwithotherEUcountries.
Gaspricesincludethepriceforgasacquisitionandmarketing,gridfees,andtaxes.Since2021,anationalcarbonpriceappliestotheprovisioningofgasandother
fossilfuelsforheatingpurposesandtransport.15Gaspricesstayedsteadyinrecentyears,withaslowdeclinethrough2020.Thedevelopmenttookasharpturnin2021and2022whenpricesspiked.
Lowerenergycostsforindustryversushouseholds
Forindustrialenergyconsumers,someofthegovernmentinducedpricecomponentsandgridfeesvary
12
significantlyinrelationshiptotheamountofelectricityconsumed.
Industrialconsumershavesignificantlylowertaxexpendituresthanprivatehouseholds,asdifferentexemptionsalleviatetheeconomicpressuretoensureinternationalcompetitiveness.Thelargestindustrialconsumersareexemptedfrommosttaxes,levies,andfees.Theirelectricitypricesarebelow€0.10/kWh.Otherindustrialconsumerspayroughly€0.20/kWh.16Twoprominentexamplesarethefollowing:
?Energy-intensivebusinessesareeligiblefora90%deductionoftheelectricitytax.
?Only15-20%oftheEEGsurchargeisapplicableforthepowerconsumedaboveathresholdof1GWh
Hence,differentindustrialconsumersfacewidelydifferentelectricitypricesduetothedesignofexemptionsandvarioussupportpoliciesfordifferentpricecomponents.
Whencomparingpricesforindus
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