IMF-高加索和中亞金融包容性差距剖析（英）

TheAnatomyoftheFinancialInclusionGap

intheCaucasusandCentralAsiaTigranPoghosyanWP/23/109IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressby

theauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.Theviewsexpressed

inIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddo

notnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutive

Board,orIMFmanagement.2023MAY?2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/23/109IMFWorkingPaperMiddleEastandCentralAsia

DepartmentTheAnatomy

oftheFinancialInclusionGapin

theCaucasusandCentralAsiaPreparedbyTigranPoghosyanAuthorizedfordistributionby

NicolasBlancherMay2023IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressby

theauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

or

IMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Thispaperanalyseshowfinancialinclusion

intheCaucasusandCentralAsia

(CCA)comparestopeersinCentralandEasternEurope(CEE).Usingindividual-levelsurveydata,

it

showsthattheprobability

ofbeingfinanciallyincluded,asproxiedbyaccountownershipinfinancialinstitutions,

issubstantiallyloweracrossgender,incomegroups,and

educationlevelsinallCCAcountriesrelativetoCEEcomparators.Keydeterminantsofthisfinancialinclusion

gaparelowerfinancialandhumandevelopmentindices,weakruleoflaw,andphysicalaccessto

bankbranchesor

ATMs.Thissuggeststhattargetedpoliciesaimedat

boostingfinancialandhumandevelopment,strengtheningtheruleoflaw,andsupportingfintechsolutionscanbroadenfinancialinclusionintheCCA.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Poghosyan,Tigran.2023.“TheAnatomyoftheFinancial

InclusionGapintheCaucasusandCentralAsia.”IMFWorkingPaper23/109.JELClassificationNumbers:Keywords:D14,G21,G28CaucasusandCentralAsia;

financial

inclusion;financialaccessTPoghosyan@Author’sE-MailAddress:*I

wouldliketo

thankOmer

Bayar,

NicolasBlancher,NikolozGigineishvili,MaiHakamada,JiriJonas

and

participantsin

aseminarat

theMiddleEast

andCentralAsiaDepartment

forhelpfulcomments

andsuggestions.SvetlanaZolotarevaprovidedexcellent

productionassistance.The

usualdisclaimerapplies.IMFWORKINGPAPERSTheAnatomyoftheFinancialInclusionGapintheCaucasusandCentralAsiaWORKINGPAPERSThe

Anatomyofthe

FinancialInclusionGap

in

theCaucasusandCentralAsiaPreparedbyTigranPoghosyanINTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND3IMFWORKINGPAPERSTheAnatomyoftheFinancialInclusionGapinthe

CaucasusandCentralAsiaContentsI.Introduction

........................................................................................................................................................5II.FinancialInclusionintheCCA:StylizedFacts

............................................................................................5A.

TheWorldBank’sGlobalFindex

database..............................................................................................5B.

Financialinclusion

intheCCAandcomparators

.....................................................................................6C.

Financialinclusionandcountry-specificcharacteristics

..........................................................................7III.FinancialInclusionandIndividualCharacteristics:

EmpiricalAnalysis

..................................................8A.

EmpiricalSpecification.............................................................................................................................8B.

EstimationResults

...................................................................................................................................9IV.Determinantsofthe

FinancialInclusionGapinthe

CCA

..........................................................................9A.

EmpiricalSpecification.............................................................................................................................9B.

EstimationResults

.................................................................................................................................10V.CanDigitalTechnology

HelpEnhanceFinancialInclusionintheCCA?................................................10VI.Conclusions

.................................................................................................................................................11References.........................................................................................................................................................33FIGURESFigure1.CCA:Financialinclusionovertime

......................................................................................................13Figure2.Financialinclusion

aroundtheworld....................................................................................................14Figure3.Financialinclusion

acrosscountryincomegroups...............................................................................15Figure4.Financialinclusion

andfinancialdevelopmentindex

...........................................................................16Figure5.Financialinclusion

andhumandevelopmentindex.............................................................................17Figure6.Financialinclusion

andincomeinequality............................................................................................18Figure7.Financialinclusion

andtheruleoflaw

.................................................................................................19Figure8.Financialinclusion

andinflationvolatility

.............................................................................................20Figure9.Financialinclusion

andbankinefficiency.............................................................................................21Figure10.Financialinclusionandbankconcentration

.......................................................................................22Figure11.Financialinclusionandbankbranches..............................................................................................23Figure12.FinancialinclusionandATMs

............................................................................................................24Figure13.Predictedprobabilityofbeingfinanciallyincluded(women)..............................................................25Figure14.Predictedprobabilityofbeingfinanciallyincluded(incomegroup)

....................................................26Figure15.Predictedprobabilityofbeingfinanciallyincluded(education)..........................................................27Figure16.Predictedprobabilityofbeingfinanciallyincluded(overtime)

...........................................................28Figure17.Decompositionof

thefinancialinclusiongapbetweentheCCAandCEEcomparators

...................29Figure18.CCA:Mobileaccountownershipandusefordigitaltransactions......................................................30TABLESTable1.Estimationresults:Financialinclusionandindividualcharacteristics...................................................31Table2.Estimationresults:

Financialinclusiongapanditsdeterminants..........................................................32INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND4IMFWORKINGPAPERSTheAnatomyoftheFinancialInclusionGapinthe

CaucasusandCentralAsiaI.

IntroductionTheCaucasusandCentralAsia(CCA)countries

havestrivedtobroadenaccess

tofinanceoverthelastthreedecadesfollowingtheirindependenceintheearly1990s.

Financialinclusion,broadlydefinedas

theabilityofeconomicagentstouse

financialservices,is

increasinglyrecognizedascrucialfor

economicdevelopmentandpovertyreduction(Sahayandothers,2015a;SahayandCihak,2020).1

Inparticular,accesstofinancialservicesallowseconomicagentsto

moveawayfromshort-termdecisionmakingtointer-temporalallocationofresources.Thisencouragessavings,reducesrelianceonself-financing,improvesincentivesforproductiveinvestments,andexpandsmarketsforgoodsandservices

(Rojas-Suarez,2014).Whiletheimportanceoffinancialinclusion

iswidelyrecognized,

it

isperceivedasinsufficient

andconstraininginvestmentactivity

andconsumptionintheCCA.2

AccordingtotheWorldBank’s

Global

Findexdatabase,theshareofadultshavinganaccountwitha

financialintermediary

in2021rangesbetween39.5percentinTajikistanand81.1percentinKazakhstan,whichisrelativelylowcomparedto

over95percentinhigh-incomecountriesand88.4percentaverageinthecomparatorCentralandEasternEuropean(CEE)countries.3Thispaperprovides

empiricalevidence

onfinancialinclusionintheCCAandcomparesitwithCEE

peers.Usingindividual-levelsurveydata,itshowsthattheprobabilityofbeingfinanciallyincluded,asproxiedbyaccountownershipinfinancialinstitutions,

issubstantiallyloweracrossgender,incomegroups,andeducationlevelsinallCCAcountriescomparedtoCEE

peers.Country-leveldataarethenusedtoexplorethedeterminantsofthisfinancialinclusion

gapintheCCA.Theanalysisshowsthatlowerfinancialandhumandevelopmentindices,weakruleoflaw,andlowergeographicaloutreach

(proxiedbythe

numberofATMsperadult)inCCAcountriescomparedtoCEEpeersarethe

mainfactorsassociatedwiththefinancialinclusiongap.Thissuggeststhattargetedpoliciesaimedatboostingfinancialandhumandevelopment,strengtheningtheruleoflaw,andsupportingfintechsolutionscanbroadenfinancialinclusion

intheCCA.Theremainderofthepaperis

structuredasfollows.SectionIIpresentsstylizedfactson

financial

inclusionintheCCAandbenchmarksit

against

comparatorCEEcountriesandothergroupsofcountries.SectionIIIprovidesempiricalevidence

onthe

probabilityofbeingfinanciallyincludeddepending

onindividualcharacteristics.SectionIVprovidesempiricalevidenceon

determinantsoffinancialinclusiongapintheCCArelativetoCEEcomparators.

SectionVdiscusseshowdigitaltechnologycanhelpenhancefinancialinclusionintheCCA.Thelastsection

concludes.II.

FinancialInclusionintheCCA:StylizedFactsA.

TheWorldBank’s

GlobalFindexdatabaseSince2011,theWorldBank

incooperationwithGalluphasconductedindividual-levelsurveysonthewaysinwhichadultsaroundtheworldusefinancialservices,from

paymentsto

savingsandborrowing,andmanage1

Financialinclusionandfinancialaccess

arecloselyrelatedconceptsthatare

oftenusedinterchangeably.In

practice,financialaccessis

thesetofconditionsthatmakesfinancialinclusionpossible.

In

thispaper,

wewill

usetheterm

financialinclusionsinceourfocus

is

on

theownershipof

a

financialaccountbyindividuals.2

Ouranalysisfocuses

onfinancialinclusionofindividuals,whileinvestment

activity

is

alsoinfluencedby

thelackoffinancial

accessbysmall-

andmedium-sizedenterprises.Blancherandothers(2019)

provideacomprehensive

analysisoffinancialinclusion

ofsmall-

andmedium-sizedenterprises

intheMiddleEastandCentralAsia.3

ComparatorCEEcountries

include:

Albania,BosniaandHerzegovina,

Bulgaria,

Croatia,

Czechia,Estonia,

Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Montenegro,

NorthMacedonia,

Poland,

Romania,Serbia,theSlovak

Republic,andSlovenia.INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND5IMFWORKINGPAPERSTheAnatomyoftheFinancialInclusionGapintheCaucasusandCentralAsiafinancialeventssuchasamajorexpenseoralossofincome

(Demirguc-Kuntandothers,2021).Thefirstsurveywasconductedin2011,followed

bysurveysin2014,2017,and2021.Eachsurveycoversaround

1000

nationallyrepresentativerespondents

percountry,withsomeexceptions,andreflectsasnapshotintimebasedonquestionsthatrespondentsanswerabouttheirhabitsand

experiencesofthepreviousyear(Demirguc-KuntandKlapper,2013).Thefirstsetofindicatorsfocusesontheownershipanduseofanaccountataformalfinancialinstitution,suchasmechanicsoftheiruse(frequency,modeofaccess),theirpurpose(receiptofpaymentsfromworkgovernment,orfamily),barrierstotheiruse,andalternativestoformalaccounts(mobilemoney).Themainindicatorreflectingfinancialinclusionisthepercentageofadultswhohaveindividualorjointownershipofaformalaccount,definedasanaccountataformalfinancialinstitutionsuchas

abank,creditunion,cooperative,post

office,ormicrofinanceinstitution.Thesecondsetofindicators

focuseson

savingbehavior.Theconceptofsaving

ismoresubjectivethanthoseofaccountownershipanduse.

Thesurveyfocuseson

thepurposefulactionofsaving,

surveyedbyaskingindividualswhethertheyhave“savedorputasideanymoney”in

thepastyear.Thethirdsetofindicatorsfocusesonborrowing.Thesurveygathersdataonthesourcesofborrowing(formalandinformal),thepurposesofborrowing(mortgage,emergencyorhealthpurposes,andthelike),andtheuseofcreditcards.Finally,the

surveycontainsinformation

onindividualcharacteristics,suchas

theageof

respondents,theirgender,incomelevel

(fivequintiles)andeducation(primary,secondary,andtertiary).Eachrespondentcarriesaweightthatreflects

individual’s

representationatthenationallevel.B.

FinancialinclusionintheCCAandcomparatorsFollowingthepreviousliterature,weuse

thepercentage

ofadultshavingafinancialaccountasaproxyforfinancialinclusion.Figure1presentstheevolutionof

financialinclusion

ineightCCAcountriesovertime

(2011,2014,2017,and2021).Thereisaclearupwarddynamics,withfinancialinclusionexpandingovertimeinallCCAcountries.Wecanalso

observesizeablevariationacrossCCAcountries,withfinancialinclusion

inthelastyearofthesamplerangingbetween

39.5percentinTajikistanand81.1percentinKazakhstan.4Howdoesfinancialinclusion

inthe

CCAcompareatthegloballevel?

Figure2presents

themeasureoffinancialinclusionaroundthe

worldfor2021orthelatestyearforwhichasurveyisavailablefortheparticularcountry.Thecoloringdifferentiates

threegroupsofcountries:CCA

(8countries),CEE(16countries),andothercountries(131countries).Asshowninthechart,financialinclusionvarieswidelyaroundtheworld.Insomecountriesfinancialinclusionreaches100percent,while

inothersitis

insingledigit

levels.

FinancialinclusionintheCCAisonaveragelowercomparedtotheCEEpeers,suggestingthatthere

isagapbetweenthetwocountrygroups.Figure3showsdistributionof

financialinclusionacross

fourcountryincomegroups.

Themedianfinancialinclusionisthehighest

inhighincomecountries,followed

by

uppermiddleincome,

lowermiddleincome,andlow-incomecountries.Inaddition,financialinclusionvarieswithinincomegroups,suggestingthatthereareothercountry-specificfactorsaffectingfinancialinclusion.

Wewillturntothese

country-specificcharacteristicsnext.4

Datais

missingfor

2021inAzerbaijan,

andfor2014and2021inTurkmenistan.INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND6IMFWORKINGPAPERSTheAnatomyoftheFinancialInclusionGapinthe

CaucasusandCentralAsiaC.

Financialinclusionandcountry-specific

characteristicsFollowingRojas-Suarezand

Gonzales(2010),

Rojas-SuarezandAmado(2014)andRojas-Suarez(2016),wepresenttheassociationbetweenfinancialinclusionand

severalcountry-specificconstraintsimpairingfinancialinclusion.5Thefirstfactorisfinancialdevelopment.Theleveloffinancialdevelopment

is

acomplexmeasurethat

canbeproxiedbyamultidimensionalindex,

focusingon

variousaspectsof

financialdevelopment,suchasdebtaccess,andefficiency

offinancialinstitutionsandfinancialmarkets

(Sahayandothers,

2015b;Svirydzenka,2016).Greaterfinancialdevelopmentis

conducivetogreaterfinancialinclusion

andcancontributetohighergrowthintheCCA(Poghosyan,2022).Figure4presents

theassociationbetweenfinancialinclusionandfinancialdevelopment

proxiedbyIMF’smultidimensionalindex.

Asexpected,theassociation

ispositive.

TheleveloffinancialdevelopmentintheCCAlagsthatofCEE

comparators,suggestingthatthisdeterminantmayplayanimportantroleinexplainingthefinancialinclusion

gap.Thesecondfactorissocio-economicdevelopment.Lowlevelsofsocialdevelopment

areoftenassociatedwithlowerdemandforandsupplyoffinancialservices,

sincefinancialexclusionofpeople

is

oftenpartofawidersocialexclusion,which

involves

living

standards,levelofeducation,lifeexpectancy,etc.Figure5presentsthecorrelationbetweenfinancialinclusionandhumandevelopmentindex

developedby

UNDPthatsummarizesthelevelofsocialdevelopmentalongthreedimensions:(i)longandhealthylife(lifeexpectancyatbirth),(ii)knowledge(expectedyears

ofschooling,meanyearsofschooling),and(iii)standardsofliving(GNIpercapitameasuredinPPPUSD).Thefiguredisplaysapositiveassociationbetweenthetwovariables.

ThelevelofhumandevelopmentintheCCA

generallylagsthatthatof

CEEcomparators,suggestingthatthisdeterminantmayhamperfinancialinclusionintheCCA.Anotherproxyforsocio-economicdevelopmentis

incomeinequality.In

countrieswithhighlyskewedincomedistribution,powerfulinterestsarelikelytoblockfinancialsectorreforms

thatcansupportfinancialinclusion.Figure6presentsthecorrelationbetweenfinancialinclusionandincomeinequalityasmeasuredbytheGinicoefficient.As

showninthefigure,thereisanegativeassociationbetweenthetwo

variables.ItisalsointerestingtonotethatthelevelofincomeinequalityintheCCAiscomparable

tothat

ofCEEcomparators,butCEEcomparatorshavelargerlevelofaccountownership.Thethirdfactoristhequalityofinstitutions

conducivetotheusageoffinancialservices.

Weproxythecountry’squalityofinstitutionsbytheindicatoroftheruleoflawfromtheWorldBankGovernanceIndicators,whichmeasuresagents’confidenceinandcommitmenttoabidingbytherulesofsociety,thequalityofcontractenforcement,thepolice,the

courtsandthelikelihoodofcrimeandviolence.Whenlaw

enforcementisstrong,contractsbetweencreditors

anddebtorsareobserved,givingdepositors

incentivesto

entrusttheirsavingstotheformalfinancialsectorandincreasesbankers’willingnesstolendtosmallerand(relatively)riskierborrowers.Figure7presentsthecorrelationbetweenfinancialinclusionand(inverse)

measureoftheruleoflawtermedasweakruleoflaw(withhighernumbersindicatingweakerinstitutionalquality).As

showninthefigure,thereisanegativeassociationbetweenthetwovariablesandCCAcountriestendtobecharacterizedbyaweakerruleoflawcomparedtotheirCEEpeers.Thefourthfactorismacro-financialstability.Macroeconomicinstabilityleadingtofinancialcrisescanleadtoreductioninfinancialservices

provisionasbanksstriveto

restoretheircapitalizationthroughreductionincreditsupply.Similarly,macroeconomicinstabilitycandiscourageeconomicagentsfrom

entrustingtheirsavingstotheformalfinancialsector.Severemacro-financialproblemscanresult

inlargelossesfordepositors

andmemoriesfromtheselossescanlingerforalongperiodoftime.

Figure8presentsthecorrelationbetweenfinancialinclusionand

outputgrowthvolatility(approximatedbythestandarddeviation

overtheperiod2000-5

Theassociationshouldbeinterpretedwithcautiongiventhesmallnumberof

observations

inthecross-section.INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND7IMFWORKINGPAPERSTheAnatomyoftheFinancialInclusionGapinthe

CaucasusandCentralAsia2021).Asshowninthefigure,thereisanegativeassociationbetweenthetwovariables.

However,outputgrowthvolatilityintheCCAcountries

is

comparabletothatof

theirCEEpeers,whichsuggeststhatthisfactormaynotplayabigrole

inhamperingfinancialinclusionin

theCCA.Thefifthfactoristheinefficiencyofthefinancialsector.Moreinefficientfinancial

sectorsarecharacterizedbyhighercostsoffinancialaccess.

Indeed,manysurveyrespondentsreportcostsofopeningandmaintainingfinancialaccounts

asprohibitive.Theoperational

inefficiency

ofthefinancialsectorcanbeproxiedbythe

ratioofoverheadcoststototalassets.Figure9presentstheassociationbetweenfinancialinclusionandoverheadcosts.As

showninthefigure,theassociation

betweenthetwovariablesis

negative.However,thelevelofoverheadcostsvarieswidelyacrossCCAcountriesandtends

tobeonaveragecomparabletothatofCEEpeers.Anothervariablethatcanbe

conducivetoinefficiencyinthebankingsectoris

its

levelofconcentration.

Figure10presentstheassociation

betweenfinancialinclusionandbankingsectorconcentration.Theassociationisnotthatstrong;andbankingsectorconcentrationvariesacrossCCAcountries.

Similar

tooverheadcosts,concentrationintheCCAcountriestendstobeonaveragecomparabletothatofCEEpeers,suggestingthatthisfactormaynotplayabig

roleinhamperingfinancialinclusionintheCCA.Arelatedvariableis

thegeographicaloutreachofthefinancialsector.ThisincludesthenumberofbankbranchesandATMsperadultpopulation.Bothvariablesproxyaccesstofinancialservices,which

enablesfinancialinclusion.Figure11showstheassociationbetweenfinancialinclusionandbankbranchesper100,000adults,whileFigure12showstheassociationbetweenfinancialinclusionandATMsper100,000adults.

Inbothcases,theassociationispositive,

confirmingthat

higherfinancialaccessproxiedbyavailabilityofbankbranchesandATMsisassociationwithgreaterfinancialinclusion.

TheleveloffinancialaccessvariesacrossCCAcountriesbuttendstobeonaveragelowercomparedtothatofCEE,suggesting

thatthisfactormayplayaroleinhamperingfinancialinclusion.III.

FinancialInclusionandIndividualCharacteristics:Empirical

AnalysisA.

EmpiricalSpecificationDrawingonstylizedfactsabove,thissectionquantifies

howindividualcharacteristicsareassociatedwiththeprobabilityoffinancialinclusion

(Allenandothers,2012;Rojas-SuarezandAmado,2014).Theanalysis

isperformedusingindividual-levelsurveydatafromtheGlobalFindexdatabase

forperiods2011,2014,2017,and2021.Theempiricalspecificationtakesthefollowingform:?=

?

+∑?

?

??

+?

+????,?′?(1)???0?=1????????

=

1???

=

0??

??

>

0,????

??

≤

0.??whereindividuals,countries,

andyearsareindexedby

i,

j,

andt,respectively;??

isalatentvariable,xisa???vectorofkindividual

level

characteristics

(age,gender,incomequintile,education

level),?′

aretimedummies?INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND8IMFWORKINGPAPERSTheAnatomyoftheFinancialInclusionGapinthe

CaucasusandCentralAsiafor2011,2014,2017,and2021,and?

isanormallydistributederrortermwith

zeromeanandvarianceofequalto1.Weestimate(1)asaweightedprobitmodelwithmaximumlikelihoodandrobuststandarderrors.Thedependentvariableisa

dummy

takinga

valueof1if

the

individualhas

afinancialaccount.Eachobservationenterstheequationwithaweightthatreflectsindividual’srepresentationat

thenationallevel.B.

EstimationResultsTable1presentsestimationresultsfor

individualCCAcountries

(tocontrolforcountryspecificcharacteristics)andapanelofCEEcomparators.Coefficientson

individualcharacteristicshaveexpectedsignsinmostregressions.??Agehasahump-shapedrelationship,asshownbyapositivelinearcoefficientandnegativequadraticcoefficient.Theprobabilityof

beingfinanciallyincluded

isrisingwithageuntilacertain

point(exceptAzerbaijan,Georgia,andTajikistan).Thereismixedevidence

on

genderbiasinfinancialinclusion(Figure13).BeingafemaleisanobstacletofinancialinclusioninfiveCCAcountries

(Turkmenistan,Tajikistan,Azerbaijan,Armenia,andUzbekistan).Inthese

countries,womenare2-5percentless

likelytohaveafinancialaccountrelativetomen.Overall,theprobabilityofhavingafinancialaccountforbothmenandwomenismuchlowerintheCCAcomparedto

theCEEpeers.???Richerindividualsaremorelikelytohaveafinancialaccount(Figure

14).

Theprobabilityofbeingfinanciallyincludedinthepoorestquintile

israngingbetween14percent(Turkmenistan)and53percent(Kazakhstan),whiletheprobabilityofbeingfinanciallyincludedintherichestquintile

israngingbetween19percent(Turkmenistan)and

64percent(Kazakhstan).InallCCAcountries,theprobabilityofbeingfinanciallyincludedinpoorestandrichestincome

groupislowercomparedtoCEEpeers.Moreeducatedindividualsaremorelikelytohaveafinancialaccount(Figure

15).The

probabilityofbeingfinanciallyincludedis

rangingbetween14

–53percentforindividualswithprimaryeducation,

13–56percentforindividualswithsecondaryeducation,and

12–58percentforindividualswithtertiaryeducation.Acrossall

levelsof

education,theprobabilityof

beingfinanciallyincludedis

lowercomparedtoCEEpeers.Finally,mostCCAcountrieshaveexperiencedanincreaseintheprobabilityoffinancialinclusionbetween2011-2021(Figure

16).Thisincreasehasrangedbetween

1–14percentagepoints

forindividualCCAcountries.CEE

peershaverecordedalargeraverageincreaseof20percentagepointsoverthesameperiod.Insum,theaboveanalysis